NBA: Most Clutch NBA Players of the 2000's

Wade, Kobe, and Lebron are among the best to have played in
the NBA since the year 2000, but who is the most clutch to
have played over that time?  Is it one of them, or another player?

One of the hardest measurements in sports to pin down is what many refer to as the "clutch gene", which is probably why we talk about it all the time.  Go to any facebook group, you'll see discussion about who is the most clutch, who do you want with the ball in their hands if your favorite team is down 1?  What if they're down 2 and need a 3 to win?  How does that change the equation?

Well, I thought I'd take a look at the data, as opposed to the opinions.  We've all heard the opinions right?  The data however-at some levels-has some real surprises in there.  So I took to www.basketball-reference.com and started breaking it all down, using their "shot finder" tool there.  Here are the parameters that I used, to define a "clutch shot".  Yours may differ, feel free to let me know how they do, perhaps I'll run it a few other ways down the road.  Here were my parameters:

1) The shot was taken in the final 10 seconds of the 4th quarter or overtime.
2) The shot was to tie or lead the game.
3) The data contains shots taken in both the regular season AND the postseason

B/R's shot finder tool only searches back through the 2000 season, and you have to go year by year as far as I could tell.  I did so, compiling 17 years of last ten seconds shot data into one easy to understand chart, and then further broke those down, weeding out the irrelevant, grouping up the quick to cover, and pulling out the gems of random information you probably didn't know before but will feel smarter about knowing now (or at least I didn't and do, lol).  Here goes:

TOTAL SHOTS TAKEN

In total, between the 2000-2001 NBA season, and the 2016-2017 NBA season, 790 players took at least one shot that qualified as "clutch" under my definition (see above).  Of those players, 277 did not make a field goal that matched my definition of "clutch".

Can't make the game winner
Of those 790 players, 277 did not make a field goal that matched my definition of "clutch", the most attempts taken by any one of those players were taken by Bob Sura.  Sura's career started prior to 2000, so we don't have all the data available, but over the course of the final 7 seasons of his career it seems he took 11 shots in the final 10 seconds of the 4th quarter or overtime to tie or win the game, but didn't manage to make a single one!  8 of those shots were three point attempts, and the 11 shots took place over the course of 9 games (multiple attempts in the same game from time to time for some of these players), meaning basically that Bob Sura single-handedly lost 9 games for teams (split between the Warriors and Rockets) between 2000-2007.  Which is pretty amazing really.  What a legacy.  And that's with 5 years of losing games in clutch moments that we don't have the data on yet!

Active Players that CANNOT "Seal the Deal"

Several active players appeared high on the "'clutch attempts but no makes" list.  The "top" players were:
Jared Dudley, 9 attempts 0 makes.

Roy Hibbert, 8 attempts 0 makes.

Wilson Chandler, 7 attempts 0 makes.

Ish Smith, 7 attempts 0 makes.

Joel Embiid, 5 attempts 9 makes.

There are several interesting notes here of course:
Dudley is considered by most to be a long distance threat.  Clearly not in "clutch time" however.  I've never heard that highlighted however.

Hibbert just can't do anything right can he?

Embiid catches the eye.  With something like just 31 career games played thus far, it's amazing he's even had the opportunity to win the game on 5 occasions thus far.  Those 5 attempts came in 3 games, so it's 10% of his career games played that he's had the opportunity to seal the deal.  And unfortunately come up short every time.

Wants to be clutch

Who wants to take the clutch shot the most?  Over the past 17 years, one player stands out as having taken the most clutch shots, and it's not even close.  Kobe Bryant has put up 137 shots in the last 10 seconds of games for the tie or win since the beginning of the 2000-2001 season.  Now this doesn't cover his entire career obviously, as he was drafted prior to 2000.  However, those first four years Shaq would have been more "the guy" down the stretch-or even Horry-as Kobe was kind of up and coming, so I'm not sure the numbers would balloon too much if I were able to track them back that far.  I plan to look for ways to do just that in the future, as I'd love to see some of the 90's and 80's stars included in these measurements.

Behind Kobe, comes a list of mostly the exact names you'd expect.  Here they are real quick, followed by the number of clutch attempts they've taken.  For most of these guys, this chart WILL cover their entire careers, as it goes back 17 years.  For some, it won't.  I'll try to highlight those players.  Here are the rest of the top ten in clutch FGA from 2000-2017:

101 attempts Lebron James

99 attempts Paul Pierce

85 attempts Carmelo Anthony

84 attempts Vince Carter

79 attempts Kevin Durant

78 attempts Joe Johnson

77 attempts: (2 players) Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade

66 attempts: Russell Westbrook

When it really comes down to it, volume+percentage of success may be the best measurement of "clutch gene", and so to properly measure this we should pretty much take the biggest volume guys, and look at their shot percentage.  We'll do that given two scenarios: your team down by 1 and your team down by 2.  Or 2pt fg's vs 3pt fg's.

Volume Clutch Shooter Analysis

Team Down by One Point
If your team is down by one point, and you're choosing among the ten highest volume clutch shooters (Kobe, Lebron, Pierce, Melo, Vince, KD, Joe Johnson, Dirk, Wade, and Russ) over the 2000-2017 seasons, you're best served to give the ball to Dirk.  Over that period of time, Dirk has influenced 68 games at clutch time, taking 77 shots-28 three point attempts and 49 two point attempts.  Hitting 22 of those 49 two point attempts gives him the highest 2 point shot clutch percentage amongst the top ten volume clutch shooters, at 44.9%.  Behind him come Melo (38.6% on 22-57 shooting) and Kobe (35.1% on 26-74 shooting).  The last player from the top ten you want is going to surprise some people, as it's Kevin Durant.  He's taken 36 two point shots to tie or win the game in the final ten seconds of the 4th or OT, but he's made just NINE of those shots, giving him a pretty surprisingly low clutch 2 point shooting percentage of just 25%!  Along with him at 25% is-again a shocker-Paul Pierce, who went 15-60 in such scenarios.  In fact all 7 other volume clutch shooters shot under 30% from 2 point range at "clutch time" under my definition.  (Interestingly enough Dirk-who topped the high volume list from 2-comes in 32nd on this list.)

