NFL DFS: 5 Players to Avoid in Week 7

Today being Friday, I'll bring you 5 guys from my contrarian lineups, that I absolutely won't count on this week.

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

There's a lot of Patriots on this list this weekend, and it hurts me to do it, as a Pats fan by birth, but I have to.  The Jets' defense is just too good, the Patriots' offensive line has been crumbling due to injury, piece by piece and they matchup vs. the Jets' strength in the d-line.  It's not going to be good.  Last week Brady was able to make up for his line's deficiencies by getting rid of the ball with lightning quickness, but against the cornerbacks of the Jets, and a defense ranked number one vs. the tight end this season, it'll be interesting to see how Tom responds.  While as a fan I hope he figures it out, as an owner I'm just not counting on it.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

The Vikings' pass defense is a bit underrated by fans this season, and I'm not sure people realize how much Stafford was feasting on a poor pass defense vs. the Bears last week.  I think there will be a lot of people buying on Stafford based on last week's performance, and not looking at the match up in front of him where they should be.  Don't be one of them.  He's going to put up less than 15 points this weekend.

Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots

Dion Lewis is another Patriot that I love, and I've ridden to many victories this season, but this weekend I just can't count on him.  The Jets' defense is too tough, and while he's the guy I'd expect Brady to be dumping the ball to, and I'd play him in a season long ppr league, I just can't justify spending the cash on him as a DFS play this weekend, where I NEED guys to produce each week.  Lewis won't be in any of my regular lineups this weekend.

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

Cooper and the Raiders face the league's number one fantasy defense against WR, primarily due to the play of their number one cornerback, who has been shutting down opposing team's number one wideouts.  If anyone in the Raiders' receiving corps is going to have a decent game this weekend, it'll likely be Crabtree.  Keep Cooper out of your lineups this weekend.

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

Edelman would have appeared on this list no matter who the Pats were playing, as I owned him last week and watched him fade immediately after breaking his finger.  I've watched Brady for years, and he loses trust QUICK.  I'm not saying he'll lose trust in Edelman overall, but I don't think he's going to rely on the broken finger catching real well, after his drops last week.  I think Brady cools off Edelman's targets for a few weeks while that finger heals up.  Look for his targets to dip down to maybe 8, just not enough to justify rostering him this weekend.

NBA-Daily Fantasy Advisor Ranks: Point Guard

Every week this NBA season, I'll bring you daily positional ranks.  On Monday it'll be point guards, Tuesday shooting guards, and so forth, until Friday I go over my center rankings.  On Saturday I'll go over team rankings, and Sunday I'll give some team previews for the week and go over some specific team rankings vs. positions, highlight some players you should look at going into that week.  I'm gonna start off the season with a breakdown of my positional rankings.  I'll go through the top 5 in detail, give a sentence on the next five, and then maybe a few deeper guys.  Mostly in DFS you should stick to playing top ten guys as much as you can.  If you're reaching deep on the bench, you're doing it wrong.  You want production from everyone.

So without further ado, the point guard rankings to open the season...

1) Russell Westbrook
 Westbrook produces in so many categories, I'm projecting him 2nd in points per game, 5th in assists per game, 1st in rebounds per game, and 3rd in steals per game among point guards.  This all combines to make him the most valuable fantasy player at the point guard position.  He's a problem for the opposition every night, there simply isn't a point guard in the league you can name that can shut him down.  The only thing that's stopped him so far is injuries, and since you can't and I don't project injuries, you've gotta assume health and project him as the top point guard, and one of the top players overall in the game.  He'll definitely be in the MVP conversation at the end of the season if he stays healthy.

2) Chris Paul
     
Chris Paul is another point guard who produces in every facet of the fantasy game.  From assists (1st) to points (7th) to steals (3rd) he's among the league leaders in production at the point guard position.  There will be a lot of nights you'll play Blake, CP3, and DeAndre all together and benefit from all of their production.  They're one of the few trios in the league whose skill sets truly naturally compliment one another, and as a result all of their production is off the charts.  With a much deeper bench this year, that might dip just a bit in the season, but I think you'll probably be playing them a lot later in June this year.

