DFS-MLB Cheap Buys Lineup

Sometimes when I'm filling out my rosters what I like to do, is go through every position and grab the absolute cheapest guy that I'm comfortable with based on my formulas and analysis.  Then when I've filled out all the positions, I see how much money I have leftover, and go about upgrading a few spots here and there, where I think the money will have the most impact, with a basic idea of the floor at all my other spots.  Today, I thought I'd share my bargain basement lineup with you.  I'll put out the Draft Kings version.  Here it is: (Please bear in mind I'm writing this at about 11 am and the late lineups aren't out yet.)

P       Jake Odorizzi          $8,200
P       Bartolo Colon         $8,400
C      AJ Pierzynski          $3,000
1B    Pedro Alvarez         $3,600
2B    Alberto Callaspo     $2,900
3B    Jimmy Paredes        $2,000
SS    Jose Iglesias            $3,000
OF    Ichiro Suzuki          $3,200
OF    Jonny Gomes         $3,100
OF    Sam Fuld                $3,300

This left me with $9,300 to upgrade various positions across the board (this is an all day lineup by the way).  When you're upgrading, a lot of that is going to go to the pitchers, if you're not 100% comfortable with them.  I'm a Boston guy, and hate betting against the Red Sox, so part of mine went to upgrading Odorizzi.  Just a personal choice.  Here are some smart upgrade options...

       Old Lineup                Salary          Added Sal.        New Lineup
P       Jake Odorizzi          $8,200                              P       Jake Odorizzi          $8,200
P       Bartolo Colon         $8,400                              P       Bartolo Colon         $8,400
C      AJ Pierzynski          $3,000                              C      AJ Pierzynski          $3,000
1B    Pedro Alvarez         $3,600          +$7,000       1B    Yonder Alonso        $4,300
2B    Alberto Callaspo     $2,900                              2B    Alberto Callaspo     $2,900
3B    Jimmy Paredes        $2,000                              3B    Jimmy Paredes        $2,000
SS    Jose Iglesias            $3,000                               SS    Jose Iglesias            $3,000
OF    Ichiro Suzuki          $3,200          +$600          OF    Lorenzo Cain          $3,800
OF    Jonny Gomes         $3,100                               OF    Jonny Gomes          $3,100
OF    Sam Fuld                $3,300          +$1,000       OF    Yoenis Cespedes       $4,300

I've upgraded three players to players I expect to have great games today, and as you can see I still have $700 left to upgrade another position or two possibly.  This is how you make sure all your positions are filled with guys you like.  Don't fill it in from the top-down, but from the bottom-up.

Now go make some money folks!!!!

Daily Sports Advice: DFS MLB Hitters, Going Through the Lineup

Like I said, I was slacking yesterday on this, so today I owe you.  I'm going to go position by position and give you my thoughts.  Who is worth spending money on, who you should avoid, and why.

Catcher
Catcher is a spot occupied almost nightly by Posey on many lineups, but tonight is a good night to avoid him.  He's just 11-60 vs. Clayton Kershaw over their careers, and he's actually struck out more times than he's hit, with 13 strikeouts.  I'm advising people to forego the Posey choice here, both because he'll be bad if he plays, and because I'm not sure he'll play.  Both his replacements are good against Kershaw: a combined 5-12 with two doubles.  Look for Posey to sit today.  At least out of my lineup.

Today I'm going with Salvador Perez myself in most of my lineups.  I think the mid 3,000's is perfect to pay for him, and he produces for a catcher, with 8 runs and 12 RBI on the season.  A potentially good value buy on the day though, would be Kurt Suzuki, who is 8-21 with 3 doubles, a homerun, and 3 RBI against Kluber throughout their careers.

First Base
First Base is usually an easy but potentially an expensive position to fill.  In many of the most recent days, I've been going with Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera: two hitters I'll avoid today.  While both have been hot to start the season, Gonzalez has been cooling off the past few games, going just 1-12 over the past 3 contests.  He's also been just abysmal against Bumgarner in the past, going just 4-35 and striking out 7 times.  I'm passing on him tonight.

