17-18 NFL Fantasy Football Top 40 Running Backs

Who tops my list of running backs going into the 2017-2018 NFL season?
  Read on to find out!

With QB rankings posted last, RB rankings are up next.  I’ll be ranking these backs based upon a PPR format.  Later on, I’ll come out with non-PPR rankings as well.  I’ll be doing a top 40 here, as most owners find use for at least 3 running backs on their roster, and a 12 owner league is quite common, that makes at least 40 relevant running backs worth knowing about.  Here they are:


*UPDATE* This list turned into a top 42, as it evolved after Marshawn Lynch came out of retirement and then later again when LaGarrette Blount was signed by the Eagles**

1)      David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Johnson is not only a very effective runner, but also more involved in the passing game than most backs are, catching 5 balls a game last year for 879 total receiving yards.  Any running back that is almost a 1,000 yard rusher AND receiver has to top the charts.

2)      Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Elliot is one of the most talented young backs in the league who benefits from having perhaps the most talented offensive line in the league in front of him.  Last year he was second among all running backs in ESPN standard leagues and I expect similar production this year, perhaps even greater, as he enters his second season and learns NFL defenses better.

3)      Le’veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
“The greatest ability, is availability”, a saying that Bell proves out regularly unfortunately.  As a result, I just can’t count on him as reliably as I can the other two superstar running backs in front of him on this list, resulting in his 3^rd place finish despite being arguably the most talented running back in the league.  I hope he proves me wrong, but until he completes a season without injury or suspension, I just can’t bet on it.

4)      Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
Howard is a running back who finishes top 5 almost by default.  Which is to say, his usage will be through the roof due to lack of talent in the passing game on his team, not necessarily just due to incredible talent of his own.  Last season he did however, average the 7^th most yards per rush attempt in the league, and added nearly 300 yards receiving to that.  If he’s going to continue to get the volume, we should expect top 5 production, and given the state of the Bears’ passing game I expect he continues to get the volume.

5)      Jay  Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
Miami’s big move to help the offense in the off-season was to resign WR Kenny Stills.  Which is great, particularly given the contract they signed him to, but doesn’t drastically improve-or improve at all-their receiving corps, which lead their team to the 26^th ranked passing offense in the league last year.  They’ll have little choice but to continue riding Ajayi as far as he can take them.  I’m not sure how many more 200 yard games he has in him-if any at all-but I’m willing to bet he can put up some fantasy points for owners this upcoming season.

6)      Melvin Gordon, LA Chargers
Gordon showed flashes last year, and ended the year with JUST under 1,000 yards rushing (997) despite missing essentially the last four games.  The concern about Gordon is that he doesn’t catch well (40^th in the league amongst RB in rec/tgt percentage) but when he does, he creates with it (8^th in the league last year in yards per reception).  With Danny Woodhead leaving to Baltimore this spring, Gordon’s volume should go up in the passing game.  If he can pull a few more in, he could really crank up his production this year.  He also needs to stay healthy obviously.  The Chargers picked up Forrest Lamp in the draft, who many compare favorably to Dallas’ Zach Martin, one of the best young guards in the game.  Lamp should help shore up an offensive line in LA that’s been full of holes in recent years.

7)      LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
The Bills ran the ball for the most yards and yards per attempt in the league last year, running 492 total times, second only to Dallas (499).  McCoy ran for 234 of those attempts.  He had health problems in three games last year however, and he’ll be 29 when the season begins.  I think that the Bills are going to start easing back his usage overall, probably by cutting back his involvement in the passing game, which would hurt his value in PPR leagues mostly.  I expect him to still get between 225-275 touches in the run game, providing his health holds up, but I don’t think he’ll catch another 50 balls this year.  The Bills traded up to pick up receiver Zay Jones, who specializes in short passes around the line of scrimmage.  With him as a new dump off option, it’ll cut into McCoy’s catches and production in the receiving game.  His value suffers a bit as a result.

8)      Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
Miller is yet another running back who benefits from having no known quarterback or passing game on the team.  I personally project Deshaun Watson as their day one starter, but I’m not sure that hurts Miller’s value.  Watson won’t be asked to throw the ball a lot I don’t think, and Miller will benefit from that.

9)      Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
Running back value is all about opportunity, the same as receiver value really, but running back value is more driven by what a team has at the quarterback spot, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record already at just rank 9, the 49ers don’t really have any viable options there.  Their passing game as a whole lacks talent, and Hyde may be expected to bear the weight of the offensive load this season.  If he remains healthy, he has the skill set to do just that and become a top ten fantasy running back.

10)   Todd Gurley, LA Rams
Call me gullible if you like, but I’m trying to stay on the Gurley bandwagon despite the disappointing turnout last season.  His last season’s production truly was terrible, averaging 3.18 yards per carry for just 885 total rushing yards despite carrying the ball nearly 300 times.  The line in front of him wasn’t good, and the Rams’ QB situation has been a joke, allowing teams to stack the box against Gurley and shut him down.  I’m hoping a new coaching staff can help fix these problems, and turn Gurley into a productive fantasy back again.  I promise now however, this will be the last time I fall for the Gurley bandwagon if he flops this season again.

11)   Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have made clear their desire to run the ball more as an effort to combat their terrible quarterback who they just can’t seem to say good-bye to yet.  The offensive line in Jacksonville has continued to be a problem, particularly in the form of injuries.  The inconsistency along the line has hurt the production offensively, and could serve to limit Fournette’s production as well, outweighing his undeniable talent.

12)   DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans
Murray settled into his new home in Tennessee pretty nicely last season, splitting carries 3 to 1 with backup Derrick Henry, with both averaging just about 4.4 yards per carry.  Murray does the bulk of the Titan’s RB work in the passing game however, boosting his value and landing him here just outside the top 10.

13)   Devontae Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Freeman took the league by storm two years ago, becoming the most productive back in fantasy, then just as unexpectedly by most fell off a bit last season, finishing outside the top 5 running backs in the league in overall fantasy point production.  While 6^th best running back isn’t terrible, a lot of people were drafting this guy in the first half of the first round last year, and he simply didn’t live up to the billing.

14)   Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
Lynch makes his return to the NFL this fall for  his hometown (for now) Raiders.  With their decision to move to Vegas, but not for two years, the Raiders are in a somewhat interesting PR nightmare when it comes to selling tickets.  Many Oakland fans feel betrayed and don’t want to support the team any longer, and the new fan base is several hours away.  Enter hometown hero superstar offensive player.  The Raiders signed Lynch for two years-the remainder of their stay in the bay area.  I think they intend to ride Lynch to good sales, and you can only do that by handing him the ball.  I expect him to get the ball at least 10-15 times per game in the run game, probably 15-20 if he proves to be productive.  Murray ran for 4 yards per carry behind this line, I think Lynch should be able to do the same.  Murray put up 12 touchdowns, the conservative in me will project Lynch for 10.  If you can grab him around here, do so, I think it’s all reward and not much risk.