3) Steph Curry
   

 Some might object to the reigning MVP only making third on the list at his position, let alone overall, but this is a fantasy list not a "value" list, which can be taken many different ways.  In fantasy value, we're just talking about straight up points.  Curry produces in so many categories, but the one he really shines in is three point attempts per game, where he sets himself apart from the field, after setting a record for threes taken in a season last year.  He's a scoring point guard with unlimited range who projects to average about 7 assists per game and 2.1 steals.  What more could you ask for?  If not for the Spurs-like philosophy that has Kerr limiting his minutes at times, or the way the Warriors cruise to wins in such a fashion that he often doesn't need to play fourth quarters he very well might be first on this list.  But as things stand he's a very close third.  There's not a lot of separation at the top here.

4) Damian Lillard

 While the Blazers' playoff chances took a very real hit with the exit of LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard's personal value took off just a bit.  With the Portland's roster in a total rebuild, Lillard should be given free reign to pretty much do what he wants with the basketball.  I'd expect him to decide he wants to do a lot of shooting, and thus, a lot of scoring.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him contend for the league lead in scoring this year as a matter of fact.  Look for him to headline your team many times, and hopefully lead you to more wins than he's likely to lead the Blazers to.

5) John Wall
 Wall had a pretty great fantasy season last year, and I expect his growth to continue.  With the exception of Pierce switching coasts, there's been very little player movement with the Wizards, and given their young nucleus I think that's a good thing, giving them a chance to grow together.  Teammate in the back court Bradley Beal is looking to blossom this year, and Wall should be able to play off that a great deal.  He'll be priced a bit lower than the top tier of point guards, but his production should be similar.  Look to use him a lot this year.

6) Kyle Lowry
Lowry started the season off strong last year, but faded down the stretch as carrying the Raptors took a clear toll on him.  He took the off-season as an opportunity to not only mentally refresh, but physically shape up, shedding weight and looking great in camp.  Look for him to take the next step this year.

7) Eric Bledsoe
The Suns' point guard's value took a hit last year as there were simply too many point guards and not enough minutes for them all.  Look for him to settle in next to Brandon Knight and keep growing alongside his young teammates.

8) Ty Lawson
For Lawson, change may be the best thing to happen to him for a while.  He loves playing fast, and should be a refreshing change at point for the Rockets.  Getting someone capable of handling the ball not named James Harden will be great for this team.  Acquiring Lawson also pushes Beverly back to the bench, relegating him to the defensive stopper off the bench role he's been good at in the past.

9) Reggie Jackson
Jackson comes into the season needing to justify the 5 year, $80 million investment the Pistons made in him, and needing to solidify his hold on the starting point spot with Jennings coming back from injury, but he's certainly got the skill set to do so.  It'll be interesting to see the Pistons this year, and how they work with the subtraction of Greg Monroe.  Will that work a bit like the Jazz did, when they sent Kanter off the OKC and improve the play of their big men, or the opposite?  The answer will have an impact on Reggie Jackson's ceiling this year.

10) Jrue Holiday
Holiday's returning from injury issues, and currently on a 15 minute per game restriction-something that isn't likely to end until January, which hurts his overall fantasy value for full season owners, and limits his value to DFS owners until then.  However, when he's no longer restricted, look for him to put up numbers, as a very talented player at the point position.

5 Players to Play This Weekend

Alright, so starting today I'll be putting out two pieces per day throughout football season, on the NFL.  I'll put out at least the same two pieces each day of the week (except Sunday when I'll put out just one, last minute injury report), so you can come back here every Wednesday for instance, and know you'll find your high value targets, or effective touch leaders, etc.    I'm also going to start writing up weekly rankings, and releasing those position by position throughout the week (on top of the two pieces a day).  I'll write up a similar schedule for NBA as well.

Today being Friday, will bring you my first Friday split: 5 players to play and 5 players to avoid.  In this portion, I'll bring you 5 of the guys I'm featuring in most of my lineups this week, and in the later portion I'll bring you 5 guys from my contrarian lineups, that I absolutely won't count on this week.