A solid lock on the expensive side tonight is going to be Paul Goldschmidt.  He's 5-7 in past at-bats against Texas starter Yovani Gallardo, and he's batting .314 on the season with 5 homers and 15 RBI.  It's a pretty solid bet he'll continue that trend tonight.  I think also Eric Hosmer is wildly undervalued.  He's part of a very productive offense in Kansas City, and one of few first basemen who will give you the occasional steal also (highly valued at 5 points in Draft Kings).

Second Base
This should be a short section.  Jedd Gyorko is the only real solid, value buy tonight.  He's playing at Coors, and though he's mediocre at the plate and his history isn't much better vs. Kyle Kendrick, he's still right in the middle of that San Diego lineup that's been putting runs on the board throughout this series in Colorado.  I'm thinking they continue to do the same tonight.  You can spend on Robinson Cano if you want to, and it won't be wasted, but I like getting value at second base myself, I don't think it's a spot I should spend a lot of my cap.

Third Base
Another short conversation.  Your choices here are basically Arenado-batting .311 with 3 homers and 10 RBI on the year and 4-5 against James Shields, tonight's pitcher for San Diego-and he's going to be playing in hitter friendly Coors Field tonight, Kris Bryant, or Mike Moustakas.  I went with Moustakas in my original lineup, but I'll make lineups with both Moustakas and Bryant in them I'm sure, maybe even A-Rod.  Arenado is a little too rich for my blood on the corner, especially with Moustakas producing the way he is for $3,000.

Shortstop
Another short conversation-see a trend with the infield here?-Jose Iglesias.  This guy is batting .400 and still valued like a backup.  You can pay almost $1,000 more for Reyes if you like, but Iglesias is my guy today.

Outfielders
My ultimate value buy in the outfield is another Kansas City batter, in Lorenzo Cain.  Here's a batter that contributes in every category, has double digit runs and RBI's, and is still somehow valued outside of the top ten outfielders on both major sites.

Matt Kemp is a bit on the expensive side, in the mid to upper $4,000's, but he's well worth the buy, especially at hitter friendly Coors Field in Colorado.  He's already been pretty productive in the first two games of this series, going 4-8 and scoring 3 runs while batting in 4 as well.  Look for that trend to continue tonight.

Giancarlo Stanton is a player a lot of owners love, but he might be someone I shy away from spending almost $5,000 on tonight.  He's got a lot of history against Cole Hamels, and it's been average at best, with a .279 batting average, 12 hits, and 17 strikeouts in 43 at-bats.  He's too expensive to have a mediocre night.

Justin Upton-He's a good buy tonight, batting .315 on the season and .348 in the matchup against Kendricks.  He'll be a strong candidate to add to the 3 homeruns and 8 RBI's he already has on the season.

Seth Smith-Until now it's been all "chalk" in a sense, in this outfield, but this is the place I'm advising to spend money outside of the mound today.  Smith is my one real sleeper in the outfield, going for the mid $2,000's and coming into a match up against Roberto Perez in which he's gone 4-10 with a double and an RBI in past appearances, I think he could be a sneaky buy to fill in the last spot in your outfield if you've got two big names there already and very little money to find a final player.

There you have it folks!  Now go out and make that money!!!

Daily Sports Advice-DFS MLB "Pay for Pitching"

The theme for today is "pay for pitching" because today, it's worth it.  There are several REALLY good pitchers taking the mound today, and a few against very weak offenses, who I think should anchor a lineup in DFS for big money.

DFS owners will be tempted to pay big for Clayton Kershaw tonight, and while you CAN do that, because he's historically been dominant against the Giants, and he's been good so far this year, I think that at a price tag of $12,500 in Draft Kings leagues and $12,000 in Fan Duel leagues, there's slightly better value to be had.  And when you're paying for pitching, every dollar is going to count because you're going to severely limit the rest of your lineup.  Still, let's take a look at some of Kershaw's relevant numbers tonight and you can see why someone would want to pay those prices:

In his career, Kershaw has faced the Giants in 25 starts, earning a win in 14 of them, a loss in 5, and not factoring into the decision in the other 6.  Throughout those 25 games, he's posted a 1.43 ERA, and the Giants have struggled to hit, batting just .185 in 666 at-bats, wracking up more strikeouts (191) than hits (123), and scoring just 34 runs in 189 innings of work (over 7 IP per start).  In short, he's a lock for performing well tonight.  But a VERY expensive lock.