Team Down by 2
If you need a three to win the game, and you happen to have one of the ten highest volume clutch shooters on your roster, the guy you really want to give the ball to is Vince Carter.  Over the past 17 years (and he had three before that, so he could have a few more) he's hit 18 of 45 three pointers at clutch time to put his team on top or tie things up.  This is a rate of FORTY PERCENT!  That makes him easily the leader of the volume clutch time shooters, coming in 15% higher than the next player on the list; Joe Johnson, who shot 7-27 for 25.95%.  Coming in third would be Melo, shooting 7-28 for 25%.  Only one other player shot better than 20% at clutch time from three; Kevin Durant, 10-43 for 23.26%.  The rest came in under 20%, including Wade who shot a paltry 7.14%, making just 2 of 28 clutch three point attempts.

Including other players

The clutch moment isn't just about the best players though.  In some games, the ball can end up in just about anybody's hands, and everyone is expected to be able to do the right thing.  There are some that can't, and there are some that will surprise all of us.  Let me first explain my grouping real quick:

In speaking of the entire group in percentages, I'll include only those who had at least 5 clutch FGA's.  The average # of attempts among the 790 players was 10, I figured half the average was a fair measurement.  However, I also wanted to see the ranks at other levels, so I worked those up to.

Overall Field Goals

Min 5 FGA at Clutch Time
369 players qualified for percentage measurements of the group, having attempted at least 5 field goals at "clutch time" between 2000-2017.  Of those players, 21 belong to the "can't hit at clutch time" club, having hit 0 of their attempts.  Another 17 have hit at least 50% of their clutch attempts, 12 of those players are still active).  The top performer on the overall list would be one of the first big surprises of this analysis: Eddy Curry, shooting 5 for 6 in clutch moments.  Only one of those shots was a 3, but he made it.  Amir Johnson and David Lee round out the top three on the overall list, both having shot 4 for 6 in clutch moments, for a clutch shot percentage of 66.67%.

Min 10 FGA at Clutch Time
When I cranked the requirements up to 10 clutch FGA minimum, the numbers changed a bit as you'd expect.  Eddy Curry obviously fell off the list, having taken just 6 attempts, as did Amir and David, both having taken just 6.  So who moved into the top three spots?  Three players most fans probably know well; Udonis Haslem (6 of 11 for 54.55%), Marc Gasol (8 of 16 for an even 50%), and Al Horford (7 of 15 for 46.67%).  Just behind them comes in Anthony Davis, 6 for 13 for 46.15%), which gives us our top three active (Gasol-Horford-Davis).

Raising the bar

For the next level of measurement, I've tripled the average (10) to set the floor at 30 FGA at clutch time.  Using this parameter, Rudy Gay comes in as the best clutch shooter, going 20 for 55 for a 36.36%.  Coming in 2nd and 3rd are Dirk (27 of 77) and Ray Allen (22 of 63) at 35.06 and 34.92% respectively.  With Ray retired, Tony Parker would be the next active player to round out the top three active players with 25+ FGA at clutch time, going 13 of 38 for 34.21%.  At this point, you can see some of these guys are going to start sticking around through the final top ten (Dirk here).

I raised the minimum one final time before the top ten, setting the floor at 50 FGA at clutch time-or about 5 times the average.  Using this parameter-as I'm sure you can guess-we get the same initial top 3 of Gay, Dirk, and Ray (all had 50+ FGA).  However, filling out the active three we get one change, as Melo takes the place of Parker, who only has 38 attempts in clutch time.  Melo features a stat line of 39 for 85, for 34.12% at clutch time.  He and Dirk will both be in the top ten, seen above, with Dirk coming in on top in overall fg% at clutch time, as well as 2 point %.  Dirk comes in 5th of those top ten guys in 3 point % however, with a disappointing 17.86%, otherwise he'd be the clear lock for "most clutch player".  Even at 5th in 3 point % however, he makes a pretty compelling statistical case thus far, 

Overall List, Down by 1 point (Need a 2 point basket)

Okay, so I've broken down the overall FGA at clutch time, but what I want to do is find out who the best is on the overall list when you need 2, and who the best is when you need 3.  I'll give you the top 5 in both situations:
Of the 790 players on the list, 127 hadn't attempted a 2 point shot in clutch time, so they were taken out immediately.  That left 663 who had, with an average of 6.25 shot attempts per.  I used 6 as the requirement for shot percentage to count.  That left me with a list of 209 players who took at least 6 clutch shots from 2 point range between 2000-2017.  Of those 209 players, 6 were unable to hit any of their clutch time shots (Hibbert's name has already been mentioned, but I'll highlight Kevin Love as being on this list here, going 0 for 6 at clutch time).

Some players however, rise to the occasion.  The following players make up the top 5 active players who statistics over the past 17 seasons suggest you'd want most with the ball in their hands if your team was down 1 point and needed to win at clutch time:
Nene Hilario has made 5 of 7 two pointers at clutch time, for a 71.43 clutch shot %
Devin Booker and David Lee have made 4 of 6 two pointers, for a 66.67%
Pau Gasol has made 12 of 19 clutch shots from two point range, for a 63.16%
Kenneth Faried has made 5 of 8 shots at cluch time, for a 62.50 clutch shooting percentage.

Other active players in the top 20 of the past 17 seasons from 2 point range at clutch time include Brook Lopez, Al Horford, Jeff Green, and Jrue Holiday.

Overall List, you need a three

Of the 790 players on the list of clutch time shooters from 2000-2017, 194 have not taken a three pointer at clutch time.  This leaves 596 who have, with an average of just under six 3pt FGA per shooter.  Again, I'll use 6 3pt FGA as my requirement for the percentage list.  This eliminates an even 400 players who have taken less than 6 three point field goal attempts at clutch time from 2000-2017, leaving 196.  Thinking back to the top guys list, it's hard to believe many-if any-would top Vince Carter's clutch three point shooting percentage of 40%, however he comes in just 7th on the overall list, once the 6 FGA parameter has been input.  The six players he comes in behind: Chris Bosh, Moochie Norris, Avery Bradley, David Wesley, Allan Houston, and Steve Blake, obviously just two of which (Bradley and Bosh-arguably) are active.  Despite the fact that Avery has a higher 3pt percentage than Vince (4 of 8 for 50%) who comes in at 40% having gone 18 of 45, Vince may still make the better choice, given that he's had 5 times the experience taking those shots.  Tied with Vince on the list, is Ray Allen, having gone 14 for 35 over his career, putting him at an even 40% clutch three point shooting as well.