Todd Gurley $5,000

Todd Gurley might be the best play of the week, facing a porous Cleveland defense that has been lit up this year, all year long, by nearly everyone that's played them.  Cleveland's been giving up 32.1 points per game to opposing running backs, while simultaneously getting lit up through the air by almost everyone they've played as well.  This is a team that let the Raiders throw for 300+ and run for 150+ in the same game just a few weeks ago.  With no real QB play to fall back on, expect the Rams to pound the rock, punishing the Browns' defense to the tune of more than 150 yards and 1-2 touchdowns with Gurley.  He's a guy who's averaged 152.5 yards on the ground per game since taking over the starting job-and that was against Arizona and Green Bay.  Can you even imagine what he's going to do against Cleveland?  If there was ever a player you were banking on a 200 yard performance from, this just might be it...

Antonio Gates $5,000
If not for Gurley, Gates would be the best and easiest play of the week. Not only is he a player who's seen the Raiders more than almost any other team in his career (24 total games played against them) so he's comfortable maybe more than against any other team, but the Raiders have also changed to a defensive philosophy this year where they apparently don't guard the opposing team's tight end at all, giving up 22.6 points per game on average to the tight end position, and making guys like Gary Barnidge look like all-pros.  Even Crockett Gilmore of the Ravens put up more than 25 points against them!  Start Gates now, as he continues his version of the Tom Brady revenge tour against a familiar old rival.

Charles Clay $4,300

The Bills have to throw the ball to someone, and it won't be Percy Harvin (contemplating retirement back in the states) or Sammy Watkins (hopping on the sidelines in London), so why not Charles Clay?  He's been targeted 13 times twice over the past three games (but just 3 times the game in between those) with 9 receptions both games for 111 and 62 yards, respectively.  The Jags are middle of the pack defensively against the tight end position, and the receiving options have dwindled since his 3 target game.  Look for Clay to get double digit targets this weekend, and put up some fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins $8,600
Hopkins has quite simply been the best receiver in fantasy football, hands down.  He's matchup proof, lousy QB proof, and going to bring returns every time you line him up.  Even with his price at $8,600, I almost feel like he's a bargain every time I roster him.  He's just a guy you feel GREAT about adding.  I feel A LOT better adding him at $8,600 than I do adding Beckham Jr. at $8,700 OR Antonio Brown at $7,900.  Hopkins has been targeted 89 times so far this year, and is averaging better than 100 yards receiving per game, with 5 total touchdowns (including 2 multi-touchdown games).  Miami is really an average pass defense, giving up the 12th most points per game to opposing team's wide receivers.  Hopkins is a strong play this weekend (and a strong GPP stack play with Hoyer as well, for that matter).

Devonta Freeman $7,900
I really feel like I'm taking the easy way out with these two last picks, but they're not the most expensive at their positions, yet they're the most productive players at their positions this year and they're both facing good match ups, so how do you not choose Freeman and Hopkins this week?  At these prices, you can play Freeman, Hopkins, Gurley, and Gates all in the same lineup EASILY.  Stack Hoyer at QB and the Rams defense, you've spent $34,200 and have a running back, 2 wide receiver, and a flex spot to fill ($3,950 average).  Find some decent value plays, and you should be able to fill out a winning lineup card this weekend.  Even if you don't go that full lineup route, pick up Freeman, he'll put up points for you this weekend, as he has every weekend this year.

As always everyone, good luck this weekend!

Potential NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 7

Each week we fill out our rosters with the big names everyone knows and expects to "go off" that week.  We start grabbing these guys, filling out our rosters, and watching our "average per remaining slot" value tumble down, lower and lower.  Eventually you get to a point where you're realizing you need to scrape the bottom of the bucket to fill in a few spots for just a few thousand DK dollars each.  Every week I also try to give you a few targets to look at, that you might be able to do that with.  Here are those picks for this week:

Stefon Diggs, WR Minnesota Vikings $4,200

Diggs has made a bit of a splash in his first two career games, stepping in and playing his first week against the best pass defense in the league in Denver, and following it up with a 7 catch, 129 yard game (good for 22.9 points in DK leagues) against the Chiefs the following game.  While the Vikings' pass offense hasn't exactly been lethal, averaging a paltry 179 yards per game through the air, but they've been on an uptick since the return of Diggs, putting up 212 yards against Denver, and then 237 against the Chiefs.  This week, they play in Detroit against the 22nd ranked pass defense in the league, currently giving up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.  Last time these two teams faced, it wasn't good for the Vikings as they threw for just 151 yards, but Diggs wasn't playing with the team then.  This time he is, and there's no reason to think he won't continue the trend he's quickly set with a game something in the range of 7 catches, 100 yards, and maybe even his first touchdown of the year for a game scoring something in the range of 18-25 points in Draft King leagues.