15)   Bilal Powell, NY Jets
While Powell ran for single digit attempts each week the first 12 weeks of the season last year, in the final quarter he ran for 29, 16, 15, and 22 attempts respectively, shouldering the bulk of the rushing load and fueling speculation amongst fantasy experts that he will top the depth chart in New York in the upcoming season.  Powell catches the ball well, and with Marshall moving to the other NY team, there will be a lot of offensive production to make up.  Powell should cash in on some of that, as perhaps the only decent player on the offense other than Decker.

16)   Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs
Last year Ware shouldered the rushing load for the Chiefs, piling up more attemps than the rest of the team combined, and 921 rushing yards in the process.  Limiting his value a bit, is the fact that he found the end zone just 3 times over the course of the season.  His average of 4.3 yards per carry is reasonable, but he simply needs to find the end zone more often in order to really produce fantasy points for owners this year.

17)   Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
For a while last season, the Browns lead the league in rushing, and with a quarterback group that currently features Cody Kessler, Deshon Kizer, and Brock Osweiler, their reluctance on the running game is not likely to change much this season.  Owners of Crowell can be the beneficiaries of the front office’s inability to find NFL caliber talent to play the QB position.

18)   Eddie Lacy, Seattle Seahawks
I think the Seahawks’ off-season moves give away their intention to refocus on a power running game.  Lacy will be given the first opportunity to produce in the starter’s role, and I believe it may just be his last chance in the league overall.  His contract is about half made up of incentives, centering around a somewhat infamous weight bonus, requiring him to stay at a certain (unknown to the public) weight.  If Lacy can manage to stay in shape, this could be the back the Seahawks have been looking for to fill Lynch’s shoes.

19)   Joe Mixon, Cincinatti Bengals
There is only one way to battle bad PR in pro sports; production on the field/court/whatever.  The Bengals knew exactly what they were getting into when they drafted the troubled young back, and as the team in the NFL with possibly the most experienced dealing with troubled young players, they know handing him the ball is the best way to keep his head in the game.  Cincinatti needs to take the pressure off star receiver AJ Green and TE Tyler Eifert, who both suffered injuries last year and physically may need the break, and neither Jeremy Hill nor Giovani Bernard have ever truly claimed the starter role in the past.  I think they intend to make Mixon their feature back as a result of all these factors.

20)   Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Going into the draft, the Vikings had Latavius Murray atop their depth chart at running back, but coming out of it most project Cook to be their new starter in that position.  Their line didn’t get much better however, and if Adrian Peterson can’t perform behind it, I’m not sure I’m willing to bet a rookie running back with fumbling issues and a slightly smaller frame can, but opportunity so often equals productivity in this league that he’ll be worth a pick later in the draft.

21)   Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens
Woodhead’s value is entirely based off of one question: who else does Flacco have to throw the ball to?  Mike Wallace tops his list of receivers, followed by Michael Campanaro (who?) and Breshard Perriman, a fast but fragile receiver who caught just 33 balls in 16 games last year.

22)   Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
While many experts have McCaffrey projected higher than this, I’m just not certain.  It’s not that I doubt McCaffrey’s skill set-quite the opposite, I think he’s very talented-it’s just that it’s not in QB Cam Newton’s nature to dump the ball off.  He’d almost always rather go head up with a defender and trust his legs, over someone else’s hands.  I worry Newton holds onto the ball too much for McCaffrey’s value to match his expectations, at least in their first year together.

23)   Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers
Montgomery is an interesting player who was either a WR or RB last season, and put up about 400 yards both receiving and rushing despite not really playing during the first quarter of the season.  However, 400 yards rushing isn’t really anything to get excited over, and given the fact the Packers drafted several running backs I don’t think that changes very much.  His value in standard scoring leagues will be even lower than this.

24)   LaGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles
Last season, Blount lead the league in touchdowns, as one of just 7 running backs to run double digit touchdowns in.  He played on a team who ran it third most in the league, as one of the best offensive juggernauts in the league.  He played with a hall of fame bound QB and for a hall of fame bound coach.  He played in a system that he was playing in for his fourth season (not consecutively) and for an offensive coordinator he knows.  Despite all of that, he finished just 7^th in standard leagues for fantasy scoring from the RB position, and even lower in PPR formats.  This year, I’m projecting him for about 2/3 the attempts, limiting his production to between 700-800 yards and 10-12 touchdowns in my opinion.  He’s almost completely uninvolved in the passing game throughout his whole career, so that would put him between 130-152 fantasy points on the year.  About 16 running backs will pick up at least 40 points in receptions alone in PPR leagues, then adding in another 50 or so from their yards receiving and rushing, and you’re looking at basically 16 players whose floors are about 140.  Blount’s ceiling is about 170, with a likely point total of about 140-their floor.  I’ve got him falling outside the top 20 here, in what I think will be the final year of his career.

25)   CJ Anderson, Denver Broncos
I know many fantasy experts have Anderson projected higher, and I’ll be the first to admit it if I turn out to be wrong, but I’m just not a believer in Anderson.  It’s not even Anderson.  I’m not a believer in Denver’s offensive line, or offensive unit as a whole.  With basically nobody at QB, teams can stack the box a bit against Anderson, who averaged just 4 yards per carry last season, managing to put up just 437 yards total.  Granted he was hurt for a large portion of the year, but I just don’t see how much has changed.  Their line is still terrible, and their QB position unsure.  There’s certainly some talent there, but nobody can do it by themselves.

26)   Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
I expect Peterson to cut into Ingram’s carries and production if he remains healthy, pushing Ingram down to 24^th in my  rankings.  I just haven’t ever gotten the feeling that Payton really likes Ingram, he doesn’t seem to want to use him as a feature type back, and it hurts his value for fantasy owners every season.  This season with a hall of famer as an option behind him, I don’t think will be the year that pattern stops.

27)   Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts
There’s not a lot of excitement-and understandably so-over the aging running back, but Gore has put up more than 1,000 yards in 9 of his 12 seasons, and played in all 16 games all of the last 6 years.  Consistency, availability, reliability, and experience combine to make him a fringe RB2 option in my eyes.

28)   Theo Reddick, Detroit Lions
Reddick tops teammate and projected starter Ameer Abdullah only because this is a PPR listing.  The Lions’ running game primarily features Reddick CATCHING the ball, as they use short dumps and screen passes in place of hand offs, generating points for fantasy owners in PPR leagues as an unintended consequence.  Last season, Reddick only rushed for 350 yards, but he caught 53 balls despite only appearing in 10 games.  This was highlighted by an 8 catch, 77 yard performance against one of the league’s best defenses, the Texans.

29)   Telvin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
The Coleman-Freeman split in Atlanta has favored Freeman for the past two seasons at least in part due to Coleman’s struggles with staying healthy.  If can stay healthy this season, he just might pick up a few more carries and/or catches, enabling him to climb up a bit on this list.