Conclusion?
Well, one might look at these lists and conclude that with experience, comes clutch ability.  The guys that top these lists aren't the guys that just make it over the low bar in attempts, they're quite often the guys you think of when you think of reliability from range.  This list really ended up containing what you'd think of as the usual suspects for the most part, with some surprises thrown in from the 5-15 FGA range, but otherwise not really blowing anybody's hair back.  When applied to recent events, it does also kind of serve to highlight a few things:

A few things only people who read this piece are likely to know now:
*Bradley's value to the Celtics might have been understated, as he's clearly a guy they both go to in the clutch, and has success there.  Horford is another guy they have on their roster that can perform under pressure, and recent rumors have them pursing Marc Gasol, another name featured on this list.  If they were able to land him, they'd replace that clutch ability they lost when trading away Bradley, although almost nobody would see a "replacement" of Bradley in Gasol, after having read this piece, you will.
**Eddy Curry as a clutch winner...who'd have thunk it?  This may be the biggest surprise on the list, as he's routinely thought of as a contender for biggest draft bust ever.

***Embiid's number had to catch more eyes than just mine.  0-5 in clutch moments over 3 games in just 31 career games played is wild.  I mean, it's obviously not good-but it might not be all bad either.  OR it might be ALL BAD in caps.  It's really too early to say, but at the same time it's too high not to notice.  Keep an eye on him at the end of games, see if he gets nervous.
****Brook Lopez may end up being an underrated addition in the off-season.  As LAL tries to get better, like any team trying to make that "next step" they'll need to find a way to win close games.  Some teams can't do that, and it can be the difference between being a sub .500 team and being a playoff contender.  Lopez having gone 9-18 in the clutch over his career, could very well be the guy they come to depend on down the stretch, and help them turn things around in LA faster than many expect.

Thanks for reading.  After all this information, who do YOU think is the most clutch shooter in the NBA?

Could the Celtics and Kings Be Close to a Blockbuster Trade?

The Topic

Is Fultz the motivation behind what could be a blockbuster
draft day trade involving the first overall pick and one of
the league's most storied franchises?

There's been a great deal of chatter over the past few days, generated by an alleged scheduled workout for consensus #1 NBA draft prospect Markelle Fultz with the Sacramento Kings, who currently not only don't have the top pick, but don't have a top three pick (and thus don't have a chance of drafting Fultz without trading up).  If the workout WAS scheduled, and does happen, that's an important thing.  Because there's no reason for Fultz to schedule a workout unless even he thinks it's a real scenario, and I'm sure his agent would be tapped into things at least a bit.  And for the Celtics, there would be no reason to showcase him ahead of playing him if they intended to draft him and hold onto him definitely.  So I wanted to go over what it might take to make this trade happen.

Why would the Kings do it?              

Crowder seems dissatisfied with Boston at times, and with his
team friendly contract (about $7 mil/yr for next 3 yrs) could
be a good veteran for Sacramento to target in this trade.

The Kings got fleeced this past winter in the Cousins trade, and this off-season just might be Vlade Divac's only chance to make up for that.  To do so, he likely feels a great deal of pressure to land a superstar player the team can build around.  Currently, the team has only Langston Galloway at the point guard position locked in for next season, and with just 50 games started over four years of playing on some of the worst teams this league has to offer, it's safe to say Galloway just isn't a starter in this league.  Enter Fultz, who would give them a point guard who some think could be a Russell Westbrook type in terms of being a triple double threat and scoring machine at the next level.

Why would the Celtics say yes?
For the Celtics part, Ainge couldn't be in a more opposite position than Divac, feeling almost no pressure at all.  With his team just having played in the Eastern Conference Finals despite sporting only one all star on the roster and no MVP candidates, and sitting on the number one pick in the draft with a good deal of other future assets many consider and project to be valuable, he's in the perfect position to wheel and deal.  For Divac, it's like going shopping when you're hungry.  For Ainge, it's like going with your fitness instructor.

Boston could use an interior defensive presence
like Cauley-Stein would bring.  With him and
the two picks they get from Sacramento, they
could completely rebuild their front court
behind starter Al Horford.

Ainge doesn't have to look far from the Celtics' front office to see a draft strategy that works and produces superstars, in Foxboro, about 30 minutes from where Ainge punches the clock, sits another New England GM who has written the book on smart drafting, and that involves trading back, and taking multiple bites at the proverbial apple.  What better way to do it not only with two top ten picks, but in what many consider to be the deepest draft in at least a decade?  Ainge could greatly benefit from a trade scenario with the Kings.  Beyond that, it takes the pressure off of him to draft a point guard and further clog up an already crowded back court, full of players Ainge and the rest of the front office really like, and have heavily invested in.

What would they trade?
I think that the Celtics walk in with an absolute bottom line of the Kings' 5th and 10th overall picks in this year's draft, and a player throw in-with their eyes on Willie Cauley-Stein, who would solve a lot of size and interior defensive issues for them.  The 5th and 10th picks would allow them to target players that fill other needs as well, such as perhaps Malik Monk, or Justin Jackson as defensive minded wing players with range to eventually replace Bradley and/or Crowder, or bigger forwards like Jonathan Isaac, Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, or even their original top target Josh Jackson, depending on how the top 4 shakes out after the trade at the top.

The Kings should ask for the first overall pick of course, but I think they should also try to score some role players, from an organization with many.  I think Crowder is a player that could be picked up.  Perhaps even by throwing in their 2018 first round pick (conditionally I'd assume).  If they could somehow go after one of the Celtics' many guards as well, that'd be a huge score, maybe by making that draft pick unconditional?  After all, it's not like Fultz-Crowder-Zeller or whatever is getting out of the West anytime soon anyway.  Gay will be gone next season most likely, and they'll need someone to start at the 3.  He's got a great contract, and landing him would be considered a score that might help save Divac's job if he's on the hot seat at all, which some would assume he is.