Moving one level down in pitchers worth paying for today, you've got Johnny Cueto, David Price, and Corey Kluber.  These are all guys who-unlike Kershaw-appear on my DK Top 25 Pitchers List-soon to be published here.  These are basically low WHIP, high strikeout guys who pile up the fantasy points in draft king leagues that penalize a lot more than fan duel leagues do.

Cueto has the advantage of facing the completely inept Milwaukee offense today, where he'll almost certainly lower his 2.14 ERA and keep up with his 8 strikeouts per start rate.  He's liked Milwaukee his whole career, I think he'll eat batters up there today.

Price, is in New York to face the Yankees.  While he's a strong pitcher (0.40 ERA, 0.81 WHIP this season), he's a slightly less favorable buy than Cueto in my opinion both because he's priced higher by about 1,000 on both major sites, and also because he's pitching in a hitter friendly park against the 7th ranked offense in the league in terms of runs scored.  Coming out of the AL East, he's had a lot of experience against the Yankees (26 games as a starter and reliever) and it hasn't always gone well.  Granted their offense isn't exactly laden with talent, but today he's less of a sure thing than either Cueto or Kershaw in my opinion.

Kluber brings his 2.49 ERA into Chicago to face the 25th ranked White Sox batters.  He's faced Chicago 10 times before, and it's generally gone well for him, there's no real reason to think that would change this time out.  To me, he's a solid value as a top of the line pitcher at about $9,500.  In Draft Kings leagues, he's great.  Start him, then back him up with another pitcher if you don't want him and Cueto to eat up 1/3 of your budget on their own.

I owe you a day from yesterday (had a prior all day obligation that kept me from writing, but not from winning money at fantasy sports!) so I'm gonna give you all my pitching tips today, I'm not holding anything back right now!!!

I'm gonna give you James Shields.  This guy is a pretty good value today, pricing in the $8,000's and bring a guy who just barely makes my top 25 DK value pitchers list, that's pretty good bang for your buck.  This will be his foutrh start of the season, and in three prior starts (against three different teams, in three different parks) he's been very good, posting a 2.84 ERA, winning twice, and striking out 24 batters (8 per contest).  With a 1.00 WHIP this season, he'll be a dominant add in either league.  He'll be a great value buy in fan duel leagues, although you have to be careful here as he's playing at Coors Field, the best hitter's park in the majors, given the altitude.

Last pitcher here, and this is if you really want to save some money on your lineup today, and pay for some power bats instead of pitching.  I'm going way down the list here for rookie Archie Bradley.  This kid has been in the majors for a grand total of two starts, but he's been dealing in a big way.  His 1.42 ERA is very impressive, but even more so is his 0.87 WHIP.  Every year you see a few rookies that the guys in the majors just can't figure out for one reason or another, at very least until they've seen him a few times.  Bradley's facing the Rangers for the first time today, a team that's been struggling a bit to score (16th) and hit (29th) anyway.  He'll face them at home-Chase Field-where he threw 6 shutout innings to open up the season against Clayton Kershaw, a guy going for almost double his value today.  In his second start he faced Madison Bumgarner, and while he didn't get the win, his team did.  Today, he'll just face Yovani Gallardo, and there's no real reason to think the results will be any different here either.

I'll work up something on hitters later, this is getting a bit long.  Now go make some money today people!!