Christine Michael, RB Dallas Cowboys $3,000
Christine Michael is a guy so far off everyone's radar prior to this week, yet he appears poised to begin handling the bulk of the workload in the Cowboys' back field, according to all reports.  While Darren McFadden is expected to see third down work, limiting Michael's value in ppr leagues (like Draft King leagues), and you have to imagine Randle will still see some work, at $3,000 Michaels doesn't really have to produce a whole lot to justify his selection, even in GPP leagues.  The potential for him to break out with a feature back type of workload game is there also, so he's a must buy for some of your lineups if you're looking for a real lottery type pick up.

Lamar Miller, RB Miami Dolphins $4,400
Lamar Miller isn't exactly the no-name type of player that Michael or Diggs is, but he's been poorly used thus far this season, and his fantasy output has reflected that.  However, in Dan Campbell's first game as head coach of the team, Miller got 22 opportunities, and made the most of them, putting up 5.36 yards per, for a total of 118 yards and one touchdown, good for 22.8 points in Draft Kings leagues.  I expect that trend to continue, making him a strong value buy, putting up about 5 points for every thousand spent.

NFL DFS: Week 7 High Value Targets

As with the running back list the day before yesterday, targets mean nothing if you're not converting them into catches, yards, a ultimately touchdowns.  Sometimes a receiver can be getting targeted a lot and simply not catching them (Jordan Matthews this year for instance).  Other times a receiver is producing a great deal under the radar, and needs to be high-lighted for it.  Here's a list of 5 high value targets so far this season.  Guys that turn targets into points.  THOSE are the guys you need.  Now, to be clear, these are not necessarily the 5 best, in 1-5 order.  They are all top ten however, and lesser than household name type receivers.  Here we go!

Willie Snead WR New Orleans Saints

Willie Snead is a guy whose name you've probably heard on ESPN or NFL Network over the past few weeks.  He's quickly become the favorite target of future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees, and has turned those opportunities into yards more often than not, so he headlines this list.  He's currently averaging just over 6 targets a game and reeling in 68.4% of them for an average of almost 17 yards per catch (11.47 per target).  That's the highest per target average of the guys who caught enough balls to qualify for my list (30) this season and it's for a reason: YAC.  This guy piles up the yards after catch, averaging 6.23 per catch.  He makes a great, productive, and cheap option in Draft Kings leagues.

Rishard Matthews WR Miami Dolphins
Matthews is the lesser known receiver targeted behind Jarvis Landry in Miami, and while his fame and role on the depth chart may be behind Landry, his production has certainly been much better than that of his more well known teammate.  He's averaging just over 6 targets per game, and catching 71.8% of them, for the second best percentage among wide receivers on this list.  When he catches these passes, he turns them into yards, averaging 15.8 yards per reception (11.34 per target) and with 3 touchdown catches on the season.  The Dolphins play the Texans this weekend, and I expect Matthews to exploit the secondary, fill your roster out with him this weekend.

John Brown WR Arizona Cardinals
John Brown is the most targeted player that appears on this list, with 45 targets over 6 games for 7.5 a game.  He's also got the highest catch percentage of any player on this list, pulling in 73.3 percent of those targets for 15.1 yards per catch (or 11.04 per target).  Brown is the closest player to exceeding all goals I set for players to make this list: 75% catch rate, 15 yards per reception, 10 per target.  His 73.3% catch rate leaves him just short of perfection, but he's still appearing at third on this list, so it's not all bad news for him or his owners.  Pick him up this weekend against a poor Detroit secondary inside a dome with a red hot Carson Palmer throwing to him and you could reap the rewards.