Additionally, I think Sacramento should ask for Tyler Zeller in return.  He'd give them a serviceable big in place of Cauley-Stein at a reasonable contract rate of $8 million next season.
While the Kings like youngster Skal Labissierre, and also have veteran Kosta Koufos on the roster, Zeller would give them an additional rotational big man, and an extra insurance policy in the front court should anything go wrong.  The Celtics should be okay with losing him, and might even want to, in order to spend the money bringing back Kelly Olynyk or even on other players elsewhere.  $8 million is a solid chunk of money to take off your books,  Especially when it's spent on a player who has played 10 mpg the last two seasons and missed over 40 games in that same span.

This could be anything from a smokescreen rumor, to a simple pick swap, to a huge, impactful trade for both teams.  These are the important pieces however.  Who would you like to see be involved in this trade, and who do you think would win these scenarios above?

NBA 2017 Mock Draft 1.0

Here's my NBA mock draft.  There seem to be a few "consensus" type picks amongst fans out there, but you'll quickly see that I don't buy it.  I lead off with a surprise, and draft prospects only start falling from there.  Read on and find out who I have your favorite team drafting and why, then tell me what YOU think:

1. Boston Celtics - Josh Jackson F, Kansas
   And right off the bat, a lot of people are going to say I'm going off the rails.  But personally, I think adding a fourth point guard to the Boston roster would be going off the rails!  Boston's front office LOVES Marcus Smart, their backup point guard, and they really like Rozier also.  They spent a 6th and 15th pick on these guys respectively, they don't want to let them go.  And they've got IT at a GREAT rate next season, giving Smart and Rozier both another year to continue to develop.  I think the Celtics' front office is very comfortable with those two running the point after next season, and IT handling it next year.  They have no need for a point guard.
   While some might argue other players are better fits, or that Jackson is too similar to Brown, Jackson is the guy the Celtics' front office likes.  Look around the league, it's become more and more positionless by the year.  6-8 forwards with range that can defend, rebound, get to the hoop, you just can't have too many of them.  I think Brown and Jackson could play next to each other and be VERY effective.  In fact I think things set up very well for the Celtics long term right now, if they draft a forward here, then hope to draft Luka Doncic next year to replace a departing Bradley, they could easily stay in contention for the top of the East, while building for a great long term future as well.  Meanwhile drafting another point guard just gives them headaches.
2. LA Lakers - Markelle Fultz G, Washington
   The Celtics passing on Fultz in favor of Jackson sets the Lakers up for the best excuse they could hope for to get out of drafting Ball, and bringing the Ball family circus-now vindicated by having had their demands of the NBA satisfied by being a Laker-to the Staples Center.  That kind of sideshow is better suited for a franchise like Sacramento, or Orlando.
   The Lakers bring in Fultz who starts alongside Russell and immediately upgrades their backcourt, providing a significant scoring punch.  With Ingram and Randle continuing to develop in the front court, they'll have a core to build around.
3. Philadelphia 76ers - DeAaron Fox G, Kentucky
   While this isn't my first controversial pick, some might see it as my most controversial pick.  What I really think happens here, is that Sacramento trades up to draft Lonzo Ball.  However, if they don't I think the 76ers take Fox.  Ball is essentially a smaller version of Simmons, and they intend to put the ball in his hands a lot as a distributor next season.  Fox would make more sense for them, as a hound dog defensive point guard that can lock down elite offensive threats, and hit open shots.  He outplayed Ball the last time we saw Ball on the court in March anyway, so there's really no justification needed for this pick.
4. Phoenix Suns - Jayson Tatum F, Duke
   I think Phoenix would prefer Jackson, but with him off the board they grab Tatum, who will provide a scorer with solid moves all over the court that can play and defend either forward position.  He's got some growing to do-both physically and figuratively-to really compete at the next level, but he'll add depth and talent to a Phoenix front line that already features exciting young prospects like Marquese Chriss and last year's fourth overall pick Dragan Bender.
5. Sacramento Kings - Lonzo Ball G, UCLA
   Lavar and Lonzo Ball have been dreaming of the perfect fit in a Lakers uniform for the past 2 decades or so, but ironically I think they land in what's the perfect fit for them right now in Sacramento.  Los Angeles is an old school type of organization.  They might say outwardly that Lavar doesn't bother them, but it's hard for me to believe that.  I think they skip to the podium when Fultz is left for them, realizing they dodge a bullet in the Ball family circus.
   Sacramento however, is the type of organization that would embrace a circus like that.  This is a team that has pondered the ridiculous as part of a thought process to drive ticket sales, to create excitement, and to grow their fan base overall.  I think they look at the Ball family circus and embrace it, salivate at it even.  I think they enable it-they're used to crazy with Cousins, at least Lonzo isn't going to be scary and threatening reporters crazy, just nutty crazy.  Ball falls, but not past 5.
6. Orlando Magic - Jonathan Isaac F, Florida State
   At the start of last season, we saw the Magic fail at trying to move Aaron Gordon to the 3, and while he tried to embrace the role, by the all star break in February, even head coach Frank Vogel had to admit that the experiment had failed, and that Gordon was better suited to play the power forward position.  Enter Jonathan Isaac, an intriguing young prospect who went to college just a few hours north of Orlando, at Florida State.
   Isaac is a player with the height of a PF or C (6-10), but the foot speed that enables him to defend quicker perimeter players, something he showed off regularly in college.  This could make him just the player that the Magic have been looking for, to play the small forward position.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves - Malik Monk G, Kentucky
   Coach Thibodeau loves defense, and Monk is the best perimeter defender in this draft class, still sitting on the board in a deep guard draft.  Thibodeau would love him, and the Timberwolves might need him, as both Wiggins and Lavine will come  up for max deals after the 2018-2019 season.  With both players on the same financial clock, the Timberwolves would be wise to look down the road and set themselves up with depth to either trade one or lose one to free agency.
8. New York Knicks - Frank Ntilikina G, International
   After his antics this past season, and given his reported desire for a huge deal from multiple outlets, I just don't see Rose returning to start at the point for the Knicks next year.  Frank Ntilikina makes an interesting prospect to fill Rose's shoes.  At 6-5 he's both tall and long, and sees the floor extremely well.
   He's a very willing passer, who looks to make those around him better.  That would make him a great fit alongside Kristaps Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony-who despite public comments from Phil Jackson a few months ago, isn't going anywhere until he waives his no trade clause, and hasn't shown any indication or desire to do that.  While some think his reported changed status with his wife may influence his desire to leave New York, I'm not so sure.  He may just dig his heels in just to spite Phil, just because he can.  Ironically it could work out for everyone involved, if Ntilikina can play in the NBA.  A distributor at the helm of the offense is just what Melo and KP need to succeed.
