DFS owners will be tempted to pay big for Clayton Kershaw tonight, and while you CAN do that, because he's historically been dominant against the Giants, and he's been good so far this year, I think that at a price tag of $12,500 in Draft Kings leagues and $12,000 in Fan Duel leagues, there's slightly better value to be had. And when you're paying for pitching, every dollar is going to count because you're going to severely limit the rest of your lineup. Still, let's take a look at some of Kershaw's relevant numbers tonight and you can see why someone would want to pay those prices:
In his career, Kershaw has faced the Giants in 25 starts, earning a win in 14 of them, a loss in 5, and not factoring into the decision in the other 6. Throughout those 25 games, he's posted a 1.43 ERA, and the Giants have struggled to hit, batting just .185 in 666 at-bats, wracking up more strikeouts (191) than hits (123), and scoring just 34 runs in 189 innings of work (over 7 IP per start). In short, he's a lock for performing well tonight. But a VERY expensive lock.
Moving one level down in pitchers worth paying for today, you've got Johnny Cueto, David Price, and Corey Kluber. These are all guys who-unlike Kershaw-appear on my DK Top 25 Pitchers List-soon to be published here. These are basically low WHIP, high strikeout guys who pile up the fantasy points in draft king leagues that penalize a lot more than fan duel leagues do.
Cueto has the advantage of facing the completely inept Milwaukee offense today, where he'll almost certainly lower his 2.14 ERA and keep up with his 8 strikeouts per start rate. He's liked Milwaukee his whole career, I think he'll eat batters up there today.
Price, is in New York to face the Yankees. While he's a strong pitcher (0.40 ERA, 0.81 WHIP this season), he's a slightly less favorable buy than Cueto in my opinion both because he's priced higher by about 1,000 on both major sites, and also because he's pitching in a hitter friendly park against the 7th ranked offense in the league in terms of runs scored. Coming out of the AL East, he's had a lot of experience against the Yankees (26 games as a starter and reliever) and it hasn't always gone well. Granted their offense isn't exactly laden with talent, but today he's less of a sure thing than either Cueto or Kershaw in my opinion.
Kluber brings his 2.49 ERA into Chicago to face the 25th ranked White Sox batters. He's faced Chicago 10 times before, and it's generally gone well for him, there's no real reason to think that would change this time out. To me, he's a solid value as a top of the line pitcher at about $9,500. In Draft Kings leagues, he's great. Start him, then back him up with another pitcher if you don't want him and Cueto to eat up 1/3 of your budget on their own.
I owe you a day from yesterday (had a prior all day obligation that kept me from writing, but not from winning money at fantasy sports!) so I'm gonna give you all my pitching tips today, I'm not holding anything back right now!!!
I'm gonna give you James Shields. This guy is a pretty good value today, pricing in the $8,000's and bring a guy who just barely makes my top 25 DK value pitchers list, that's pretty good bang for your buck. This will be his foutrh start of the season, and in three prior starts (against three different teams, in three different parks) he's been very good, posting a 2.84 ERA, winning twice, and striking out 24 batters (8 per contest). With a 1.00 WHIP this season, he'll be a dominant add in either league. He'll be a great value buy in fan duel leagues, although you have to be careful here as he's playing at Coors Field, the best hitter's park in the majors, given the altitude.
Last pitcher here, and this is if you really want to save some money on your lineup today, and pay for some power bats instead of pitching. I'm going way down the list here for rookie Archie Bradley. This kid has been in the majors for a grand total of two starts, but he's been dealing in a big way. His 1.42 ERA is very impressive, but even more so is his 0.87 WHIP. Every year you see a few rookies that the guys in the majors just can't figure out for one reason or another, at very least until they've seen him a few times. Bradley's facing the Rangers for the first time today, a team that's been struggling a bit to score (16th) and hit (29th) anyway. He'll face them at home-Chase Field-where he threw 6 shutout innings to open up the season against Clayton Kershaw, a guy going for almost double his value today. In his second start he faced Madison Bumgarner, and while he didn't get the win, his team did. Today, he'll just face Yovani Gallardo, and there's no real reason to think the results will be any different here either.
I'll work up something on hitters later, this is getting a bit long. Now go make some money today people!!
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