Allen Hurns WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Hurns is the sidekick to lead Jaguar receiver Allen Robinson, or one half of the Jags' two Allens.  While he's technically the second option, he's turned it into being the lead producer in that unit.  In 6 games he's been targeted 43 times, and hauled in 29 of those at 15.9 yards per catch.  That includes 4 touchdowns and half a dozen plays of over 20 yards!  His 15.9 per reception and 67.4% catch rate h as him averaging 10.69 per target, a pretty productive receiver.  If he continues being targeted 7 times per game, and catching about 5 of those, that's a minimum of 10.5 fantasy points per game in full ppr leagues.  Add in the likelihood of a touchdown (66% chance) and you're talking a floor of 16.5 points-not bad for a second option.  The Jags are also facing the Bills this week, whose lead CB Stephon Gilmore has held the opposing teams' lead receiver under 100 yards including the likes of Julian Edelman and AJ Green this season.  Sounds like a recipe for that second option to produce like a first option again.

Tight Ends Travis Kelce and Gary Barnidge

I had to throw some non wide-outs on this list, so here's the top pair of tight ends, producing when targeted on the field.  Kelce has been targeted 39 times for the Chiefs, picking up 416 yards through the air with 2 touchdowns.  He's pulled in 74.3% of his targets for best on this list, and averaging 14.3 yards per reception-for 10.6 per target.  Barnidge, has been targeted 40 times and caught 27 of them for 413 yards (really close numbers, right?) and 5 touchdowns over the course of 6 games.  If he continues being targeted about 7 times per game and catching about 5 of them, as well as a touchdown each game as his current rate stands, his floor stands at about 16 points per game, pretty solid for any receiver, let alone a tight end.

Danny Woodhead RB San Diego Chargers
I couldn't not put Woodhead on this list because his YAC is just off the charts, and he's the most productive target at the running back position by a mile (well, 2.5 yards per target, but still that's a lot here).  Woodhead has been targeted 34 times this season, and caught for 332 yards.  What really pumps his position on this list up though, is his YAC, as I previously mentioned.  It's ridiculous, at 11.3 yards per catch!  That's a first down AFTER the reception every time he catches the ball.  It also translates to 8.64 of his total 9.76 yards per target after the catch, meaning a whopping 88.5% of his yards come after the catch.  In PPR leagues, this makes Woodhead a fairly valuable add, especially if you're looking to plug some value buys in DFS leagues.

A few big names who aren't mentioned here but qualify based upon my constraints: Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green.  Thanks for the read, and good luck!

Week 7 Value Stacks

With Rodgers and the Packers on a bye week and the Patriots playing a very tough in division rival known for their defense, owners can be scrambling a bit to find a good stack to build around.  Here are three value stacks you can pick up this week for less money than you're used to spending on guys like Rodgers and Brady.  Good luck!

Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins $13,900 total cost

This is not the farthest reach, given the wild success of Hopkins this season, and his current status as the top fantasy receiver in the NFL right now.  However, a lot of people are missing out on the other half of the stack, as Hoyer is a part time starter this season and just not a big name.  Owners that haven't been picking him up however, have missed out the past two weeks on 48-67 for 605 yards, 5 TD's, and just one interception.  Hoyer can bring some returns, and has thrown for about half a dozen 300 yard games in his career.  I see no reason Sunday against a middle of the pack Dolphins pass defense shouldn't be another one.

Blake Bortles and Allen Hurns $10,700 total cost
While a lot of owners are hearing a lot about Blake Bortles these days, after his two consecutive 300+ yard passing games, but many of those owners might be making the mistake of stacking him with lead receiver Allen Robinson this weekend, instead of Allen Hurns, the receiver from the Jaguars that they should be stacking him with.    Not that Robinson isn't any good, but this week the Jaguars face the Bills, and Stephon Gilmore has been shutting down number one receivers this season in a string of sub 100 yard games surrendered including the likes of Julian Edelman and AJ Green just last week.  I'd expect Hurns to turn this into a big game for him, as Robinson ends up used more like a distraction and Bortles compensates with targets to the other side of the field.