30)   Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
Stewart is on the back end of his career, and could be in line to lose his starting job to rookie Christian McCaffrey this year.  If the Panthers struggle to incorporate McCaffrey into the short passing game like they intend to, Stewart may be relied upon a bit more to produce on the ground, but Stewart has been underwhelming recently, and I have no reason to think that will change drastically.

31)   Jeremy Hill, Cincinatti Bengals
If Mixon leap frogs Hill and Bernard on the depth chart, they’ll be lucky to find themselves in the top 40 running backs when we look back on the year.

32)   Dion Lewis, New England Patriots
There are simply too many running backs in New England to project either who will carry the biggest load or what that biggest load might look like.  Lewis would seem to be the best of the group, but if the work load is spread about evenly, it’ll be hard for any running back on the team to crack the top 30.

33)   Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings
A month ago, Murray topped the Vikings’ depth chart at the RB position.  Today, most analysts have him projected as the third option behind the rookie Dalvin Cook and second year running back Jerick McKinnon.  While it’s hard to imagine the Vikings signing him and not really using him, it’s also hard to imagine them drafting a young talent like Cook and not playing him.  Don’t overdraft Murray this year.

34)   Giovani Bernard, Cincinatti Bengals
Bernard and Hill have been kind of six in one hand, half dozen in the other for years now, in the Cincinatti backfield.  They both have the occasional big game, but they’re impossible to project, and wildly inconsistent.

35)   Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions
As mentiond above, the Lions simply don’t run the ball very much.  Their running game primarily is made up of short, quick passes.  This boosts Stafford’s value and the PPR value of Reddick, but hurts Abdullah’s potential production.

36)   CJ Prosise, Seattle Seahawks
Prosise is a talented young back who can catch the ball, make tacklers miss, and produce yards.  He’s currently projected as second on the depth chart in Seattle, and should take up the work on passing downs from starter Eddie Lacy.  Whether or not that turns into consistent fantasy production-even in PPR leagues-remains to be seen.

37)   Matt Forte, NY Jets
Forte’s production fell off a cliff in the latter part of last season, as the 31 year old running back may have hit his age limit.  Many running backs fall completely off the cliff around the same age Forte is now (31, 32 in December), and while he occupies a spot on the depth chart, I just don’t see a major role for him this year.

38)   Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints
While I am loathe to bet against Adrian Peterson, I’m also aware he’s had increasing health issues over the past couple of seasons, and will be the backup on a team that MUCH prefers the pass to the run.  It’ll be interesting to see how he fits in, but I don’t foresee top 20 or even top 30 running back fantasy production.

39)   Mike Gilleslee, New England Patriots
Gilleslee is talented, but suffers along with the rest of the Patriots’ running backs from a horrible fantasy sickness known as “too many cooks in the kitchen” syndrome.  No Patriot running back is listed in the top 30 currently, and I don’t see that changing barring injuries throughout the season.

40)   Robert Kelly, Washington Redskins
Washington ran 27^th most often, but 9^th most effectively.  Samaje Perine may unseat Kelley from week one however, and be the beneficiary of increased usage.

41)   Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles
Sproles rushed for just over 400 yards last season, but he piled on another 400 yards receiving on 50 receptions, making him a decent option in PPR leagues.

42)   Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins
As mentioned above, Perine may be poised to take the starter’s role in Washington from day one.  The team rushed very effectively last season, a top ten team rushing per attempt, and if that continues next season, Perine should be the surprise of the season for casual viewers.

NBA: 5 Trade Targets for the Boston Celtics Not Named Jimmy or Paul...

Can Celtics GM Danny Ainge convert his ability to stockpile

assets into a true superstar that will push the Celtics to the next

level?  Nobody knows what his plans are, but he's promised big

changes to the roster for the opening of next season.

I've been hearing trade rumors swirling around the Boston Celtics for what seems like years, and 99% of them seem to center around the same two names; Paul George and Jimmy Butler.  This past weekend, I started seeing posts circulate asking Celtics fans about targeting Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans as a trade target, which was recently a suggestion of A. Sherrod Blakely, of CSNNE,  now the proud owner of not only what is certainly the douchiest name in Boston sports coverage, but now perhaps also the most ridiculous trade suggestion in recent local sports memory.  Given this desperate attempt at generating views for himself out of Blakely, I figured I'd give Celtics fans 5 more realistic potential trade targets for the C's this summer NOT named Paul George or Jimmy Butler.  Here you go:

1) Klay Thompson G/F, Golden State Warriors
If the Warriors win a second ring this June, there are some who think Klay might want to be the star of his own team, instead of the fourth option in Golden State again, and why not?  Instead of moving up in the pecking order, with the acquisition of Kevin Durant he's actually moved down, and despite the success on the court it's got to be frustrating.  Most professional athletes feel they're just as good as anybody else, and it's got to bother Klay that he's not the first or second option, and some nights not even the third.
In Boston, he'd be the first option.  He'd put up 25 points per night, he'd lead a big city team deep into the playoffs every year, he'd have epic battles against one of the best players ever in the conference finals every year and eventually he'd likely be the one to knock Lebron off the top of the mountain, or he'd at least have a great chance to be.  He'd be complimented by great young talent around him, and a solid organization that knows how to build a team, how to treat their players, and how to find championship success.
If I were Danny Ainge, he would be my first target.  I'd give up as much as Crowder, Bradley, and next year's Nets pick if I could get him for that.  It would make sense for Golden State also, as they're going to need to start saving some money fast on payroll if they don't want to start setting records there-and what owner does?  Crowder has one of the most team friendly contracts in the league, and Bradley is under contract at a reasonable rate for one more year, which would get them through to potentially drafting Luka Doncic in next year's top three.  It'd be an offer worth consideration at very least for both sides.

2) Andre Drummond C, Detroit Pistons
Until I started really thinking about the possibility of getting Thompson, Drummond was my preferred target for the C's.  He solves all of their immediate problems: lack of rebounding, lack of interior presence, and desire for youth that you know can succeed in the NBA.  He can.  He might not be a great free throw shooter, but he would average almost 20 boards a game in Boston, and at 6-11, 260 is 40 pounds heavier than any big man the Celtics currently have on the roster, giving them a bigger body at the rim to stop the charging freight train that is Lebron James during those late playoff battles in the years to come between the two franchises.
I've heard Drummond and SVG are on the outs, and SVG has had issues in the past, connecting to young big men.  I think he could be had, and since it's not often that 23 year old big men who you KNOW can be great in the NBA are on the market for lower than what their market value should be, you pull that trigger if you can.  I think Detroit would have to throw in the #12 overall pick this year, but then I think you start with offering the 2018 Nets pick along with maybe a 2019 pick (I'm thinking Clippers') and maybe toss in a player for right now like Zeller.  Then use that 12th pick to go grab a stretch four in the draft, there are a few decent ones that should be on the board like Lauri Markkanen, Ivan Rabb, or one of the Collins big men.  In this scenario you either keep this year's Brooklyn pick or next, so either way Boston is stocked with young talent.  OR they keep the ammunition to pursue another trade.  You'll notice that they could conceivably trade for both Klay AND Drummond if the offers I outlined here worked out, with a Nets pick going to both teams, and players going to Golden State for Klay.  Imagine a Boston starting lineup next season of IT-Klay-Brown-Horford-Drummond with Smart, maybe Green, maybe Amir if you can bring him back cheap, and a few other guys coming off the bench.  I think Celtic fans could get excited about it.

