Week 6 NFL DFS: Trap Buys

I had a paid day off from my day job this week, and had planned on doing a week 6 advice piece early, getting it out of the way.  I was going to write about Tom Brady facing the Colts, and Andy Dalton facing the Bills, but something just wasn't sitting right with me.  I know Brady's on his payback tour, and playing against the team that started it all in the Colts, and Dalton is the fantasy points leader, but still I just wasn't liking it, so I didn't write, I stewed.  Today, I realized why: Andy Dalton is a trap pick this week.

He's the fantasy points leader, like I said before, and priced at a paltry 5800 in Draft Kings leagues.  He's paired with a strong wider receiver in AJ Green, and Draft Kings has his opposing defense listed as 25TH!  But it's a trap!  Don't fall for it, I'll tell you why:

Buffalo's defense isn't as bad as it seems.  They had the bad luck of drawing New England in the second week of Tom Brady's revenge tour, and he hung over 450 yards on them that afternoon.  Because of that game, they're giving up almost 275 yards per game through the air, good for a low ranking on the defensive charts.  But take that Patriots game out, and they're only giving up 230 yards per game through the air, which would be good for just outside the top ten.  Factor in that they've held number one receivers like Julian Edelman, Odell Beckham Jr, and Jarvis Landry to under 100 yards, with top cornerback Stephon Gilmore grabbing an interception in each of his last two games, and I'm wary of Andy and AJ of the Bengals.  I worry they might be riding a little bit of excitement from their current undefeated record, and run into a tougher defense than they expect.  Their offensive line looked a bit banged up last game, with Andre Smith struggling at points, and we all know Rex loves dialing up those blitzes.  This game is quite simply, a trap.

Now as for Tom Brady, I haven't rethought him at all.  Let me be clear:  START HIM.  Brady is facing the Colts, who brought the Deflategate investigation down upon him, and set the wheels of the longest, and most ridiculous investigation in league history into motion.  Ever since the schedule came out and Brady realized even if the suspension stood he'd face the Colts early in the season, he must have been planning for this game.  I'm looking for him to potentially break records in this game, and really light up the scoreboard.  I'd take him, and all three of his top targets (Edelman, Gronkowski, and Lewis) if possible.  I might even think about Amendola if I need a value pick at the 3,000 price level to fill in a roster spot in a lineup laden with big name stars.

Stay tuned, I'll have more DFS advice later in the week.