Landry Jones and Martavis Bryant $9,800 total cost

The Steelers are preparing right now as if Landry Jones is starting this weekend, and so am I.  And as such, I'm LOVING him at a $5100 cost and likely less than 5% ownership rate.  Pair him with the big play making ability of Martavis Bryant, and you're looking at a lottery ticket type of buy that just could lead you and your team to the promised land this weekend.  At under a $10,000 combined cost, buy a defense for around $3,000 and you're left with about $37,000 to fill 6 spots with.  Easy to plug and play stars around these two with that kind of money, especially if you go with a cheap tight end and find yourself splitting $33,000 between 5 spots instead.

Good luck everyone!

NFL DFS Strategy Sessions: Double-Stacking

So some of my readers are beginner DFS players, so I'd like to start a series for you, to give you some guidelines by which to build your rosters, and even just to look at players overall, to rate them as far as Draft Kings is concerned primarily, but I expect my guides and ranks to be helpful to fantasy owners in all leagues.  In this edition, we'll tackle double-stacking.

Double-stacking is a fairly simple concept that builds off stacking.  Basically, I want to stack two plays together.  Remembering back to my basic stacking piece, there are three combos you can stack: QB and WR, QB and TE, and RB and DEF.  With double stacking-as the name would imply-you're pairing two of these combos together.  So obviously you have to choose a RB/DEF stack, and then you're choosing a QB and his favorite WR or TE.

Now you'll build the rest of your lineup around these two combinations.  It leaves you a RB, three WR, and a TE or FLEX spot to fill.  How you fill those spots often depends on the stacks you picked.

Often, I'll go with a cheap QB play, especially in GPP lineups.  Give me Brian Hoyer, or Blake Bortles with one of their top receiving options and I'll plug high dollar (and high value) stars around them.  Add a running back and defense combo you expect to play well together and you're setting yourself up for victory.  This week for instance, I'm advising people to play Brian Hoyer/DeAndre Hopkins in a stack for a combined cost of 13,700.  Add in Todd Gurley at $5,000 and the Rams defense at $2,400 for a total of 21,100 between the four.  That leaves you almost $30,000 to fill 5 spots, an easy task at about $6,000 per slot.  That's how you double-stack.

NFL DFS Week 7 "Effective Touch" Leaders

As we all know, daily fantasy is all about opportunity.  Who's getting the most touches and targets, who's throwing the most or projected to throw the most, etc.  But one thing we fail to take into account sometimes, is effectiveness when you're getting those touches and targets.  Today, I'm bringing you some analysis on some of the effective touch leaders on my list.  These are running backs who get carries and targeted often-get the most opportunities-and make the most of that opportunity.  These guys pick up the most yards per opportunity, and get the most opportunities as well.  The players included on this list won't surprise as many as the players excluded from this list.  Exclusion from this list even if you're getting a lot of opportunity, indicates you're not performing up to a set standard (5 yards per opportunity) and can indicate overuse, or inflated value.

Devonta Freeman

The fact that Devonta Freeman is leading this list shouldn't surprise anyone.  He's widely known to be one of-if not THE-most productive backs in the league at this point, from a yards, touchdowns, or touches standpoint.  He gets carries and targets, a high percentage of his team's red zone runs, and his price on Draft Kings from week to week hasn't quite peaked to match his production yet at $7900, making him a value pick up until this week.  The question is whether or not he'll keep that production up through the season, and given his health I don't see why not, the Shanahan system tends to produce running backs that pile up yardage.  If the return of Tevin Coleman doesn't cut into his 24.5 opportunities per game too much, Freeman should continue putting up the 5.45 yards per touch he's been getting thus far.

Chris Ivory
Ivory is second on my list due primarily to the number of carries he gets, as he's not a player that hauls in too many catches (6 receptions on 8 targets through 5 games).  He does however, get the bulk of red zone touches on his team (64% in the red zone) and that percentage only climbs the closer you get to the end zone itself, going up to 84 and then 89 percent inside the ten and five yard lines, respectively.  This has lead to 4 touchdowns this season, all of them from runs starting in the red zone.  He's third in rushing attempts per game behind Matt Forte and Le'Veon Bell (both conspicuously absent from this list thus far) at nearly 21 per game, and when you factor in his ridiculous 5.74 yards per opportunity rate, you can see why he's second on this list, gaining on average nearly 131 yards per game off his 23 opportunities.