3) DeAndre Jordan C, Los Angeles Lakers
Jordan is another guy who like Drummond, solves all the Celtics' current basketball problems.  I'm not even sure you'd have to include a Nets' pick with the offer, maybe you could get by with the Celtics' pick next season, one or both of the Memphis and LA Clippers' 2019 picks, and say Zeller for him at this point?  Maybe the Clippers throw in some more of their own and get a Nets pick back?  They need to blow things up over there, they just need someone to give them a reason to.  Getting that Fultz pick would be HUGE in that it would allow them to let CP3 walk, they'd trade away DJ, and have more than enough cap space to resign Blake and bring in a few other pieces around him and Fultz to stay contending.
From the Celtics' side, it makes sense if you can get Jordan on the relative cheap.  I really don't want to see a Nets pick go for Jordan.  The difference between he and Drummond being about 5 years age difference, you just have more potential life in Drummond's career.  Plus the Pistons have the 12th overall to throw in, the Clippers don't have any valuable trade assets really.  It's actually almost kind of sad looking for something they could throw into the deal.  For that reason, I don't think this one happens, but I think Jordan is a guy you at least call about, maybe a third team can help make things work?

4) DeMar DeRozan SG, Toronto Raptors
I know DeRozan has said he loves Toronto, wants to stay there, takes pride in what they've built, etc.  I just wonder if that all changes if Lowry leaves and he starts looking around and feeling very lonely?  On foreign soil, surrounded by foreign players, with his backcourt partner of the past 5 seasons gone and the team potentially moving in the wrong direction, does he start seeing greener pastures elsewhere really fast?  Even before returning to Toronto?  The Celtics could dangle that 2018 Nets' pick for DeRozan and feel relatively good about what they'd get back.  A top tier two guard at the beginning of his prime, with room for growth who wants to win.  He's got the size (6-7, 221), and the skills to lead a team deep into the playoffs, and could be a great scorer alongside IT in the backcourt in Boston.  I'm not sure this could happen, but it's an interesting thought, and would depend heavily on what happens with Kyle Lowry.

5) LaMarcus Aldridge PF, San Antonio Spurs
It's become something of the worst kept secret in the league that the Spurs would love to be rid of their biggest mistake in recent memory.  Since signing with San Antonio, Aldridge's career has languished.  He's been a poor fit overall, with his ppg dipping below 20 for the first time since 2010, and his rebounds per game falling below double digits when he'd posted numbers of 11.1 and 10.2 in his final two years with the Trailblazers.
Part of the poor fit is Kawhi Leonard's unexpected explosive development as a superstar, forcing the Spurs to center the offense more around him and his developing game-which fits better into where the league is going than a faceup 4 like Aldridge does-and move away from an offensive gameplan centered around Aldridge.  Aldridge would fit well alongside Horford, giving the Celtics two players who can score, see the floor well, and are a threat with the ball in their hands.  And his cost would have to be relatively cheap, the Spurs would likely love to dump him off to anyone that would take him at whatever they could get back at this point, and it would really open them up for their rumored pursuit of Chris Paul this summer, who most would assume would love to go ring chase under Pop's system.

There are a great many options for the Celtics this upcoming summer, and the roster WILL look VERY different on opening day next season if they're successful in this off-season.  I'm not going to beg for your "clicks" and views by making ridiculous suggestions like the Celtics could end up with Anthony Davis next season, but I will bring you realistic, logical potential trade targets that the team should at least think about, and that fans might want to marinate on, just in case any of these scenarios come to fruition, and we see any of the above players in green next year.

Stay tuned as I'll be posting my NBA Mock Draft in the next few days!

Tampa Bay: Fantasy Football Fool's Gold?

There's been a great deal of excitement building up around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this off-season, and for many good reasons.  They've got a young, talented QB who was picked first overall, a big, young star wide receiver entering the prime of his career, and they made several moves in the off-season that should arm that young QB with talented weapons all over the field in the passing game, from Evans mentioned above to young tight end Cameron Brate, and including newcomers DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard.  That being said, I think there might be a bit too much excitement about these guys when it comes to fantasy production, and I'll tell you all why.

Jameis Winston has to be who I talk about first, as the QB of this team.  Last season, he ranked 15th overall at the QB position, down from 13th overall in his rookie season.  While his fans will point to throwing for more than 4,000 yards for the second season in a row, and his 28 to 19 TD/INT split overall on the year, what worries me is the final six weeks.  Over that time, the Bucs faced New Orleans twice (Last ranked pass defense in 2016), Carolina (29th ranked pass def), Dallas (26th ranked pass def), Seattle (8th ranked), and San Diego (now LA Chargers, who were 20th in pass def last season).  That's only one top ten pass defense and the rest somewhere south of 20, if not dead last.  Two games against the worst pass defense.  Over that time, Winston threw 117/189 (61.9%, good for 19th in the league) for 8 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 1,410 yards (good for 7.46 per attempt, 13th in the league).  And this was against again some of the worst passing defenses in the league.  In one of those games (Carolina) he had a QBR in the 40's.  It was a terrible stretch, and it's hard to forget for someone who owned him last season.
Mike Evans is who I have to target next.  He's a big target, and with the Bucs' struggling to find other players to produce on offense, Winston targeted him often.  MOST often in the league, with 175 targets over the year.  Evans was only able to convert 54% of those targets into catches however, making him the worst catch rate receiver amongst those targeted at least 100 times.  And it wasn't just last season, every year he's hovered around 52-55% catch rate.  I expect his target count to go down to something more like 125 over the course of the year.  With his averages, that should turn into something like 60 catches for 800 yards.  1,000 yards would be a rosy projection in my opinion.
The running back position was a mess of injuries and general instability last season.  While the running backs often produced some fantasy value, it was hit or miss as to whether or not they'd play that week.  Between Jackson, Brate, and Howard, as well as Evans, I expect Winston to throw it 35 times per game or so, splitting those targets reasonably evenly/appropriately.  75-125 targets for each, based on how he settles in with them.  It's hard to tell how comfortable he'll feel with DeSean right now, or if Howard will produce fantasy points in the NFL.  I really feel like I need to see it to trust it.
That's my take on the Bucs.  I know the excitement around them is rising now, and I also know that with hard knocks it'll only increase, but I'm having a tough time buying in on them, and will be generally leaving them alone in fantasy drafts this season.

