Auction Drafts

Historically, most fantasy draft analysts focus on snake drafts, as most drafts follow this format.  But for a few of us, auction-or what they're calling "salary cap"-leagues, are where it's at.  Personally, salary cap leagues have always intrigued me.  The option to add multiple first round picks, or stack players in the way you want to is the way I like to build a team.

With the right auction draft strategy, you can build the team you've always wanted.  I'll be posting several of the teams I built this year using the salary cap league system.  Not only can you pick up high value players and still build a team, in some cases you can double up on those first round talents and then go for depth and value later.  You have far more control over your final roster using auction drafts than you do in snake drafts.  So, let's go over some basic strategy stuff:

Number one-and this is the most important thing about auction drafts-you don't nominate players you want.  Every dollar other teams waste before the players you want are nominated, is a step in the direction of you getting the team you want on a budget.  I start off nominating injured stars, guys whose contract situations are a question mark, and then guys who I just don't believe in.  If I'm hoping to build this team around one certain player, I'll nominate other players at that position.  So for many teams this year I wanted Fields or Lawrence in my QB spot.  So I'd nominate as many other QB's as I could prior to their nomination, hoping that other teams would fill up their QB spot and not want to spend on a second or third.  This often works, especially with a QB or TE, as you really only want to roster 1-2 of them on each team, and you certainly don't want to spend a lot for a backup.

I like to go with a variation of the "two hero" strategy when building a salary cap league team.  That is, I spend about half my budget on 2-3 studs, before saving the rest on value pickups later.  Now, this team I've posted first isn't the best example of smart spending, as I ended the draft with $46 leftover-enough for one stud.  While I clearly played the draft itself too conservatively, I still ended up with a team that I feel really good about, and has a couple of "studs" in Wilson and Mixon, as well as depth throughout.

This next team, is a better example, with Mahomes/Kelce/Barkley all on the same team.  This is what spending about half your budget on studs, and then waiting for value later looks like.  Getting the Mahomes/Kelce stack (and adding Sky Moore later), as well as a stud running back in Saquon gives me three players I regularly see go in the first round of snake drafts.  The rest of the team is rounded out with guys I got at a good value, got late when everyone was broke, or guys I think might have a good opportunity to outplay their draft position (or value, in this case) later on.  Again, in an auction draft you're able to not only pick your starters, but the guys deep on your bench that you might have to count on one day.

So instead of calling this the auction "double hero" strategy, what we'll dub it is the "50/50" strategy, where you spend about 50% of your budget on studs, and 50% of your budget on depth.  

Now, let's talk about "stacks".  Stacks increase the value of your players because they essentially double output for your team.  Say you have Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley.  Everything Lawrence throws to Ridley is scoring twice for your team: once for the QB, once for the receiver.  This obviously works well for QBs and tight ends (like Lawrence and Engram, Mahomes and Kelce, or Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews), or QB's and receiving backs (like Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler).  Stacking can also apply elsewhere however.  For instance, defense and running back.  If a team is winning a game, the defense is really locking down the offense, what do they tend to do?  Run the ball to dominate the clock.  So, taking a defense like the Patriots, and pairing it with their starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson, counts as a variation of a "stack".

You have to remember these things are going to work opposite as well.  So for instance, you wouldn't pair Lamar Jackson and his running back JK Dobbins.  Because chances are, if Lamar is running it a lot that game, Dobbins isn't, and vice versa.  They take away from each other's production, and thus shouldn't be in your same lineup.  You want to maximize good performances.  So while Dobbins and the Baltimore defense would make a good pairing, Dobbins and Lamar, or Dobbins and Andrews wouldn't.

So, going into your draft you're going to make a plan.  Who might you want to target to stack together, what stars do you like, these are the questions your plan will answer.  But you'll need to be flexible.  Sometimes when you go into an auction draft, someone else has a stronger desire than you.  There are those years where other owners will spend way more than they should on certain players, and you just have to let go, and let them do that.  I've seen players like Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, or Jamarr Chase go for high 60's or even more (of a $200 budget).  That's fine, even if you wanted them.  You just move on to the next plan, after letting one of the other owners waste their money.