Le'Veon Bell

Bell has been noticeably absent from this list so far, primarily due to his over-usage this season-a direct result of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.  This usage has resulted in Bell carrying the ball 21.5 times per game, and getting targeted 5 times a game in the passing game as well, leaving him leading the league in opportunities by almost 2 per game: 26.5 to Freeman's 24.53.  The fact that defenses have been able to focus almost entirely on Bell however, has limited his production per opportunity to just 4.69 yards per, which ultimately pushed him down this list to third amongst those eligible for my list, at 124.25 yards of production per game.  I think the coming return of "Big Ben" will be good for Bell's production per opportunity, and while it may eat into the overall opportunities, his total isn't likely to suffer.

Todd Gurley
The rookie didn't take long to make his impact on the league, putting up back to back games in weeks 4 and 5 in the 150 rushing yard range, and sky-rocketing his value up this particular list in the process.  His 19.3 opportunities per game isn't staggering, but his 5.76 yards per opportunity puts him right up there with the best.  His carries have gone from 6 to 19 to 30 in his first three games, and I expect his usage to plateau about 25 carries per game, with a target thrown in every once in a while.  If he continues to produce at the rate he has been, he could easily find the top of this list before too long, as 25 opportunities per game at his current rate would push his overall score up this scale from the 111.14 it currently stands at to nearly 144!  Buy this guy every week you can, especially while his price remains below the level of other elite backs on this list like Bell or Freeman.

Adrian Peterson
Old reliable, Adrian Peterson has been doing it for the longest of any of the backs on this list and he just won't quit.  While he hasn't yet had any of those jaw-dropping "All Day" type games this season, he has consistently been producing when given the opportunity, and he's getting plenty of opportunities.  Now, at 4.6 yards per opportunity, he barely cleared my bar of 4.5 to qualify for the list, but his 22.6 opportunities per game built around 20 carries a game was enough to put him over 100 yards of production per game and make him 5th on this list.

Notable "Snubs"
Matt Forte
Forte is the most recognizable and surprising name not on this list, given his staggering workload of 26.3 opportunities per game.  Unfortunately, I fear the Bears may be riding him a bit too much here, driving his production per opportunity down to 4.42 yards per; just under the 4.5 per bar set for inclusion on this list.  I think if you're not producing per opportunity, forcing the opportunities is a warning sign that you're riding a guy too hard, and he's getting too much punishment.  It's a recipe for failure, and potentially injury.
Justin Forsett
Forsett is another name I thought would be on this list when I started thinking about writing this article.  Then I sat down and looked at my databases, and was surprised to discover he wasn't.  While he's heavily involved in the passing game at 5.3 targets per game, he has two teammates that cut into his carries, leaving him just over 17 attempts per game.  Multiply by a rather weak production of about 4.3 yards per opportunity, and he doesn't quite crack 100 a game, leaving him off my top 5 effective touch leaders list.
Doug Martin
Martin didn't quite make this list, as his production this season is just starting to pile up.  If he continues at the rate he's been running the past two games this weekend when he returns to action, I expect him to bring his current 99.8 rating well up over 100 in the very near future, vaulting him into the top 5 by the next time I bring you this list perhaps.

Week 7 Trap Play-Temper Your Expectations This Week

I've been thinking, I'm going to make this "Trap Play" a weekly feature.  I'll write it mid-week, warning readers a popular play, or typically strong play to steer clear of that week, and why.  We'll also go over my prior week warning, and how that worked out.  First off, to review the past two weeks' advice:

Two weeks ago, I told owners to steer clear of Julio Jones for the week.  He was just going to cost a lot, and was probably going to be owned in a high percentage of leagues that week.  In the Draft Kings leagues I was in, he was on between 15-20% of teams.  That week (against the Redskins) he caught just 5 passes on 10 targets for 67 yards and no touchdowns for 11.7 points in Draft Kings leagues.

Last week, I told people to stay away from Andy Dalton and AJ Green, that they were in a "trap" matchup vs. the Bills, whose defense was underrated.  Dalton went to Buffalo and threw 22 of 33 for 243 yards, but 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, which saved his day from total disaster, giving him 21.52 points in Draft Kings leagues.  That probably still disappointed the 20-25% of owners in Draft Kings leagues that owned him.  AJ Green caught just 4 passes on 7 targets for 36 yards and no touchdowns for 7.6 total points in Draft Kings leagues.