Could the Lakers Pass on Lonzo Ball?

With the Ball family circus haven taken center stage when it comes to NBA draft talk over the past few months, everyone seems resigned to the idea that Lonzo Ball will in fact be a Laker next year, because Lavar says he will.  Well, simply put; I’m not so sure.  I’ve put together a list of 5 scenarios under which Lonzo Ball does not become a Laker this summer (or perhaps ever) regardless of his father’s wishes.  Here they are:

                                                                                    1)      Boston doesn’t draft Fultz
     

      The most likely scenario under which LA doesn’t draft Lonzo Ball in my opinion, is that the Celtics don’t draft Fultz.  Boston doesn’t need a point guard, what they do need is a versatile forward/wing player who can defend, has range, and can contribute elsewhere such as rebounding, etc.  Josh Jackson would give them all of that.  This writer for one, doesn’t see Fultz as any kind of lock as the number one pick.  I think Jackson makes A LOT more sense for them.  This creates scenario one in which Ball falls past the Lakers: because they draft Fultz, who many see as a young Westbrook type player.

      2)      The Lakers trade their pick for an established player
      Los Angeles has never been a team that really believed in building through the draft.  Magic being the one exception, they’ve typically traded for established players, sometimes trading those very picks away in the process.  This summer, many believe Paul George of the Pacers, and Jimmy Butler of the Bulls to be on the trade market, and it may just be too much for new President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson and GM Rob Pilenka to resist, they just might have to pull the trigger on one of those trades.  That would eliminate them from the Lonzo Ball sweepstakes, as they’d no longer have a lottery pick.

      3)      The Lakers like Fox better
Most consider Ball and Fultz to be the top two picks in the draft, and the best two players, but I’m not sure I’d call it a consensus.  It’s a well known fact that De’Aaron Fox outplayed Lonzo Ball in the NCAA tournament this past March, and is considered a better defender than Ball overall.  The Lakers may just decide to go with the better defensive, proven clutch performer in Fox over Ball, who some view to have collapsed a bit when the pressure was on in March.  So option three, the Lakers pick someone who isn’t Ball OR Fultz.

      4)      The Lakers draft a forward
The Lakers are another team like Boston, that despite the desire to mock a point guard to them, and despite the obvious talent at the position in this particular draft class, they kind of don’t need a point guard.  Let’s not forget, they spent the second overall pick on DeAngelo Russell two years ago.  Back then, everyone thought they needed a big man and would take Okafor, they threw us all for a loop and took Russell.  This time, maybe they do the opposite, and surprise us all by taking a forward to play alongside Julius Randle in the front court, a scorer like Jayson Tatum, or even Josh Jackson, who I mentioned earlier as a versatile wing with range and good defense.

      5)      The Lakers trade back for depth
Finally, the least likely option I see for a scenario under which Lonzo Ball does not become a Laker: they trade back in the draft for depth.  Again, I don’t see this as a likely option.  However, a team that lost as many games as the Lakers do, and is losing their first round pick to Philly next year, could always use two top ten draft picks in a deep draft couldn’t they?  Many might consider that the smart move in fact.  The Kings have the 5^th and 10^th picks, and perhaps they could be persuaded to deal for the 2^nd overall pick.  I think their owner could be one who buys into the Ball family circus hook, line, and sinker, he just strikes me as the type.  And Magic and Vlade obviously have some history/know each other.  I’m sure they could work together.  In such a scenario, the Lakers could then pick up two lottery picks in what many consider to be the best draft in years.  That’d be a pretty good way to start off the Magic Johnson era.  And almost everyone knows when it comes to drafting, taking multiple bites at the apple is the tried and true method.  Not usually taking the first overall pick.  Basketball can be different, but in a draft class like this…the depth is pretty tempting.

17-18 Fantasy Football Top 30 QBs

These rankings are not a “who is the best QB” necessarily.  They are not even a “who is the best team” listing, or necessarily a combination of those two things.  What they are, is a list of who I believe will be the highest scoring quarterbacks in fantasy football in the upcoming NFL season, from 1-30.  I may believe certain QB’s to be ranked higher talent wise than they appear on the list below, but this list reflects in part their opportunity, how many times they’ll throw, and the targets they have to throw to.  The best quarterback in the world doesn’t make a difference if his receivers can’t catch, his line doesn’t keep him upright, or the defense can drop 6 into coverage every play because there’s no run game to speak of.  Those QB’s won’t get you fantasy points.

One last note; while I looked at lists of the experts on various major sports sites after comprising my own list, I did not alter my list based upon theirs, only used those lists to compare where I have mine, to overall consensus projections or popular projections around the net.

1)      Tom Brady, NE Patriots
Brady is simply the best quarterback in the history of the league, with a full arsenal of talented weapons at his disposal.  I expect this season to rival the 2007 season with Moss and Welker as his top targets.   For him anyway, I expect production at the receiver spot in New England to be a bit more spread out than it was in that year.

2)      Drew Brees, NO Saints
Brees  has put up 5,000 passing yards and 37+ passing touchdowns in 4 of the last 6 seasons, and I expect more of the same this year.  While he did lose one of his main weapons this off-season when Cooks was traded to New England, the Saints’ have always thrown the ball a lot, and Drew Brees fantasy owners have been the beneficiary of all that throwing for many years now.

3)      Aaron Rodgers, GB Packers
Many have Rodgers atop their lists, and rank him the best QB in the league currently.  From my perspective, Brady is the best, and has more weapons.  Brees has a better system for generating passing production, so those two rank ahead of Rodgers on my list.  But Rodgers will put up his numbers, as he has every year since he began starting.  The return of Jordy Nelson meant a lot to his game last year, he’ll continue to produce this season however, with little running game to fall back on still.

4)      Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan took the league by surprise last year, finally taking that “next step” that we’ve all been waiting for since he was drafted first overall in 2008.  While there is some worry for me that Kyle Shanahan was finally the key to unlocking that next level, and now that he’s gone Ryan will regress, I’m not going to take such a pessimistic outlook until I see things start to fall apart on the field.  However that possibility remains in the back of my mind, must be mentioned, and keeps Ryan out of the top 3 on my list.

5)      Andrew Luck, Indy Colts
While some fans still view Luck as a “bust” or failure, and he hasn’t lead his team to many wins yet, his fantasy production has been solid, and was very good last year.  He throws to one of the most productive wideouts in the league, in T.Y. Hilton, and has guys with great hands like Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett behind him.  The team around him isn’t getting much better year to year that I’ve seen, but I expect his individual development to continue, keeping him in the top 5 of QB production this season, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see guys like Cam or even Wilson go in drafts before him.

