As we all know, mock drafting is really about creating a strategy to approach the draft with. This mock will show my preferred strategy, heavy RB. I've been preaching going RB-RB-RB for years, and the fantasy community has finally caught up after years, with most experts finally realizing the value of a top RB far exceeds that of a top WR regardless of format. I'll go through this pick by pick with my thoughts and reasoning as I picked:
I started out with the obvious first overall pick: CMC. There's little reason to justify this pick, he's kind of the consensus #1 overall regardless of who you talk to, and for good reason: he's the ultimate dual threat RB in the league right now. While he's the consensus #1 overall regardless, in a PPR league he should be that much more valuable than guys like Derrick Henry, who aren't involved in the passing game.
At the 2nd/3rd round turn, I wanted to follow up on my CMC pick with two additional RB's, so I went with Chubb as my 2nd RB and Aaron Jones in my flex spot. While there are some questions regarding these players-how much work will Hunt take from Chubb, and will GB focus on Jones or go with more of a committee approach-the floor that CMC gives me at the RB position allows me to take these risks.
On the next "turn" of picks in the 4th and 5th, I needed to pick up some receivers, and both DJ Chark and Keenan Allen were there for me, a reasonably strong start to my receiver group considering this is my 4th and 5th pick. The Jacksonville offense may be a bit suspect, but Chark proved last season he can still be an impact fantasy player despite that. The questions with Keenan Allen have only ever been about his health in the past. Today, there are also questions about his QB, with Tyrod Taylor currently slated to start, and rookie Justin Herbert behind him. Regardless of those questions, Allen has the talent to justify his position as my second overall WR.
With my next turn picks (6th and 7th) I really wanted to make sure RB was the strength of my team regardless of off weeks, or anything that might happen, so I went with Hunt and Montgomery. While potentially providing his own individual value as a receiving threat in the Browns' offense, Hunt also works as a handcuff for Chubb, with most fantasy experts agreeing that if anything were to happen to Chubb throughout the season, Hunt could step into an automatic top 5 RB workload. Montgomery is a back who came into the year last year with a lot of hype, and let a lot of owners down. The coaching staff in Chicago is under pressure to use him more, and I think they'll do exactly that. While he won't provide a lot of work in the passing game-most of that will go to his backup Cohen-he has virtually no competition for the starting RB position, and should get plenty of touches out of the back field.
At this point in the draft, I've got 5 running backs: CMC, Chubb, Aaron Jones, Montgomery, and Kareem Hunt. I feel pretty good about my situation there. I've only got two WR's though, and while I'm pretty happy with the floor there, I could use a couple dart throws at guys with upside who could make that position even stronger. So with my next three picks (8th, 9th, and 10th rounds) I did exactly that, selecting Anthony Miller, Darius Slayton, and Jalen Reagor. All three have huge potential, a lot of talent, and could see an increased workload this year. There's been a lot of talk about Miller and his new approach to football overall this off-season, which many think despite the QB issues in Chicago that he could be a fantasy relevant option this year. Slayton, developed a clear connection with starter Daniel Jones last year, and while there are other targets on the offense, that connection with a QB often means more than anything else. Reagor's talent is impossible to ignore, and he's headed to a team that was drawing dead at WR last season, starting the likes of Greg Ward by the end of their year. Reagor could have plenty of opportunity, and has the talent to make the most of those chances.
With 5 RB's and 5 WR's on my roster at this point, a clear strength at RB, a solid floor at WR, and some potential there also, it was time to focus on QB, TE, and Defense, but I saw Pollard on the board there, and had to take him first. Here I'm just thinking, imagine Zeke goes down to something, Pollard steps into a workhorse role, and I have potentially 2-3 top 5ish RB's with CMC, Pollard, and Chubb/Hunt. NOW, I'm happy with my skill position players, and with no more bench spots, that's a good thing. With my final four picks, I'm aiming to fill out my roster. I go first with Cam Newton. Newton's health has been an issue in recent years, but he's now being coached by the GOAT coach in Belichick, and there's nobody better in the league than maximizing what you're good at, and avoiding what you're not good at. I think Cam could have a very productive year in New England, even top 10 QB production, and I'm very happy getting him at this point in the draft.
Now I've gotta pick up a TE, and with Jonnu Smith on the board I've gotta go with him. He's undeniably talented, young, and is now the top option at the TE spot in Tennessee, and likely the second overall option in the passing game behind only AJ Brown. TE isn't a top priority in my drafting strategy, so at this point in the draft I'm just looking for a guy who will have some production. On the 44 targets Jonnu had last year, he had nearly an 80% catch percentage, and a 12.5 yards per reception average. If he can pick up the 30 targets vacated by Delanie Walker's absence, (which were only caught at a 67% clip for about 10 yards per reception), he could just about double his production from last season, which would put him over 800 yards and maybe 5-6 touchdowns. I'm happy with that out of my 13th round TE.
Lastly, kicker and defense, and I went in this order for one real reason: I liked Butker being available. He'll be part of one of the highest scoring offenses in the league, which is often a recipe for a successful kicker. With no really good defenses available that got me excited, I figured Butker was the pick here. The Colts were just the best available of a bad group in the final round. While I'm not worried about them being a liability-they're a solid defense-they're also not a high scoring defense like the Bills, Steelers, 49ers, or Patriots were last season. Defenses are perhaps the least consequential part of our team though, so I'm happy with just getting one that will be a solid, top half of the league defense.
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