This week, I'm telling people to watch out for the Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald stack.  It's a juicy looking match up that I expect analysts and experts to pump up all week, so they'll be a high percentage owned pair, probably 20+% in Draft Kings leagues.  However, I think it could be a trap game, and here's why:

The Cardinals have been on a tear this year through the air, reigniting Larry Fitzgerald's career, and exciting fantasy owners everywhere.  But, there have been two games in which their offense has deeply disappointed fantasy owners: two blowout wins, one over Detroit and one over Chicago.  Only once has the passing offense in Arizona put the pedal to the metal, and destroyed the defense from start to finish; against the 49ers, an in division rival.  Baltimore is not that.  Baltimore is a team the Cardinals should beat pretty easily, and when Palmer has the chance to beat a team easily, he does so.

In Detroit, the running game carried the Cardinals to the win, and Palmer was happy to sit back and let them do so, throwing the ball just 14 times for 161 yards-although with 3 touchdowns for a low 20's fantasy point total.  Not quite what you expected in the dome at Detroit vs. a porous lions pass defense.

In Chicago, the defense and special teams won the game for the Cardinals, and again, Palmer was happy to let them do so, throwing it just 24 times for 185 yards.  Granted, he threw for 4 touchdowns-again, saving his day for fantasy owners-but his fantasy total was a bit underwhelming, considering what you might have expected going into the game.

Now, in those two blowout wins, Larry Fitzgerald has caught 4 of his 6 touchdowns, so I'd definitely advise using him as a compliment in lineups you've got $7,000 in Draft Kings to spare, and I'm not saying they'll have a bad day, I just wouldn't be shocked if they had an underwhelming day-particularly Carson Palmer-and I don't expect the teams winning GPP's to be playing a Palmer-Fitzgerald stack.

They may be a solid play for cash games though, you can probably pencil both in for 20 points each.  Just don't expect the kind of blowout game you'd get if they were in a closer contest, and Carson was throwing it 40-50 times like he did against the Rams and Steelers, putting up 300+ yard games both times.

Late Injury Notes...

We're on the eve of week 6, and some interesting tid bits have been coming out regarding injuries.  Here's a few players with injury issues I'd steer clear from in DFS this week.  If you follow me regularly, you know I shy away from players with ANY questions at all.  You just don't want to have concerns about a guy when you're playing him for one week.  It's a different animal than drafting a guy for a season, and sitting him for a few weeks while you play his backup.  Here are the guys I'm most concerned about right now:

QB Andrew Luck
Luck could have been a great play in this game.  The Patriots' defense isn't particularly good, especially their secondary which has notably lost a lot since their last match up vs. the Colts, with Revis and Browner both playing elsewhere this year, and with the expected aggression of the Patriots it would have forced a lot of throws from the Colts.  Unfortunately, Luck's been limited in practice this week, and despite having taken two games off, he may very well sit in a game the Colts are expected to be blown out in.  I'd stay away from him, and maybe think about playing the Patriots' defense.

RB Justin Forsett
The Ravens added RB Terrence McGee from their practice squad, a seemingly bad sign for Forsett this weekend in what-again-would have been a great match up vs. one of the weaker run defenses in the league in the 49ers.  This paves the way for his backup Javorious "Buck" Allen, who should get a lot of carries for a low DFS price.  He'll be a great filler in lineups.

WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Odell hasn't practiced all week, and has officially been listed as "questionable" for Monday night's game vs. the Giants.  Given the investment you need to make to get him this week (8900 in Draft Kings) and again my "no questions at all" philosophy, as well as the fact that he's playing Monday night and would be VERY hard to replace at that price at the last minute in a cost efficient manner, I'd steer FAR away from Odell this week.  In fact, I'm hoping his usage rate is high so others are potentially screwed by him while I play his teammate Reuben Randle (probable) and even Dwayne Allen or perhaps even tight end Larry Donnell.  Those three's targets should be high (I'm thinking 8-10 each) and with low prices in the 3000-4500 range on Draft Kings, they'll be great value picks/fillers for your team.

I'll update again tomorrow morning with the latest information on these players and others that may impact your lineups.