Friday, October 23, 2015

NBA-Daily Fantasy Advisor Ranks: Point Guard

Every week this NBA season, I'll bring you daily positional ranks.  On Monday it'll be point guards, Tuesday shooting guards, and so forth, until Friday I go over my center rankings.  On Saturday I'll go over team rankings, and Sunday I'll give some team previews for the week and go over some specific team rankings vs. positions, highlight some players you should look at going into that week.  I'm gonna start off the season with a breakdown of my positional rankings.  I'll go through the top 5 in detail, give a sentence on the next five, and then maybe a few deeper guys.  Mostly in DFS you should stick to playing top ten guys as much as you can.  If you're reaching deep on the bench, you're doing it wrong.  You want production from everyone.

So without further ado, the point guard rankings to open the season...

1) Russell Westbrook
 Westbrook produces in so many categories, I'm projecting him 2nd in points per game, 5th in assists per game, 1st in rebounds per game, and 3rd in steals per game among point guards.  This all combines to make him the most valuable fantasy player at the point guard position.  He's a problem for the opposition every night, there simply isn't a point guard in the league you can name that can shut him down.  The only thing that's stopped him so far is injuries, and since you can't and I don't project injuries, you've gotta assume health and project him as the top point guard, and one of the top players overall in the game.  He'll definitely be in the MVP conversation at the end of the season if he stays healthy.

2) Chris Paul
     
Chris Paul is another point guard who produces in every facet of the fantasy game.  From assists (1st) to points (7th) to steals (3rd) he's among the league leaders in production at the point guard position.  There will be a lot of nights you'll play Blake, CP3, and DeAndre all together and benefit from all of their production.  They're one of the few trios in the league whose skill sets truly naturally compliment one another, and as a result all of their production is off the charts.  With a much deeper bench this year, that might dip just a bit in the season, but I think you'll probably be playing them a lot later in June this year.

3) Steph Curry
   
 Some might object to the reigning MVP only making third on the list at his position, let alone overall, but this is a fantasy list not a "value" list, which can be taken many different ways.  In fantasy value, we're just talking about straight up points.  Curry produces in so many categories, but the one he really shines in is three point attempts per game, where he sets himself apart from the field, after setting a record for threes taken in a season last year.  He's a scoring point guard with unlimited range who projects to average about 7 assists per game and 2.1 steals.  What more could you ask for?  If not for the Spurs-like philosophy that has Kerr limiting his minutes at times, or the way the Warriors cruise to wins in such a fashion that he often doesn't need to play fourth quarters he very well might be first on this list.  But as things stand he's a very close third.  There's not a lot of separation at the top here.

4) Damian Lillard
 While the Blazers' playoff chances took a very real hit with the exit of LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard's personal value took off just a bit.  With the Portland's roster in a total rebuild, Lillard should be given free reign to pretty much do what he wants with the basketball.  I'd expect him to decide he wants to do a lot of shooting, and thus, a lot of scoring.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him contend for the league lead in scoring this year as a matter of fact.  Look for him to headline your team many times, and hopefully lead you to more wins than he's likely to lead the Blazers to.

5) John Wall
 Wall had a pretty great fantasy season last year, and I expect his growth to continue.  With the exception of Pierce switching coasts, there's been very little player movement with the Wizards, and given their young nucleus I think that's a good thing, giving them a chance to grow together.  Teammate in the back court Bradley Beal is looking to blossom this year, and Wall should be able to play off that a great deal.  He'll be priced a bit lower than the top tier of point guards, but his production should be similar.  Look to use him a lot this year.

6) Kyle Lowry
Lowry started the season off strong last year, but faded down the stretch as carrying the Raptors took a clear toll on him.  He took the off-season as an opportunity to not only mentally refresh, but physically shape up, shedding weight and looking great in camp.  Look for him to take the next step this year.

7) Eric Bledsoe
The Suns' point guard's value took a hit last year as there were simply too many point guards and not enough minutes for them all.  Look for him to settle in next to Brandon Knight and keep growing alongside his young teammates.

8) Ty Lawson
For Lawson, change may be the best thing to happen to him for a while.  He loves playing fast, and should be a refreshing change at point for the Rockets.  Getting someone capable of handling the ball not named James Harden will be great for this team.  Acquiring Lawson also pushes Beverly back to the bench, relegating him to the defensive stopper off the bench role he's been good at in the past.

9) Reggie Jackson
Jackson comes into the season needing to justify the 5 year, $80 million investment the Pistons made in him, and needing to solidify his hold on the starting point spot with Jennings coming back from injury, but he's certainly got the skill set to do so.  It'll be interesting to see the Pistons this year, and how they work with the subtraction of Greg Monroe.  Will that work a bit like the Jazz did, when they sent Kanter off the OKC and improve the play of their big men, or the opposite?  The answer will have an impact on Reggie Jackson's ceiling this year.

10) Jrue Holiday
Holiday's returning from injury issues, and currently on a 15 minute per game restriction-something that isn't likely to end until January, which hurts his overall fantasy value for full season owners, and limits his value to DFS owners until then.  However, when he's no longer restricted, look for him to put up numbers, as a very talented player at the point position.

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