6)      Eli Manning, NY Giants
It’s been a while since Eli has found his way into a preseason top ten I put together, in fact he may never have, but with the upgrading of his weapons by bringing in Brandon Marshall, and the continued presence of Odell Beckham Jr on the roster, I have a hard time seeing him fall outside the top ten in fantasy production.  The Giants weren’t great with the running game last year, and didn’t really upgrade it this off-season, so I expect them to throw a lot, producing a great deal of points for his fantasy owners.  He’ll go later than guys below him on this list, which will give you the edge over other owners in your league.

7)      Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Stafford continues to produce fantasy points via tons of passing yards and touchdowns.  While his protection remains shaky, and his weapons are basically the same, he benefits over other QB’s as the Lions basically use the short passing game as their running game, allowing Stafford to pile up yards and points when other QB’s are simply handing the ball off to their lead back.  Look for Stafford to be a solid “QB One” this upcoming season.

8)      Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m higher on Winston than most experts whose rankings I’ve seen, but I really think he’s perfectly positioned for that third year leap.  His coaching has been stable for that time essentially under Koetter (first as OC, then as HC) the whole time and into this third season, and his weapons have been added to, as the Bucs brought in a speedy big play threat in DeSean Jackson and drafted top tight end prospect OJ Howard with their first pick in the draft.

9)      Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
To me, Taylor is a QB that flies under the radar.  A high floor due to rushing, and Rex Ryan getting out of his way (he ruins offensive players, look at his history), Taylor has the tools to repeat as a top ten range QB in fantasy production.

10)   Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
Do you like that ranking Kirk Cousins owners?  A solid QB 1, Cousins should turn in another top ten performance in what feels like his 30^th essential “contract year” under the franchise tag.  He’s lost a couple weapons with Garcon going to San Fran and Jackson headed to Tampa Bay, but the Redskins brought in Pryor to play the receiver spot, and that should give him a talented target with whom he can link up for quite a few catches and yards.

11)   Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
To me, it looks like the Seahawks are poised to recommit to the run game this season.  With few tackle options available either in free agency or the draft, they were unable to really help a line that struggled to pass protect last season.  Instead, the drafted two interior linemen and signed a hefty bruising running back in free agency, bringing in Eddie Lacy on a contract whose worth will be roughly 50% determined by his production and ability to maintain a healthy playing weight.  I think the whole formula results in a lot less passing-and thus scrambling for rushing yards also-from Wilson, and obviously an ensuing drop in his fantasy valu

12)   Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben sits at the helm of what many consider to be the most potent offense in the NFL next season, complete with arguably the best receiver in the game and inarguably the best running back in the league when healthy and available to play.  The Steelers have been having trouble staying on the field over the past few seasons, and Ben is getting older these days, so much so that he spoke about the potential for retirement at the end of last season, although he obviously did come back at the end of the day.  If this offensive unit can stay mostly healthy-including Ben himself-they could really generate a lot of fantasy points and make me look foolish for projecting him this low, but Ben has missed 6 games over the past two seasons and only played 16 games three times in his career, so chances are he misses at least a couple games, hurting his overall fantasy value a bit.

13)   Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Carr excited a lot of fans last season, and looks to lead the Raiders out of Oakland and into the promised land in the near future.  Or at least into Vegas.  Maybe the playoffs again…and again over the coming years?  Carr is certainly equipped with talented receivers in Crabtree and Cooper to catch his passes, but the team looks to be transitioning to a more run heavy game over the next two seasons at least after signing hometown running back stud Marshawn Lynch to play out their time in Oakland.  Riding Lynch heavily works for the organization on many levels, but cuts into potential fantasy production for Carr’s owners.

14)   Phillip Rivers, LA Chargers
Rivers can often be a bit of a forgotten quarterback in fantasy rankings, but fantasy owners would be wise to remember that over the past four seasons he’s consistently put up 4300-4700 passing yards and 29-33 passing touchdowns per season, reliably putting up fantasy points despite a constantly changing receiving corps due to injury and a line that couldn’t pass block to save their lives in front of him.  He’s been sacked 142 times over that same four seasons-up significantly from his first four years as a starter with the Chargers, when he was sacked just 99 total times.  LA did add a young receiver in this year’s draft, picking up Mike Williams, a 6-4 receiver out of Clemson Rivers can target in the passing game.  They also added this year’s top interior offensive lineman in Forrest Lamp, so they may be able to shore  up some of those pass protection issues.

15)   Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott took the league by storm last season, putting up one of the best-if not the best rookie season we’ve ever seen from the quarterback position.  He benefits from perhaps the best offensive line in the league, with 4 of 5 starters returning and a fully established receiving corps.  He also has a superstar running back in Ezekiel Elliot alongside him, taking a great deal of pressure off Prescott’s arm.  While that’s good for his overall development, it doesn’t help those owners that will overdraft him this year based off last year’s excitement.  Don’t be that owner.  I’ve got him ranked as a QB 2 this season.

16)   Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings
Last season Bradford was able to step in for an injured Teddy Bridgewater and have a much better season than most expected out of him in Philadelphia OR in Minnesota.  But he was able to play well, and I expect that to only continue this season, as he benefits from a full off-season and a second year in the same offense.  Adding rookie offensive weapon Dalvin Cook in the draft will help the offense as a whole, which will in turn help Bradford.  He could very well out perform this spot, but due to his limited options in the passing game being basically Stefon Diggs on a flier every now and then, Kyle Rudolph or Dalvin Cook on a short dump, it’s hard to see how his production explodes at all.

17)   Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton had a tough year last season, seeing a dip in production across the board statistically, disappointing many a fantasy owner.  For those willing to take a chance on him again, I’ve got him ranked as a mid  1 next season.  I think McCaffrey helps open up the offense’s options a bit, but I also think there might be some growing pains there just in terms of what Newton has always done and how quickly he grows comfortable dumping the ball off instead of scrambling himself.  If he’s able to grow comfortable doing that, and Kelvin Benjamin is able to stay in playing shape and healthy, his production through the air should increase and he could see his fantasy value increase.  Until then, I have a hard time ranking him any higher than this.

18)   Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Palmer is a QB definitely on the downside of his career.  Many saw the Cardinals as the perfect landing spot for many of the rookie QB’s drafted in this year’s draft, but Arizona stood pat at the QB position, instead adding some playmakers in the back 7 on defense and some depth throughout the offensive unit.  Palmer may have one more year left in him, although the Cardinals will undoubtedly ride David Johnson heavily, as he’s turned out to be quite the running back.  Palmers production will drop off in response to Johnson’s increased usage.

19)   Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Mariota is one of the exciting young prospects in the league, and also a QB considered to have something of a high floor due to his ability to run when necessary.  He’s got two of the best young bookend tackles in the league in Lewan and Conklin, and decent targets in Mathews and Walker, but I’m not sure those two are really the tools he needs to make that next jump in productivity.  In years to come, Mariota will be a top fantasy producer I believe, but it just won’t be this year, he’s a low end QB 2 for me.

