Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Daily Sports Advice: DFS MLB Hitters, Going Through the Lineup

Like I said, I was slacking yesterday on this, so today I owe you.  I'm going to go position by position and give you my thoughts.  Who is worth spending money on, who you should avoid, and why.

Catcher
Catcher is a spot occupied almost nightly by Posey on many lineups, but tonight is a good night to avoid him.  He's just 11-60 vs. Clayton Kershaw over their careers, and he's actually struck out more times than he's hit, with 13 strikeouts.  I'm advising people to forego the Posey choice here, both because he'll be bad if he plays, and because I'm not sure he'll play.  Both his replacements are good against Kershaw: a combined 5-12 with two doubles.  Look for Posey to sit today.  At least out of my lineup.

Today I'm going with Salvador Perez myself in most of my lineups.  I think the mid 3,000's is perfect to pay for him, and he produces for a catcher, with 8 runs and 12 RBI on the season.  A potentially good value buy on the day though, would be Kurt Suzuki, who is 8-21 with 3 doubles, a homerun, and 3 RBI against Kluber throughout their careers.

First Base
First Base is usually an easy but potentially an expensive position to fill.  In many of the most recent days, I've been going with Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera: two hitters I'll avoid today.  While both have been hot to start the season, Gonzalez has been cooling off the past few games, going just 1-12 over the past 3 contests.  He's also been just abysmal against Bumgarner in the past, going just 4-35 and striking out 7 times.  I'm passing on him tonight.

A solid lock on the expensive side tonight is going to be Paul Goldschmidt.  He's 5-7 in past at-bats against Texas starter Yovani Gallardo, and he's batting .314 on the season with 5 homers and 15 RBI.  It's a pretty solid bet he'll continue that trend tonight.  I think also Eric Hosmer is wildly undervalued.  He's part of a very productive offense in Kansas City, and one of few first basemen who will give you the occasional steal also (highly valued at 5 points in Draft Kings).

Second Base
This should be a short section.  Jedd Gyorko is the only real solid, value buy tonight.  He's playing at Coors, and though he's mediocre at the plate and his history isn't much better vs. Kyle Kendrick, he's still right in the middle of that San Diego lineup that's been putting runs on the board throughout this series in Colorado.  I'm thinking they continue to do the same tonight.  You can spend on Robinson Cano if you want to, and it won't be wasted, but I like getting value at second base myself, I don't think it's a spot I should spend a lot of my cap.

Third Base
Another short conversation.  Your choices here are basically Arenado-batting .311 with 3 homers and 10 RBI on the year and 4-5 against James Shields, tonight's pitcher for San Diego-and he's going to be playing in hitter friendly Coors Field tonight, Kris Bryant, or Mike Moustakas.  I went with Moustakas in my original lineup, but I'll make lineups with both Moustakas and Bryant in them I'm sure, maybe even A-Rod.  Arenado is a little too rich for my blood on the corner, especially with Moustakas producing the way he is for $3,000.

Shortstop
Another short conversation-see a trend with the infield here?-Jose Iglesias.  This guy is batting .400 and still valued like a backup.  You can pay almost $1,000 more for Reyes if you like, but Iglesias is my guy today.

Outfielders
My ultimate value buy in the outfield is another Kansas City batter, in Lorenzo Cain.  Here's a batter that contributes in every category, has double digit runs and RBI's, and is still somehow valued outside of the top ten outfielders on both major sites.

Matt Kemp is a bit on the expensive side, in the mid to upper $4,000's, but he's well worth the buy, especially at hitter friendly Coors Field in Colorado.  He's already been pretty productive in the first two games of this series, going 4-8 and scoring 3 runs while batting in 4 as well.  Look for that trend to continue tonight.

Giancarlo Stanton is a player a lot of owners love, but he might be someone I shy away from spending almost $5,000 on tonight.  He's got a lot of history against Cole Hamels, and it's been average at best, with a .279 batting average, 12 hits, and 17 strikeouts in 43 at-bats.  He's too expensive to have a mediocre night.

Justin Upton-He's a good buy tonight, batting .315 on the season and .348 in the matchup against Kendricks.  He'll be a strong candidate to add to the 3 homeruns and 8 RBI's he already has on the season.

Seth Smith-Until now it's been all "chalk" in a sense, in this outfield, but this is the place I'm advising to spend money outside of the mound today.  Smith is my one real sleeper in the outfield, going for the mid $2,000's and coming into a match up against Roberto Perez in which he's gone 4-10 with a double and an RBI in past appearances, I think he could be a sneaky buy to fill in the last spot in your outfield if you've got two big names there already and very little money to find a final player.

There you have it folks!  Now go out and make that money!!!

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