That said, don't be afraid to spend.  Sometimes you'll even need to spend a few dollars more than you plan to on a certain player.  You'll make up the savings on the other end, so go for it.  There's nothing worse than ending an auction draft with 30, 40, or 50 dollars left in your budget.  You want to be conservative as an overall rule, but you don't want to be so conservative that you waste money by not spending it.  

An auction draft is a test of patience, an opportunity to build the team you really want, and a true balancing act between conservatism and dropping big bucks to get the players you want.  If you're able to target the right players with your money early on, then wait on the value plays later, you'll be able to build the team you want, from the QB spot to the final spot on your bench in a way that you simply can't with a snake draft.  Auction drafts take time and skill, but ultimately they give you far more control over your roster than you'll ever have in a snake style draft.

Hopefully, this has given you some assistance in building your auction draft strategy.  Good luck!

I'm Back!

 I took several months off as I relocated, going from the east coast to the west coast, and I'm now writing to you from Reno, Nevada as I work to build a life here with my son.  I hope you continue to enjoy my analysis.  I'm currently talking with several sites about writing for their platform, so keep an eye out here for any updates on where to find my content.  Until I work something out, I'll be publishing here, at least daily.  I'll heavily focus on basketball, some daily betting, some dfs advice, and I'll also delve into some NFL draft stuff as well.  Keep an eye out for my next piece, coming soon!

Fantasy Football Mock Draft Strategies-First Overall, Heavy RB

As we all know, mock drafting is really about creating a strategy to approach the draft with.  This mock will show my preferred strategy, heavy RB.  I've been preaching going RB-RB-RB for years, and the fantasy community has finally caught up after years, with most experts finally realizing the value of a top RB far exceeds that of a top WR regardless of format.  I'll go through this pick by pick with my thoughts and reasoning as I picked:

I started out with the obvious first overall pick: CMC.  There's little reason to justify this pick, he's kind of the consensus #1 overall regardless of who you talk to, and for good reason: he's the ultimate dual threat RB in the league right now.  While he's the consensus #1 overall regardless, in a PPR league he should be that much more valuable than guys like Derrick Henry, who aren't involved in the passing game.

At the 2nd/3rd round turn, I wanted to follow up on my CMC pick with two additional RB's, so I went with Chubb as my 2nd RB and Aaron Jones in my flex spot.  While there are some questions regarding these players-how much work will Hunt take from Chubb, and will GB focus on Jones or go with more of a committee approach-the floor that CMC gives me at the RB position allows me to take these risks.

On the next "turn" of picks in the 4th and 5th, I needed to pick up some receivers, and both DJ Chark and Keenan Allen were there for me, a reasonably strong start to my receiver group considering this is my 4th and 5th pick.  The Jacksonville offense may be a bit suspect, but Chark proved last season he can still be an impact fantasy player despite that.  The questions with Keenan Allen have only ever been about his health in the past.  Today, there are also questions about his QB, with Tyrod Taylor currently slated to start, and rookie Justin Herbert behind him. Regardless of those questions, Allen has the talent to justify his position as my second overall WR.

With my next turn picks (6th and 7th) I really wanted to make sure RB was the strength of my team regardless of off weeks, or anything that might happen, so I went with Hunt and Montgomery.  While potentially providing his own individual value as a receiving threat in the Browns' offense, Hunt also works as a handcuff for Chubb, with most fantasy experts agreeing that if anything were to happen to Chubb throughout the season, Hunt could step into an automatic top 5 RB workload.  Montgomery is a back who came into the year last year with a lot of hype, and let a lot of owners down.  The coaching staff in Chicago is under pressure to use him more, and I think they'll do exactly that.  While he won't provide a lot of work in the passing game-most of that will go to his backup Cohen-he has virtually no competition for the starting RB position, and should get plenty of touches out of the back field.