DFS Daily Sports Advice: April 20 MLB Version

Today in the majors there are 8 games being played, 7 of them at night and one has already started.  We’ll focus on the 7 games at night in this article, with players to pick up, and players to leave alone.  Without further ado…

Can’t Miss Batter
My can’t miss batter today has to be OF Matt Kemp, playing in the always hitter friendly Coors Field against Jorge De La Rosa, pitching in his first outing of the year for the Rockies, coming off a groin injury.  De La Rosa is a pitcher Kemp has seen a lot throughout his career, and played fairly well against.  He’s 15-39 against him with 4 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, and 12 RBI.  He’s also batting .340 on the season.  He’s a lock to perform tonight, in my opinion.
Back up can’t miss batters: Miguel Cabrera, Jose Altuve, and Jose Iglesias

Pitcher to Pick Up
Tonight there are a few pitchers taking the mound that catch my eye.  Arietta, and Bauer are likely to have good nights, but the guy I’m looking at for something of a value pick behind those two is Edison Volquez.  He’s got a 2.3 ERA on the season so far, but more importantly he’s got 12 strikeouts (6 per start) and worked a total of 15.2 innings over those two games.  In fan duel leagues, each IP is a point, the same as a strikeout.  Even if he doesn’t get the win (and I project him to, he’s coming off KC’s first loss and wants to redeem himself against a poor Minnesota lineup that has batted just .171 against him in the past) we’re talking a double digit point performance in FD leagues.

Players to AvoidI’m gonna go ahead and suggest you avoid Royals Salvador Perez (catcher) and Lorenzo Cain (OF).  Perez is batting .362 with 3 homers this year, and looks like a great option at catcher most of the time, but in 12 at bats against Kyle Gibson in the past, he’s managed just 1 hit, yet struck out 4 times.  Cain is currently carrying a .413 batting average with two home runs, but is just 1-10 in past plate appearances against Gibson.

Now let’s go through yesteday’s advice.
Trout went 0-4, again, this process isn’t perfect.  He’s always an expensive buy, so it’s always a lot of risk and reward with his DFS owners.
Kazmir took a tough loss after throwing 7.1 innings, striking out 5, and giving up just two earned runs.
Brandon McCarthy picked up a win after throwing six shutout innings and striking out 6 batters.

Avoid
Yasiel Puig didn’t play last night, looks like he might have a hamstring injury of some sort.
George Springer went 1-3 with a walk and a run. Not as bad as I’d thought.

Now...go win some money!!!!

DFS: Daily Sports Advice April 19 2015 NBA

I got to thinking, and just couldn’t stop myself from making an NBA version today, after filling out my own lineups.  I thought I owed it to my audience to bring you a few guys here to grab and avoid.

Guys to Grab
Tony Parker-Parker is selling on fan duel leagues at 5,200.  That’s insanely low considering his vast playoff experience.  Additionally, I think we’ll see Kawhi Leonard all over CP3 on defense, and CP3 will use up a lot of energy on that end.  I think a natural move is to attack him on the defensive end, and completely take him out of the game if possible.  Look for Tony Parker to attack, attack, attack at least this first game, and see how Chris Paul handles constant pressure on both ends.

Tim Duncan-Duncan rebounds almost 27% of the defensive rebounds available for his team while on the floor.  I expect the Spurs to put DeAndre Jordan on the line as often as possible-perhaps as many as 25+ times-creating a lot of rebounding opportunities for Duncan to clean up, without an opposing center to battle him for them.  Addtionally, his minutes will go up from the 28 mpg he’s been playing all year to probably about 32 mpg.  I’m looking for his rebounding numbers to go from 9 per game to at least 13 during this series.

Kevin Love-I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lebron take it easy in the Cavs’ first playoff game.  He wanted his teammates to learn the hard way earlier in the year, and he may have similar ideas in their first playoff series.  The Celtics present no real threat to the Cavs, so they could go down a game or even two before he turned it on and won four straight to move on to the next round.  With great defensive guards in Boston, and not a whole lot of great big guys, Kevin Love may have some opportunity to play the lead role and put some points on the board.