9. Dallas Mavericks - Dennis Smith G, NC State
   At first, I had Dallas looking at Markkanen, out of Arizon with this pick, as a potential Dirk replacement.  Dirk's time in the league is obviously coming to an end sooner rather than later, and they'll have to think about that at some point in time, but right now they need to think about a starting point guard, as their starts at that position last year were pretty much split between Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry.
   Smith makes a nice potential prospect for them at the point, as a guy who filled up the stat sheet in college, averaging over 18 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds per game. during his time at North Carolina State.  He may not be ready to start right away, and he's a bit of a gamble, but he could pay off big time, and owner Mark Cuban does seem to love a good gamble-and have great luck, given his status in life.  Smith could very well come off the board here, and start his career in Dallas.
10. Sacramento Kings - Zach Collins C, Gonzaga
    Collins has been surging up draft boards, and probably with good reason.  The 7 footer not only can score inside and rebound with the best of them in college, but also showed range, shooting 10-21 from three point distance during his one year at Gonzaga.  While he has range, he also seems to have good shot selection, taking 70% of his shots from inside.  Sacramento could use him at either the 4 or the 5, and would do well to draft him  here.
11. Charlotte Hornets - Harry Giles F/C, Duke
    I wanted to put former Tarheel Justin Jackson here, given Jordan's close relationship with the championship team ("the ceiling is the roof") but for Jackson, the ceiling might be the 12th pick in the draft, because I think MJ and his front office take Harry Giles here.
    Giles just seems like such a Jordan pick to me.  He battled injuries through college, and was never able to show off as the highly touted prospect he came into Duke rated to be.  As such, he's fallen off a bit for many.  However, word is that Giles has impressed in workouts, looking "better than he ever looked at Duke", leading some to speculate about whether or not he falls and how far if he does.  Healthy, he could be a top 5 of a draft talent, but if injury issues nag him, the pick could be a bust.
    As far as skill set, Giles fits in Charlotte alongside Kaminsky in the front court, who brings range, while Giles brings an interior game.  If Jordan picks him, it might doom him though.  OR it could vindicate MJ as an owner/front office type someday down the road.  That's the nature of gambles, and well, we all know how MJ feels about gambling don't we?  He's the type who always wants to have one up on everyone else, and always thinks he does.  He's also brought in several Duke players over the last 24 months, leading me to believe Giles would be a natural fit culture wise.  Only time will tell, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Giles come off the board here and play at least his first few years in North Carolina.
12. Detroit Pistons - Lauri Markkanen F, Arizona
    Drummond is the type of player that dominates the interior of the basketball court, while Markkanen is the best stretch four in this draft.  The Pistons really get lucky with him falling to them here, and SVG shouldn't waste any time getting to the podium to make the announcement.  Markkanen would be a perfect fit on the roster, would help open up the floor, and could potentially start right away, or at least play significant minutes right away.
13. Denver Nuggets - Justin Jackson G/F, North Carolina
    Denver's one biggest need is to improve it's defense-they ranked 27th in the league in ppg allowed last year, and 29th in opponent field goal percentage allowed.  Justin Jackson is a "3 and D" guy who can play the 2 or the 3, and could maybe even guard a few 4's in the NBA.  He's a strong defender on the perimeter, who brings championship pedigree, coming fresh off North Carolina's championship team.  This sort of thing can help bring a winning attitude to a team, can help change the atmosphere, and thus, the confidence of a team, which impacts results on the floor.  Look for Jackson to go by here if not before, and make an impact on his team, even if he's not scoring 20 a game.
14. Miami Heat - T.J. Leaf F, UCLA
    Miami is finally able to release Chris Bosh, and they haven't found a real good stretch four since he left.  Leaf could potentially fill those shoes.  He almost reminds me of Kevin Love, both coming out of UCLA, and both good three point shooters who can rebound the ball.  He might not be as good as Love-but he also might be better someday.  Or anything in between.  The Heat could use him right away, and fill a need by drafting him here.
15. Portland Trailblazers - John Collins F/C, Wake Forest
    Slated to foot the bill of the league's highest payroll next season at this point in time, with $137 million committed to their current roster, and with three picks in the first round but 15th being the highest, the Blazers are really limited on the movements they can make this off-season, making this pick their best opportunity to improve their team in the short term.  Collins does this, giving them a guy who can immediately contribute offensively and on the boards, after averaging essentially 28 and 15 in college.
16. Chicago Bulls - Jawun Evans G, Oklahoma State
    The Bulls found the value of a true point guard when Rondo went down in the playoffs.  At this point in the draft, despite it's depth at the position, 5 point guards have already been drafted, leaving Evans as the best on the board.  Chicago can grab him up and put him in the mix in their back court.
    **I think Chicago is best suited at this point, to trade Butler, preferably for a high pick in this draft.  I could see a team like Philly approaching Chicago with an offer of the third overall, Okafor, and maybe even the Lakers' pick next year as well, and Chicago biting on the offer.  I don't like projecting trades into mock drafts, but I thought this was worth mentioning here.**
17. Milwaukee Bucks - Jarrett Allen C, Texas
    Giannis, Thon Maker, the Bucks as of late have shown an interest in taking young project type players, who have shown the potential to dominate down the line.  Allen would fit that mold, and if Thon doesn't work out, maybe Allen does.  Or maybe they both do and you trade one down the line.  The Bucks seem to be interested in development, and Allen is one of the most interesting young prospects in this class, with what some consider to be perhaps the highest ceiling.
18. Indiana Pacers - Justin Patton F/C, Creighton
    Patton grew up near Creighton (in Nebraska) and has always been a small town type of guy, I think Indiana is a team that likes that in their picks, meaning they're more likely to stick around down the line.  Patton is a legit 7 footer that can really get up and down the court.  He's an offensive threat who pops well on the pick and roll, and makes a high percentage of the shots he takes.  He doesn't take bad shots, but also lacks aggression around the rim and has shown some hesitation in shooting from deeper range.  His rebounding is also suspect, but he could still potentially grow into a great young big man alongside Myles Turner, and give the Pacers two good young players to rebuild around if Paul George leaves.
    