At this point in the draft, I've got 5 running backs: CMC, Chubb, Aaron Jones, Montgomery, and Kareem Hunt.  I feel pretty good about my situation there.  I've only got two WR's though, and while I'm pretty happy with the floor there, I could use a couple dart throws at guys with upside who could make that position even stronger.  So with my next three picks (8th, 9th, and 10th rounds) I did exactly that, selecting Anthony Miller, Darius Slayton, and Jalen Reagor.  All three have huge potential, a lot of talent, and could see an increased workload this year.  There's been a lot of talk about Miller and his new approach to football overall this off-season, which many think despite the QB issues in Chicago that he could be a fantasy relevant option this year.  Slayton, developed a clear connection with starter Daniel Jones last year, and while there are other targets on the offense, that connection with a QB often means more than anything else.  Reagor's talent is impossible to ignore, and he's headed to a team that was drawing dead at WR last season, starting the likes of Greg Ward by the end of their year.  Reagor could have plenty of opportunity, and has the talent to make the most of those chances.

With 5 RB's and 5 WR's on my roster at this point, a clear strength at RB, a solid floor at WR, and some potential there also, it was time to focus on QB, TE, and Defense, but I saw Pollard on the board there, and had to take him first.  Here I'm just thinking, imagine Zeke goes down to something, Pollard steps into a workhorse role, and I have potentially 2-3 top 5ish RB's with CMC, Pollard, and Chubb/Hunt.  NOW, I'm happy with my skill position players, and with no more bench spots, that's a good thing.  With my final four picks, I'm aiming to fill out my roster.  I go first with Cam Newton.  Newton's health has been an issue in recent years, but he's now being coached by the GOAT coach in Belichick, and there's nobody better in the league than maximizing what you're good at, and avoiding what you're not good at.  I think Cam could have a very productive year in New England, even top 10 QB production, and I'm very happy getting him at this point in the draft.

Now I've gotta pick up a TE, and with Jonnu Smith on the board I've gotta go with him.  He's undeniably talented, young, and is now the top option at the TE spot in Tennessee, and likely the second overall option in the passing game behind only AJ Brown.  TE isn't a top priority in my drafting strategy, so at this point in the draft I'm just looking for a guy who will have some production.  On the 44 targets Jonnu had last year, he had nearly an 80% catch percentage, and a 12.5 yards per reception average.  If he can pick up the 30 targets vacated by Delanie Walker's absence, (which were only caught at a 67% clip for about 10 yards per reception), he could just about double his production from last season, which would put him over 800 yards and maybe 5-6 touchdowns.  I'm happy with that out of my 13th round TE.

Lastly, kicker and defense, and I went in this order for one real reason: I liked Butker being available.  He'll be part of one of the highest scoring offenses in the league, which is often a recipe for a successful kicker.  With no really good defenses available that got me excited, I figured Butker was the pick here.  The Colts were just the best available of a bad group in the final round.  While I'm not worried about them being a liability-they're a solid defense-they're also not a high scoring defense like the Bills, Steelers, 49ers, or Patriots were last season.  Defenses are perhaps the least consequential part of our team though, so I'm happy with just getting one that will be a solid, top half of the league defense.

 So this is what the final product of a heavy RB, first overall pick draft strategy.  I feel really good about this lineup, with both a high floor and a lot of potential.  For me, this is the type of dream lineup I love to put my money behind in fantasy football.  

Fantasy Football Mock Draft Strategies-ZERO RB

 In preparation for the upcoming fantasy season, I've spent some time mock drafting various scenarios.  I'm going to be posting the results, and explaining my thought process throughout the draft.

In this first post, I'm going "zero RB" to show what a team might look like if you went zero RB as a strategy.  Now, for me "zero RB" defines as I filled both WR, the TE, the QB, and Flex with a WR before drafting any RB's.  Here's how it went down:

I had to pick fourth, because it's the earliest position you can make any kind of reasonable argument for a wide receiver.  I could have gone towards the end of the first round, but I thought it'd be more interesting to pass up a top 5 RB.  With the fourth overall pick, I took Michael Thomas, projected by most to be the most productive receiver in the draft.  No real explanation is needed, but my basic strategy going zero RB would I think be to aim to have the best at all the other spots while everyone else is going after RB's.