Guys to Avoid
Kyrie Irving-Irving heads this list as the Cavs gear up to play Boston in the opening round.  Boston features perhaps the best defensive backcourt in the league, in Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley.  Brad Stevens is a smart coach.  He may just have his two young guards shut down Kyrie to the best of their significant ability, blanket Kevin Love on the exterior, and let Lebron get his, figuring he can’t beat them on his own, or something to that effect.  Either way, I expect Irving to have a rough day today in his first playoff game ever.

DeAndre Jordan-The “Hack a lousy free throw shooter” strategy has been widely talked about, and this game promises to be it’s coming out party in the postseason.  Jordan struggles at the line, and his frustration may spill over to the rest of the court, or keep him off it entirely.  Either way, he’s no a risk I’m taking today.

DFS: Daily Sports Advice April 19 2015 MLB

I’m embracing the MLB season being upon us, and going with another all MLB Daily DFS Dish here.  There are 15 games in the majors today, giving us A LOT of options at every position.  I’ve narrowed those options down to 44 players I expect to have some success today based on their past performance combined with current performance.  Here are a couple:

Can’t Miss BatterToday I’m going to go with Mike Trout here.  Sure he’s expensive (6,100 in Fan Duel leagues) and well known, but he produces.  Against Feldman in past appearances, he’s gone 5-14 total with a double, 2 homeruns, and 4 RBI.  He’s hitting .400 on the season so far, and produced 9 runs and 9 RBI from 16 hits.  He also steals bases and walks sometimes, making him a fantasy 1254780 tool player, lol.  Grab him today, he’ll do you right.
Since Trout is so well known, I wanted to give you a lesser name also.  I’m going with Jean Segura on this one.  Not a complete unknown, but no Mike Trout, Segura produces on the field, hitting .350 so far this year.  While he struggles to score as part of the hapless Brewers offense, he’s recently been moved to the top as their leadoff hitter, so I expect his run production to go up.  Against Gerrit Cole he’s hit 6-15 with two doubles and a walk coming into today’s matchup.  Chalk him up for a 2-4/3-5 kind of day with at least one run scored.  In my mind, that’s a solid day from your shortstop position.

Pitcher to Pick Up
I’m going to give you two here, one I think is a lock for a good day, and one you might want to take a flier on, depending on what kind of league you’re a part of.
Scott Kazmir is my lock today.  Provided the cramps that put him out of his last start early don’t act up again, he should dominate.  He’s coming into this game with a 0.69 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 2 games pitched, and one was shortened by cramps.  Despite those cramps, he’s still got the 18 K’s and 2 wins under his belt this year already.  He’s facing a tough lineup in the Royals, but I expect him to pitch well.
Brandon McCarthy is gonna be my guy to take a flier on.  He’s cheap in fan duel leagues (7,900) and coming into today’s matchup with 19 strikeouts under his belt.  Sure he’s got a high ERA (6.75) but his K’s outnumber his ER’s by ten (5 per game) and he’s putting in 6 IP per start this year.  If this powerful Dodgers lineup helps him to another win, that’s about a 15, 16 point outing in fanduel leagues that should anchor your lineup well.  And don’t forget, he only costs you 7,900.  That’s 2,000+ off the bigger names that you’re saving to put towards big bats in your lineup.  On a day several of them play, that might be a risk worth taking.

Guys to Avoid
Stay away from Puig today, who’s 1-6 with 3 strikeouts against Eddie Butler in the past.
Also George Springer, who is sometimes a solid option as a value buy in the outfield, has gone 1-9 against Garrett Richards in the past, don’t count on him to fill any cheap holes for your roster today.

Yesterday’s Advice:

I called these guys “locks” or potential locks
Tulowitzki, he went 1-4 with an RBI for 1.25 fanduel points
Segura, he went 2-4 with 1 run and 2 steals for 6.5 points
Posey, he went 2-4 with an RBI for 2.5 points

I told you to take a look at these pitchers:,
Yordano Ventura, he took a loss and was ejected after 3.1 in a rough outing
Dallas Keuchel, he went 6 IP with 2 hits, 3 walks, and 7 K’s and the win for 17 points
Jacob DeGrom, he threw 7 shutout innings and gave up 6 hits with 8 strikeouts for 19 points

I told you to avoid…
Shin So-Choo and Prince Fielder, of the Rangers.  They went a combined 0-8 with 3 strikeouts.  Felix Hernandez had a really good game there, striking out 12 in 7 innings and giving up just 1 run en route to his second win of the season.