    **Again, note.  I think the most likely thing that happens with this pick, is that the Pacers trade it.  The latest reports have them trying to go all in to show Paul George that they want to and are serious about becoming contenders around him down the road.  Therefore, they need players that will produce next year, not down the road, like a draft pick would.
    One place I might look is Detroit, where they could target Reggie Jackson, a player SVG is on the outs with.  The Pistons could use the pick to rebuild, and want to get rid of Jackson, and the Pacers might want to add the talent to the roster.
    Another candidate might be Portland, who will likely be looking to shed salary as much as possible.  If it were Portland that the Pacers called, I'd target Miles Leonard.  He's a good stretch four type player on a reasonable contract for the next several seasons.  He'd fit well alongside Drummond, and would be expendable to the Trailblazers at this point based  upon this mock draft scenario.**
19. Atlanta Hawks - Luke Kennard G/F, Duke
    I see in Luke Kennard something of a shorter Kyle Korver-a player the Hawks traded away last year much to the dismay of their fan base and the players on their roster.  Kennard would give them a player with range almost to match Korver's, and also much like Korver, good height for the shooting guard position, and suspect defensive abilities.  I think he'd be a natural fit in Atlanta, and if he's still there when they pick they'd be wise to select him.
20. Portland Trailblazers - Tyler Lydon F/C, Syracue
    The Blazers only real option to add to their team this year is through the draft, and they'll be committed to do so with at least their first two picks.  Lydon gives them a fairly well developed player who can play either forward position, has very reliable range, converting 40% of his three point attempts in college, and has the size to guard bigger power forwards even, standing at about 6 foot 10.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder - O.G. Anunoby F, Indiana
    Anunoby falls in this mock draft for two reasons, with the most obvious being the injury late last season.  The second being that he doesn't quite measure up as tall as some thought he was, measuring 6 foot 6, while some analysts had him at 6-8 before this.  That can often chip away at your draft stock quietly.
    In Anunoby-provided he remains healthy-the Thunder get a lockdown defender who can guard the other team's scoring wing player, potentially taking some pressure off a guy like Westbrook on that side of the court.  The big question will be whether or not Anunoby has reliable NBA three point range (37% in college) and whether or not his jump shot can be reliable overall.  If it can (and given the small sample at the college level it's honestly hard to predict at this point) then he'll earn a lot of minutes and be successful. If not, he still may stick around in the league-defensive guys tend to do that sometimes-but he'll have a tough time staying on the court for extended periods of time if he's not an offensive threat.
22. Brooklyn Nets - Caleb Swanigan F, Purdue
    With a center like Brook Lopez, that often likes to play from the perimeter, and isn't exactly known as a tenacious rebounder, the Nets need a power forward that can clean the glass.  Insert Swanigan, who averaged 15 boards per forty minutes in college, and while he stands about 6-9, possesses a 7-4 wingspan and has a standing reach of 9-1.  He could be a perfect fit alongside Lopez, cleaning up the glass and threatening the defense with his interior scoring.
23. Toronto Raptors - Isaiah Hartenstein F/C, Germany
    Fans might look at Hartenstein and understandably draw comparisons to Kristaps Porzingis, but they'd be way off the mark.  While both are tall thin white guys from roughly the same geographical region in the world, Hartenstein's game differes from that of Porzingis about as much as it could.  Hartenstein prefers operating in the paint, and doesn't seem to possess a real outside shot.  He's a good rebounder (14 per 40 minutes) and a tough player, who can contribute in the league and should go in the first round.
24. Utah Jazz - Ivan Rabb F/C, California
    Around this time last year, Rabb was being talked about as a likely lottery pick if he stayed in the draft.  This year, the Jazz will snatch him up at 24 and be happy with the fallen talent, whose stock suffered seriously from a down year at Cal.
25. Orlando Magic - Terrance Ferguson G/F, Australia
    Ferguson made the rare decision to forego the NCAA and spend his year after high school playing professional basketball in Australia, where he's been unimpressive to say the least.  As a result, a player who was once thought of as a lottery talent, falls to the Magic at 25.
26. Portland Trailblazers - Rodions Kurucs F, Barcelona
    At this point in the draft, the Blazers have drafted at least 2 rookies already and aren't trying to fill spots on this year's roster any longer.  Kurucs is a stash overseas pick, who will continue to develop in Spain while they work to open up a roster spot for him, or wait to develop a need.
27. Brooklyn Nets - Anzejs Pasecniks F/C, Latvia
    In Pasecniks, some draft analysts see a shadow of Kristaps Porzingis, which probably comes partially from Pasecniks' experience playing alongside the budding NBA star during their days in Europe.  Both received similar attention and interest from scouts several years ago when they first caught the eye of the NBA, but Porzingis has developed more along the way than Anzejs.  The Nets may see their opportunity to build their own Porzingis across town from the original, and perhaps even a friendly in city/country of origin rivalry long term?  Who knows, but Pasecniks makes a lot of sense here, especially if they plan on trading starting center Brook Lopez, something many around the league have speculated might be in their plans.
28. LA Lakers - Ike Anigbogu C, UCLA
    This is a long term, down the road kind of pick.  Anigbogu has great size (6-10, 250) and enough athleticism to excite NBA GM's and coaches alike.  It'll take a few years for this 18 year old to develop, but he could be a force in the league for many years to come with the right tutelage.
29. San Antonio Spurs - Josh Hart G, Villanova
    Josh Hart was a four year player at Villanova under head coach Jay Wright.  He's a system guy, he fully buys in, he dedicates himself, and he succeeds.  That's the kind of guy a coach like Pop likes.  The kind that wants to be a cog in the system, that's the kind he can work with also.  I think Hart makes a great fit in San Antonio.
30. Utah Jazz - Frank Jackson G, Duke
    Jackson is "Mr Utah" to the point that his father is Utah state senator Al Jackson.  He's also a solid scorer from Duke, who could fit into the Utah system, and provide them with scoring off the  bench at the 2 and 3.