20)   Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
There have been times when Dalton lead the entire league in fantasy production, but I don’t think we’ll see another one of those times in the 17-18 season.  While he still has supserstar talent AJ Green to throw to, the Bengals have struggled since seeing their other top targets move on last off-season.  While they added a receiver in the draft, he’s had health issues in the past and I’m a bit concerned about his durability at the next level.  I worry he might be another Kevin White, and just want to see him take a few NFL hits before I count on him for regular production, or use him as a reason for boosting Dalton’s stock reciprocally.

21)   Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz made a bit of a splash last season, then faded back to average rookie status in the second half of the year.  The Eagles added Alshon Jeffrey on a one year “prove it” type of deal, but he’s also had health issues in the past and he’s a hard guy to rely on as a result.  I kind of hope Wentz out performs this prediction, but I don’t think that he will.

22)   Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith is nothing if he’s not reliable.  A middle of the pack, reliable, not dazzling quarterback, and it shows in his numbers , where he puts up around 3300 passing yards and 18-20 passing touchdowns each season for the past four years.  I expect roughly the same output this year.

23)   Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins turned it around a bit last season under their new head coach, and may continue down that path in 2017.  However, they turned it around primarily behind a dominating running game-not the passing game-and I don’t see any real reasons to be too exicted about Tannehill’s potential for fantasy impact in 2017.

24)   Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have all but announced that they will run the ball A LOT more this season, and doing so will cut significantly into Bortles’ production for fantasy owners.  I expect the Jags to try to give Bortles a chance to slow things down and develop a bit behind a strong running game before deciding whether they want him long term or not next off-season.  Look for his attempts to drop off drastically, and his yardage total as well probably.  His completion percentage should rise though.

25)   Joe Flacco
Flacco has all the arm talent in the world.  Unfortunately, he also has basically all the cap space on the Ravens, and ever since signing his massive deal hasn’t been surrounded with any kind of real talent on offense.  That continues to be the case heading into the 2017 season.  Flacco will have a hard time finding any receivers to throw to, and due to that, will also have a hard time putting up fantasy points, leaving him 25^th in my rankings.

26)   Mike Glennon
Glennon was signed as the Bears’ starter, then they threw us all for a loop and sunk a ton of draft capital into drafting QB Mitchell Trubisky second overall in the draft.  Glennon must be having flashbacks to the drafting of Winston, but the reports are still that Glennon will be the starter and Trubisky is there to learn basically, so going with that, Glennon wins the right to lead a mediocre to terrible offense in Chicago to his 2 6^th overall spot on this list.

27)   Jared Goff
Goff struggled when he was able to play last year, and I expect that to continue this year.  His line and receivers haven’t been significantly upgraded, and he’ll be learning under a new head coach in Sean McVay, the youngest in NFL modern history.  It will be a struggle for Goff to even reach 27^th best I’d think.

28)   Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
I think that Watson earns the starter spot by week 1 for the Texans.  It’s a great position for him, with reliable receivers he should be familiar with like Hopkins, a talented running back like Miller, and a very strong defense that will keep the overall pressure off the offense, lead by ends Clowney and Watt, he should be able to slowly work his way into the league.  Good news for his development, but not the best news for his immediate return for fantasy owners.  Great keeper league draft, not a good pick for a one year league however.

29)   Broncos’ QB
While we don’t  yet know who will play QB for the Broncos, whoever does has two solid receivers in Sanders and Thomas to throw to, as well as a decent run game and the best rookie tackle available in the draft to protect him.  He’ll be well positioned for success, and we may find that there needs to be some adjustment to this positioning when the starter is finally revealed.

30)   49ers’ QB
I have no idea who will start here, but what I do know is they will take over a lousy team pretty devoid of offensive talent.  Not exactly a recipe for fantasy success.  Stay away.

Returning to sports writing

I've taken a hiatus from this site for nearly the past 18 months as I had a project/client in real life that ate up a great deal of my time and I needed to prioritize.  I'll be returning now as I take the summer off of full time work.  I'll spend that time doing fantasy analysis, mock drafts, projections, etc.  I've already written up several lists that have been published in part on DraftUtopia.com.  I intend to cross publish things here as well.  I may at some point find somewhere to publish exclusively, but until someone opens up the wallet or otherwise entices me to do so, I'll keep publishing my pieces here as well.

Stay tuned, I'll be uploading pieces tonight and tomorrow.

Daily Fantasy Basketball: January 21

Today brings us a slate of 5 games in the NBA daily fantasy game, featuring 10 teams.  As always, I'll sift through the 80-90 players that will play, and give you the ones set up the best for success, to get the most bang for your fantasy buck.  As with all my pieces, prices and scoring revolve around the Draft Kings fantasy basketball site.  I'll use terms like "DKFP" standing for "Draft Kings fantasy points", which represents not how many points a player will score, but how many fantasy points his performance will score based on his production across all relevant statistical categories.

Clippers @ Cavaliers 8 pm

The Clippers and Cavs will tip off the first game of the night in Cleveland at 8pm, and should be an interesting game for fantasy owners.  The Clippers will still be missing All-Star forward Blake Griffin, who has been sitting for 11 games now, over which time shooting guard JJ Reddick has picked up a lot of the scoring duties, putting in 50% from behind the three point line and scoring 20+ points per game over these last 11 games.  His price hasn't risen quite as quickly as his production on the floor however, and that's with good reason: all he does is score.  Sure he scores from deep, so if he goes 9-12 from behind the arc like he did last game vs. Houston he'll have a productive fantasy night (48.25 pts on a $5,400 price tag) but generally he'll score more like he did the previous 8 games, averaging something in the 20-25 DKFP range, with 30 being his likely ceiling.  Add in the fact that the Cavs play the 2 fairly well, excelling particularly at limiting three pointers from that position, by allowing just 1.9 per game (4th best in the league) and I'm not sure I'd be banking on Reddick being the key to victory tonight.  Let other folks make that mistake.

I'd also stay away from Kevin Love, as the Clippers have done a good job limiting production from the power forward position this season, and that hasn't fallen off at all with the absence of Blake Griffin in these past 11 games.  The one player I might target in this game would be Lebron James, who average 27-7-8 against the Clippers last season, and is coming off a game in Brooklyn where he sat the entire fourth quarter.  He'll be more rested than normal, and after the pounding the Warriors gave them earlier in the week, perhaps more motivated than usual as well.