DFS: Daily Sports Advice April 18 2015

Today starts the NBA playoffs, but at this time of the day we’re well into the first game, so I’m going to focus on night games in MLB plays.  Tonight features 8 games, and brings a variety of options at each position that should see some success today, and could help you win thousands of dollars!  Read on and find out who might be ready to break out their big bat and do some damage tonight.

Can’t Miss BatterSS Troy Tulowitzki
I’m a little less convinced about Tulo here than I’ve been about my can’t miss batters on other days, but I’m probably nit-picking the fact he’s struck out 7 times in 30 at-bats against Zach Greinke, because he’s hit safely 9 times, with one of those a double.  Also, he’s currently on a hot streak, hitting .359 to open up the season.  He’s the closest thing we have to a “lock” in the night games.
Other potential “locks”: Jean Segura vs. Vance Worley, and Buster Posey vs. Rubby De LaRosa

Pitcher to Pick up
I think there are a few interesting options at the starting pitching spot tonight.
Yordano Ventura comes into the game with a 2.31 ERA, having won both his first two starts while striking out 9 batters and walking just 3.  He could be a solid option for less money, allow you to go with a few bigger bats in the lineup.  With a WHIP under 1, he should be a pretty safe addition.
Dallas Kuechel added a breaking ball in the off-season, and now sports a 1.29 ERA with a 1-0 record and 7 strikeouts on the season.  A few Angels have seen limited success against Kuechel however, which may scare some DFS owners away from him.
Jacob DeGrom is probably the best pitcher not named Zach or Felix throwing tonight.  He comes into tonigh’s matchup with a 1.46 ERA, 9 strikeouts, and a 1.30 whip.  On top of those numbers, Miami batters are the owners of a paltry .191 batting average against him in past matchups (13-68) with just 1 run scored.  He’s not unhittable, but he’s about 2 grand less costly than Felix Hernandez, 1500 less than Greinke, and might just do the same thing they do tonight scoring wise.

Players to Avoid
Shin So-Choo and Prince Fielder, of the Texas Rangers.  Both don’t fare well against Felix Hernandez historically.  Choo has gone 9-33 with 12 strikeouts against him, while Prince has yet to collect a single base hit against him, going 0-11 with 4 strikeouts and just one walk.  If either of them are in the game tonight, I’d avoid them in my lineup.

Yesterday’s Advice
Yesterday’s “Can’t Miss Batters” were Buster Posey and Adrian Gonzalez.
Posey went 0-3, can’t win em all.
Gonzalez went 3-4, with two doubles and three runs scored.

Yesterday’s Pitcher to Pickup was Yovani Gallardo.  His night went like this: 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 hits, 3 K’s, 2 BB.

Yesterday’s player to avoid: Ubaldo Jimenez.  His night went like this: 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 hits, 2 K’s, but he was ejected for hitting…Pablo Sandoval, his old NL rival in the 4th inning.

Good luck tonight folks!

DFS: Daily Sports Advice April 17, 2015

Today’s edition of Smart Plays bring you more baseball, as the NBA playoffs don’t get under way until tomorrow afternoon.  These suggestions will focus on the later games, not the first two, as the first game of the day is about to start as I’m writing this.

Can’t Miss Batter
Today, I’ll post two can’t miss batters.  These guys aren’t necessarily smaller names, but guys that should absolutely have success today based on their past.
Buster Posey-Posey is hitting just .243 on the season, but he’s got 2 homeruns, 5 rbi’s, and plenty of upside.  Today he’s facing Josh Collmenter, who’s he’s seen a great deal of success against.  In the 22 times he’s faced Collmenter, he’s hit safely 11 times including a double and 3 homeruns, and walked twice.
Adrian Gonzalez-Gonzalez has been on a tear as of late, starting the season hitting a blistering .528 with 5 homers and 9 RBI’s.  I’m sure a .500+ batting average isn’t going to continue, but Kyle Kendrick probably won’t be the man to stop him, given their 15 past match ups.  Gonzalez has hit safely 4 times, and walked 3 times.  That’s an OBP of nearly .500, and a likely indication he’ll fare well today.