NBA: 5 Trade Targets for the Boston Celtics Not Named Jimmy or Paul...

Can Celtics GM Danny Ainge convert his ability to stockpile

assets into a true superstar that will push the Celtics to the next

level?  Nobody knows what his plans are, but he's promised big

changes to the roster for the opening of next season.

I've been hearing trade rumors swirling around the Boston Celtics for what seems like years, and 99% of them seem to center around the same two names; Paul George and Jimmy Butler.  This past weekend, I started seeing posts circulate asking Celtics fans about targeting Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans as a trade target, which was recently a suggestion of A. Sherrod Blakely, of CSNNE,  now the proud owner of not only what is certainly the douchiest name in Boston sports coverage, but now perhaps also the most ridiculous trade suggestion in recent local sports memory.  Given this desperate attempt at generating views for himself out of Blakely, I figured I'd give Celtics fans 5 more realistic potential trade targets for the C's this summer NOT named Paul George or Jimmy Butler.  Here you go:

1) Klay Thompson G/F, Golden State Warriors
If the Warriors win a second ring this June, there are some who think Klay might want to be the star of his own team, instead of the fourth option in Golden State again, and why not?  Instead of moving up in the pecking order, with the acquisition of Kevin Durant he's actually moved down, and despite the success on the court it's got to be frustrating.  Most professional athletes feel they're just as good as anybody else, and it's got to bother Klay that he's not the first or second option, and some nights not even the third.
In Boston, he'd be the first option.  He'd put up 25 points per night, he'd lead a big city team deep into the playoffs every year, he'd have epic battles against one of the best players ever in the conference finals every year and eventually he'd likely be the one to knock Lebron off the top of the mountain, or he'd at least have a great chance to be.  He'd be complimented by great young talent around him, and a solid organization that knows how to build a team, how to treat their players, and how to find championship success.
If I were Danny Ainge, he would be my first target.  I'd give up as much as Crowder, Bradley, and next year's Nets pick if I could get him for that.  It would make sense for Golden State also, as they're going to need to start saving some money fast on payroll if they don't want to start setting records there-and what owner does?  Crowder has one of the most team friendly contracts in the league, and Bradley is under contract at a reasonable rate for one more year, which would get them through to potentially drafting Luka Doncic in next year's top three.  It'd be an offer worth consideration at very least for both sides.

2) Andre Drummond C, Detroit Pistons
Until I started really thinking about the possibility of getting Thompson, Drummond was my preferred target for the C's.  He solves all of their immediate problems: lack of rebounding, lack of interior presence, and desire for youth that you know can succeed in the NBA.  He can.  He might not be a great free throw shooter, but he would average almost 20 boards a game in Boston, and at 6-11, 260 is 40 pounds heavier than any big man the Celtics currently have on the roster, giving them a bigger body at the rim to stop the charging freight train that is Lebron James during those late playoff battles in the years to come between the two franchises.
I've heard Drummond and SVG are on the outs, and SVG has had issues in the past, connecting to young big men.  I think he could be had, and since it's not often that 23 year old big men who you KNOW can be great in the NBA are on the market for lower than what their market value should be, you pull that trigger if you can.  I think Detroit would have to throw in the #12 overall pick this year, but then I think you start with offering the 2018 Nets pick along with maybe a 2019 pick (I'm thinking Clippers') and maybe toss in a player for right now like Zeller.  Then use that 12th pick to go grab a stretch four in the draft, there are a few decent ones that should be on the board like Lauri Markkanen, Ivan Rabb, or one of the Collins big men.  In this scenario you either keep this year's Brooklyn pick or next, so either way Boston is stocked with young talent.  OR they keep the ammunition to pursue another trade.  You'll notice that they could conceivably trade for both Klay AND Drummond if the offers I outlined here worked out, with a Nets pick going to both teams, and players going to Golden State for Klay.  Imagine a Boston starting lineup next season of IT-Klay-Brown-Horford-Drummond with Smart, maybe Green, maybe Amir if you can bring him back cheap, and a few other guys coming off the bench.  I think Celtic fans could get excited about it.

3) DeAndre Jordan C, Los Angeles Lakers
Jordan is another guy who like Drummond, solves all the Celtics' current basketball problems.  I'm not even sure you'd have to include a Nets' pick with the offer, maybe you could get by with the Celtics' pick next season, one or both of the Memphis and LA Clippers' 2019 picks, and say Zeller for him at this point?  Maybe the Clippers throw in some more of their own and get a Nets pick back?  They need to blow things up over there, they just need someone to give them a reason to.  Getting that Fultz pick would be HUGE in that it would allow them to let CP3 walk, they'd trade away DJ, and have more than enough cap space to resign Blake and bring in a few other pieces around him and Fultz to stay contending.
From the Celtics' side, it makes sense if you can get Jordan on the relative cheap.  I really don't want to see a Nets pick go for Jordan.  The difference between he and Drummond being about 5 years age difference, you just have more potential life in Drummond's career.  Plus the Pistons have the 12th overall to throw in, the Clippers don't have any valuable trade assets really.  It's actually almost kind of sad looking for something they could throw into the deal.  For that reason, I don't think this one happens, but I think Jordan is a guy you at least call about, maybe a third team can help make things work?