Pistons @ Pelicans
The other early game of the evening features the Pistons heading to New Orleans to take on Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.  This game provides fantasy owners some very enticing options, namely in the forms of Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson ($7,300) and Pistons center Andre Drummond ($8,800).  While Jackson's production has dropped off a bit in the new year (by about 2 mpg, 2 shot attempts per game, and correspondingly 5 points per game), his price has also, falling several hundred over the past ten games or so.  This could justify picking him up particularly in a match up against a team like the Pelicans, who have ranked near the bottom of the league against opposing point guards DKFP production all season, giving up over 50 DKFP to them each game.

Andre Drummond should be set for an absolute field day against the Pelicans' lousy interior defense, which ranks second to last in the league in limiting the DKFP production of the opposing team's center, allowing nearly 53 DKFP per game to them.  This production from centers is built around not only rebounding (15.7 allowed per game) but also blocks, where opposing centers rack up 2.8 per game.  Particularly considering his recent campaign for a spot on the All Star starting lineup Drummond could very well see a night with production similar to that against Golden State last week, when he dominated the interior, racking up over 20 rebounds, 3 blocks, and added 14 points for 47.7 DKFP.

As for the other side of the match up, Anthony Davis could be a good buy, but I'm staying away from him tonight in favor of another power forward who I'll cover later.  Just a better match up, Detroit ranks top 5 in the league against the power forward position, and with few other threats to worry about, they can afford to focus on the Pelicans' young star and limit his production.

Grizzlies @ Nuggets
The third game of the night will feature the Grizzlies traveling to Denver to take on the Nuggets.  The best fantasy prospect brought to us by this game, is Mike Conley.  He's been out for several weeks with an Achilles injury, but returned last game and played 27 minutes in his first game back, putting up 15 points and 10 assists for 34.25 DKFP on a $6,200 salary.  His salary will remain at $6,200, but he'll be playing Denver, who defends the point guard position very poorly, ranking 25th in the league at limiting their fantasy production.  However very often in fantasy when one guy's stock goes up, another's must go down.  That down guy in this is Mario Chalmers, who has moved back to his 20-25 mpg bench role with the return of Conley, but his price hasn't dropped back yet, still sitting at $6,100, just $100 below the guy he's backing up.

On the Nuggets' side of the ball, I may look to PF Kenneth Faried for relatively cheap production.  With his price tag of $5,900 and going up against a Memphis front court that is certainly the weaker component of the team defensively, this highly active rebounder should be able to produce DKFP, at least enough to justify his purchase.  While he's not my favorite PF on the night, he's my favorite mid range cost PF and worth a look for fantasy owners.

Hawks @ Kings

DeMarcus Cousins headlines my list of suggested buys tonight.  He's one of the most talented players in the league, and playing against the small front court of the Hawks, that ranks near the bottom of the league against the power forward position.  Cousins bears the highest price tag of the night at $10,600, but is a guy who regularly puts up 30 points and 10-15 rebounds, and should do at least the same against the smaller defenders of the Hawks.

On the other side of the ball, I kinda like Jeff Teague here.  While Rondo has been playing better offensively this season and has the Kings thinking playoffs, the Kings' overall defense of the point guard position has been lacking to say the least, as they're currently third worst in the league, allowing over 52 DKFP per game to opposing point guards.  Teague's minutes have taken a bit of a dip recently, below 30 to about 26, but he's still been able to produce about a DKFP per minute of play.  Coming off two games in the low 20's of minutes, he may just be set up for a 30 minute game.

Looking a bit deeper, if I'm looking to fill a position for near minimum I'd pick up Tim Hardaway Jr.  Korver has been limited to 21 minutes in each of his last two games, which has resulted in increased opportunity for Hardaway Jr.  He's translated that into about 30 DKFP in his last two games combined, which isn't great, but it's decent.  And for just $3,100, 15 DKFP as a floor is pretty solid.  And if he happens to drop a few extra shots and give you 20-25 DKFP, even better.

Spurs @ Suns

The last game of the night features the Spurs heading to Phoenix where they'll face the reeling Suns.  The Suns are coming off a tough game against the Pacers, and have struggled since guard Eric Bledsoe went down to injury.  While Brandon Knights minutes (+3), shot attempts (+4), and points per game (+4) have all picked up slightly, his other numbers have largely remained the same, or in the case of defensive production, dropped off slightly (from 1.3 steals per game to .6).  Still, he's the only real option the Suns have, and he'll be going up against the Spurs' backup at the point guard position, so I'm looking for him to have a decent DKFP game, at least justifying his $7,200 price tag.

Injuries often open up opportunity, and typically under priced opportunity as price tags don't adjust quickly enough for the anticipated uptick in production.  This will be the case with Patty Mills on Thursday night, as he's scheduled to start with Tony Parker sidelined for the evening.  Mills has started 2 previous games this season, putting up about 20 DKFP per game, with 10 points and 5 assists in his last start.  He'll face a Suns team that will put up very little resistance to the Spurs however, and I think he can do better than that.  I see this as a game with the potential for blowout, so the Spurs stars could find themselves sitting early and often, while bench players go out and put up a few numbers.  Look for Mills to lead that charge.

Daily Fantasy Adviser Strategy Sessions: GPP plays

The subject of this brief strategy session guide will be GPP plays.  I've noticed that sites like Fan Duel and Draft Kings often talk about playing your one secret lineup.  They even encourage this, making it easy to enter a lineup in multiple contests after entering it in the first.  You can quickly enter one lineup in multiple contests with the click of the mouse for each contest, making it easy to try your chances in multiple games.

On the surface to some, this seems like a great idea, right?  I mean, if you try your chances in one contest, and then in another as well, you're doubling your chances...right?

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG

At first it may seem like that, but then you have to realize: you're still playing the same lineup, and so are other people, percentage wise.  Devonta Freeman is still going to be owned in like 40% of this league and the next, or whatever it is.  The point is, that you've still got the same chances of winning, what you're doubling is your payout IF you win.  Maybe if the second tournament is a smaller tournament, then sure, THEN you're improving your chances of winning.  If you actually want to improve your chances of winning tournaments, here's what you want to do:

Play many lineups.

But you don't want to just throw random lineups out there, right?  What you want to do, is target a group of players.  Find the players you think are going to be good, and build several lineups out of them.  Play ten slightly different lineups in the same GPP, THEN you've improved your chances by ten times of winning that tournament.  I mean just think, how many times have you almost won, but been off just one guy or two?  And how many of those times had you been thinking about playing another guy that ended up going off, and it cost you the win?  I mean maybe you're tossing up Martellus Bennett and Gary Barnidge at the TE spot at a comparable price, and go with Bennett, but Barnidge goes off and you slip out of paying spots because you just didn't cash in on the TE position.
How FRUSTRATING is that?  You kick yourself asking "why didn't I just pick Barnidge instead of Bennett?" Meanwhile however, I'm over here wondering why you didn't pick both of them.  Wouldn't THAT have given you the better chance, instead of agonizing over who might play better?  GPP plays are buying lottery tickets, the more you buy, the better your chance of winning.  Play as many as you can, and then rake in as much as you can!