Pitcher to Pick Up
Today I went all the way to the bottom of the “Pitchers” cue to bring you Yovani Gallardo of the Texas Rangers.  Gallardo started the season weak, posting a 5.59 ERA over his first two starts, and walking 2 batters on top of that for a WHIP of over 1.6, but tonight might just be the night he changes that against the Mariners.
The 3-6 Mariners have been disappointing this season to say the least.  After spending in the off-season to bring in guys like Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano, they’ve quickly fallen below .500 with Cruz as pretty much the sole bright spot in the lineup.  Cruz is also the only weakness in the matchup Gallardo has against these Mariners, who come in to this game with a .111 batting average against him.  Cruz was 2-2, but otherwise the other 4 batters in their lineup he’s seen were a combined 3-43 for no runs and 4 walks against Gallardo.  He could make a great cheap buy, if you’re loading up your lineup with big bats today.

Steer Clear of…Ubaldo Jimenez-despite the fact he is coming into this game with a 0.00 ERA, and looked great in his first start against a tough lineup in Toronto I just don’t trust him.  He’s an inconsistent pitcher at best, and he’s starting tonight against Boston, the first overall team in the league when it comes to putting runs on the board, and a lineup full of guys who have seen success against Jimenez.  This lineup is lead by Pablo Sandoval, who saw his success against Jimenez in the NL, during Jimenez’s best days.
Michael Brantley-I’d also stay away from Brantley today.  He’s been struggling early in the season, and coming into this game is just 1-10 against Michael Pelfrey.  I’m not sure this is the game I’d be on him coming out of this early slump.

Yesterday’s Picks:
Pick up:
Adam Lind 1-4
Dillon Gee 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 HR, 7K
Marcell Ozuna 0-3, 3K, BB, RBI

Stay Away From
Paul Goldschmidt-1-5, 2R, 3 RBI, BB
Jose Bautista 0-4
Washington Nationals lineup 6-29, 5R

Not my best day.  But I’ll take my lumps and still dish you out some solid advice today.  See you tomorrow!

DFS: Daily Sports Advice April 16, 2015

Today we get our first real taste of an MLB only DFS day of the season, as the NBA wrapped up their regular season last night and don’t start the first round of the playoffs until Saturday.  Today, I’ll give you a few players you might want to add, a few you might want to avoid, and we’ll go over my advice from yesterday.

Adds
Can’t Miss Batter: Adam Lind
Hitting .345 this season already, Lind has an extensive and successful history against John Lackey, having seen him in 28 at-bats throughout their careers, and hit safely in 15 of them for a whopping .536 batting average.  That includes 6 doubles and 6 RBI’s.
Pitcher to add: Dillon Gee
Cole Hamels is the obvious choice here, and you wouldn’t be wrong to take him, his numbers against the Nationals’ batters are quite good.  But this isn’t about the most obvious choice so I’m bringing you Dillon Gee, a much less expensive add.  Playing Gee instead of Hamels will save you 2-3,000 on your cap, and you aren’t giving up a lot.  Gee has seen the batters he’s going against today a total of 87 times, and they’ve hit safely in just 19 of those at-bats, with just 1 homerun and 4 RBI.  That’s just a .218 batting average against him, and then there’s the 13 strikeouts…Gee is a solid play today.
Worth A Look: OF Marcell Ozuna
I kinda like Ozuna today.  He hasn’t played particularly well this season thus far (.214 average) but the matchup vs. Gee looks good for him, given his 5 for 10 lifetime record against him.  This is the type of matchup that might just help Ozuna find his bat again.  While I like Gee overall today, Ozuna could be the one bright spot in the Marlins lineup.