4) DeMar DeRozan SG, Toronto Raptors
I know DeRozan has said he loves Toronto, wants to stay there, takes pride in what they've built, etc.  I just wonder if that all changes if Lowry leaves and he starts looking around and feeling very lonely?  On foreign soil, surrounded by foreign players, with his backcourt partner of the past 5 seasons gone and the team potentially moving in the wrong direction, does he start seeing greener pastures elsewhere really fast?  Even before returning to Toronto?  The Celtics could dangle that 2018 Nets' pick for DeRozan and feel relatively good about what they'd get back.  A top tier two guard at the beginning of his prime, with room for growth who wants to win.  He's got the size (6-7, 221), and the skills to lead a team deep into the playoffs, and could be a great scorer alongside IT in the backcourt in Boston.  I'm not sure this could happen, but it's an interesting thought, and would depend heavily on what happens with Kyle Lowry.

5) LaMarcus Aldridge PF, San Antonio Spurs
It's become something of the worst kept secret in the league that the Spurs would love to be rid of their biggest mistake in recent memory.  Since signing with San Antonio, Aldridge's career has languished.  He's been a poor fit overall, with his ppg dipping below 20 for the first time since 2010, and his rebounds per game falling below double digits when he'd posted numbers of 11.1 and 10.2 in his final two years with the Trailblazers.
Part of the poor fit is Kawhi Leonard's unexpected explosive development as a superstar, forcing the Spurs to center the offense more around him and his developing game-which fits better into where the league is going than a faceup 4 like Aldridge does-and move away from an offensive gameplan centered around Aldridge.  Aldridge would fit well alongside Horford, giving the Celtics two players who can score, see the floor well, and are a threat with the ball in their hands.  And his cost would have to be relatively cheap, the Spurs would likely love to dump him off to anyone that would take him at whatever they could get back at this point, and it would really open them up for their rumored pursuit of Chris Paul this summer, who most would assume would love to go ring chase under Pop's system.

There are a great many options for the Celtics this upcoming summer, and the roster WILL look VERY different on opening day next season if they're successful in this off-season.  I'm not going to beg for your "clicks" and views by making ridiculous suggestions like the Celtics could end up with Anthony Davis next season, but I will bring you realistic, logical potential trade targets that the team should at least think about, and that fans might want to marinate on, just in case any of these scenarios come to fruition, and we see any of the above players in green next year.

Stay tuned as I'll be posting my NBA Mock Draft in the next few days!

Could the Lakers Pass on Lonzo Ball?

With the Ball family circus haven taken center stage when it comes to NBA draft talk over the past few months, everyone seems resigned to the idea that Lonzo Ball will in fact be a Laker next year, because Lavar says he will.  Well, simply put; I’m not so sure.  I’ve put together a list of 5 scenarios under which Lonzo Ball does not become a Laker this summer (or perhaps ever) regardless of his father’s wishes.  Here they are:

                                                                                    1)      Boston doesn’t draft Fultz
     

      The most likely scenario under which LA doesn’t draft Lonzo Ball in my opinion, is that the Celtics don’t draft Fultz.  Boston doesn’t need a point guard, what they do need is a versatile forward/wing player who can defend, has range, and can contribute elsewhere such as rebounding, etc.  Josh Jackson would give them all of that.  This writer for one, doesn’t see Fultz as any kind of lock as the number one pick.  I think Jackson makes A LOT more sense for them.  This creates scenario one in which Ball falls past the Lakers: because they draft Fultz, who many see as a young Westbrook type player.

      2)      The Lakers trade their pick for an established player
      Los Angeles has never been a team that really believed in building through the draft.  Magic being the one exception, they’ve typically traded for established players, sometimes trading those very picks away in the process.  This summer, many believe Paul George of the Pacers, and Jimmy Butler of the Bulls to be on the trade market, and it may just be too much for new President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson and GM Rob Pilenka to resist, they just might have to pull the trigger on one of those trades.  That would eliminate them from the Lonzo Ball sweepstakes, as they’d no longer have a lottery pick.

      3)      The Lakers like Fox better
Most consider Ball and Fultz to be the top two picks in the draft, and the best two players, but I’m not sure I’d call it a consensus.  It’s a well known fact that De’Aaron Fox outplayed Lonzo Ball in the NCAA tournament this past March, and is considered a better defender than Ball overall.  The Lakers may just decide to go with the better defensive, proven clutch performer in Fox over Ball, who some view to have collapsed a bit when the pressure was on in March.  So option three, the Lakers pick someone who isn’t Ball OR Fultz.

      4)      The Lakers draft a forward
The Lakers are another team like Boston, that despite the desire to mock a point guard to them, and despite the obvious talent at the position in this particular draft class, they kind of don’t need a point guard.  Let’s not forget, they spent the second overall pick on DeAngelo Russell two years ago.  Back then, everyone thought they needed a big man and would take Okafor, they threw us all for a loop and took Russell.  This time, maybe they do the opposite, and surprise us all by taking a forward to play alongside Julius Randle in the front court, a scorer like Jayson Tatum, or even Josh Jackson, who I mentioned earlier as a versatile wing with range and good defense.

      5)      The Lakers trade back for depth
Finally, the least likely option I see for a scenario under which Lonzo Ball does not become a Laker: they trade back in the draft for depth.  Again, I don’t see this as a likely option.  However, a team that lost as many games as the Lakers do, and is losing their first round pick to Philly next year, could always use two top ten draft picks in a deep draft couldn’t they?  Many might consider that the smart move in fact.  The Kings have the 5^th and 10^th picks, and perhaps they could be persuaded to deal for the 2^nd overall pick.  I think their owner could be one who buys into the Ball family circus hook, line, and sinker, he just strikes me as the type.  And Magic and Vlade obviously have some history/know each other.  I’m sure they could work together.  In such a scenario, the Lakers could then pick up two lottery picks in what many consider to be the best draft in years.  That’d be a pretty good way to start off the Magic Johnson era.  And almost everyone knows when it comes to drafting, taking multiple bites at the apple is the tried and true method.  Not usually taking the first overall pick.  Basketball can be different, but in a draft class like this…the depth is pretty tempting.