With my second round pick, Kelce was gone so I went with Kittle, again looking to have the best or a top 3 player at every other position and sacrifice RB.  Kittle performs as a WR2, and will be a strong play no matter the match up.  He shores up my TE position and makes it very productive.

In the third round I took Mahomes.  Lamar had just gone off the clock, so I wanted the other consensus top 2 QB as part of my earlier stated strategy.  Mahomes is high floor and high ceiling, and the difference between my top players at every other position and the opposing team's RB's over my potentially weaker RB's should be slim or perhaps in my favor.

With my fourth and fifth picks I began to fill out the rest of my receiver group, selecting DJ Chark and Terry McLaurin, both number one receivers on offenses with questionable at best quarterbacks.  On the other hand, those options have few (if any) other options to throw to, so they should both have a high target share and if they get lucky with touchdowns could be top 10 overall WR's.

So at this point in the draft my roster looks like:
QB Mahomes
RB empty
RB empty
WR M Thomas
WR DJ Chark
TE Kittle
FLEX T McLaurin
DST
K

And I'm finally free to take running backs!  With my next two picks I do exactly that, selecting David Montgomery and Kareem Hunt.  Montgomery is the lead back with little competition and coaches being pressured into using him more.  Hunt is crazy talented, should get 8-10 targets per game, and if anything happens to Chubb would be a top 5 RB candidate every week immediately.  Both have high floors, Hunt has a high ceiling as well.

Now here's the part of the draft people might disagree with: I went defense and kicker.  Again, I want the best or second best at EVERY position other than RB to overcome the deficit I might be facing from those two spots every week.  So I took Pittsburgh's defense, then turned around and took Harrison Butker as my kicker.  Now the defense wasn't way too early-one went a few picks after I took Pitt-but kicker was probably a round or two too high.  Butker will be on what we expect to be the highest scoring or among the highest scoring offenses in the league, which is a great situation for kickers.  If he's a top 2-3 kicker, I'm happy with the pick.  Also, I just didn't really like any WR's or RB's in this particular range.

So now I felt like I needed a couple dart throws at the RB spot.  Guys who have potential if something goes wrong for the starter on their team.  So I threw three darts with Latavius Murray, Antonio Gibson, and Darrynton Evans with my 10th, 11th, and 12th picks.  Murray showed last year that if something happens to Kamara, he's ready to step in with top 5 RB production immediately.  Gibson is something of an interesting player, taking meetings with the WR's and RB's in Washington.  They don't have many offensive options, I just figured it was worth a flyer to see how it goes.  Evans is playing behind Derrick Henry and won't get much play unless Henry skips a game for some reason, but if he does most people expect Evans to step into a three down role and produce.

Very often once my starters are filled out, I just want to take shots on guys that might pop.  I also backed up the QB position as I thought Cam Newton fit the "guys who might pop" requirement.  If he's healthy and plays 16 games in NE, he's playing for a coach that game plans for what you do best better than anybody in the history of the league.  He'll be very productive, he'll score a lot, it'll be fun to watch.  

I picked up Hockenson just because I didn't really love anyone on the board right then, and I think he has legitimate talent, and if Stafford is back and playing all year, I think he could really produce.  Rookie tight ends rarely ever play in a fantasy relevant way, but in his second year he could very well make the leap production wise that gives you a top 5-10 fantasy tight end.  I took Cobb with my last pick to round out my roster.  Cobb had a very quiet 800+ receiving yards last season, and could be equally if not more productive in Houston.  With Cook and Fuller both ahead of him on the roster and both frequently out due to health issues throughout their careers, he could see a lot of opportunity.

So this is what the "zero RB" strategy looks like from the 4th overall pick slot.  Personally, I dislike the team overall, and you can see the automatic rating system did also.  This team is very weak at running back, depending upon opportunity for several of the players that simply doesn't exist yet.  While there's certainly potential here, and there's certainly the possibility of having a top 3 player at every other position most weeks will help offset the lack of productivity from the RB position, it'll be a tough battle every week.