Stay Away From These Guys
Here I’m going to bring you a few big names that you should stay away from today.
1B Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt is hitting .344 with 3 homeruns this season, so he’ll be a tempting pickup today, but especially as the most expensive first baseman in most leagues today he’s not a great play.  Lifetime against Madison Bumgarner he’s 5 of 28 for a .179 batting average, and he’s been struck out 7 times by the lefty.  I wouldn’t spend for him today.
OF Jose Bautista
Bautista has been a big name in power hitting over the past few years, but he’s started slow this season, batting just .172 with 2 homeruns.  While the power is still there, the contact just isn’t, and today isn’t the most likely day for him to fix that, as he’s just 2 of 21 lifetime against Chris Archer, Tampa’s projected starter today.
ANY Washington Batter
Washington batters have not fared well against Cole Hamels.  Over the course of his career, the batters on their roster have hit just .202 against him in 406 appearances, striking out 22 more times (104) than hits (82), and walking just 40 times.  Hamels is due for a good day today, which is not good news for the batters in Nationals uniforms.  Or anyone who plays them today.

Yesterday’s Advice:
Yesterday I told you to go with Greg Monroe and Reggie Jackson of the Pistons.  Reggie Jackson exploded for 24 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals in a 52 fantasy point effort on DraftKings boards and 49.3 points on FanDuel.  His teammate Greg Monroe had a quieter game, with 10 points, 2 boards, 1 assist an 4 steals, for a total of 21.5 points in DraftKings leagues and 20.9 in FanDuel leagues.

DFS: Daily Sports Advice

With daily fantasy blowing up the way it has (and I’m no different, I love it) I thought I’d write a daily piece, with a few recommendations for your daily fantasy plays.  For the next few weeks I’ll concentrate primarily on the NBA, as we move into the playoffs and the baseball season is just starting to gear up.  As we get towards the end of the NBA playoffs, we’ll have a better sample size of this year’s MLB to analyze, and move on to baseball daily.

Today’s hot play is shared between two players on the same team: Reggie Jackson and Greg Monroe of the Detroit Pistons.  These are two guys about to hit the free agent market (Jackson restricted, Monroe unrestricted) who are lining up in the season’s last game to play the Knicks on what is still considered by most to be the biggest stage in the basketball world: MSG.  This will be both of their last chance to leave an impression in the minds of NBA GM’s, especially Phil Jackson himself, who manages the Knicks and projects to have a staggering amount of cap room this summer.  They have the good fortune of being able to make that last impression against these Knicks, who line up questionable NBA talent every night, and are in the business of losing games as they look to secure the best possible chance to land this summer’s first overall draft pick.

Monroe is (I think) a great fit for the triangle in New York, and Jackson has been on fire lately, averaging 20-10-4 over his last ten games.  Both might consider this a direct audition for the Knicks next year, or just for the league as a whole.  Overall, I think this game sets up very well for these guys to score big tonight in DFS leagues.  On the last night of the season and with nothing to play for, typical plays like Lebron James, or Steph Curry might be resting, so it’ll be a good night to go with these second tier stars on their last night to prove themselves worthy of the max deals they’re pursuing.

Matt Barnes: A Solid Last Minute Pickup

Here’s some last minute advice to you daily fantasy players out there.  This one’s not gonna give you a 40 point guy, but it’ll help on a 3 game night in the association where every point matters.

If you’ve got PJ Tucker running tonight DROP HIM NOW.  Swap him out in favor of his matchup tonight: Matt Barnes, of the Clippers.

These two players have met 12 times throughout their careers, dating back to 2006, and over that 9-year history of playing each other not one single time has Tucker outplayed Barnes.

While the majority of their numbers are pretty similar, Barnes averages 5 more ppg in their match ups, and his teams have won 9 of the 12 games.  While the lack of options in the front court tonight may very well have you playing both these guys, if you have to choose one or the other (and in Draft Kings they’re the same price) choose Barnes.

Also, drop Marcus Morris if you’re playing him.  He’s a last minute scratch in tonight’s lineup.