NFL DFS Week 7 "Effective Touch" Leaders

As we all know, daily fantasy is all about opportunity.  Who's getting the most touches and targets, who's throwing the most or projected to throw the most, etc.  But one thing we fail to take into account sometimes, is effectiveness when you're getting those touches and targets.  Today, I'm bringing you some analysis on some of the effective touch leaders on my list.  These are running backs who get carries and targeted often-get the most opportunities-and make the most of that opportunity.  These guys pick up the most yards per opportunity, and get the most opportunities as well.  The players included on this list won't surprise as many as the players excluded from this list.  Exclusion from this list even if you're getting a lot of opportunity, indicates you're not performing up to a set standard (5 yards per opportunity) and can indicate overuse, or inflated value.

Devonta Freeman

The fact that Devonta Freeman is leading this list shouldn't surprise anyone.  He's widely known to be one of-if not THE-most productive backs in the league at this point, from a yards, touchdowns, or touches standpoint.  He gets carries and targets, a high percentage of his team's red zone runs, and his price on Draft Kings from week to week hasn't quite peaked to match his production yet at $7900, making him a value pick up until this week.  The question is whether or not he'll keep that production up through the season, and given his health I don't see why not, the Shanahan system tends to produce running backs that pile up yardage.  If the return of Tevin Coleman doesn't cut into his 24.5 opportunities per game too much, Freeman should continue putting up the 5.45 yards per touch he's been getting thus far.

Chris Ivory
Ivory is second on my list due primarily to the number of carries he gets, as he's not a player that hauls in too many catches (6 receptions on 8 targets through 5 games).  He does however, get the bulk of red zone touches on his team (64% in the red zone) and that percentage only climbs the closer you get to the end zone itself, going up to 84 and then 89 percent inside the ten and five yard lines, respectively.  This has lead to 4 touchdowns this season, all of them from runs starting in the red zone.  He's third in rushing attempts per game behind Matt Forte and Le'Veon Bell (both conspicuously absent from this list thus far) at nearly 21 per game, and when you factor in his ridiculous 5.74 yards per opportunity rate, you can see why he's second on this list, gaining on average nearly 131 yards per game off his 23 opportunities.

Le'Veon Bell

Bell has been noticeably absent from this list so far, primarily due to his over-usage this season-a direct result of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.  This usage has resulted in Bell carrying the ball 21.5 times per game, and getting targeted 5 times a game in the passing game as well, leaving him leading the league in opportunities by almost 2 per game: 26.5 to Freeman's 24.53.  The fact that defenses have been able to focus almost entirely on Bell however, has limited his production per opportunity to just 4.69 yards per, which ultimately pushed him down this list to third amongst those eligible for my list, at 124.25 yards of production per game.  I think the coming return of "Big Ben" will be good for Bell's production per opportunity, and while it may eat into the overall opportunities, his total isn't likely to suffer.

Todd Gurley
The rookie didn't take long to make his impact on the league, putting up back to back games in weeks 4 and 5 in the 150 rushing yard range, and sky-rocketing his value up this particular list in the process.  His 19.3 opportunities per game isn't staggering, but his 5.76 yards per opportunity puts him right up there with the best.  His carries have gone from 6 to 19 to 30 in his first three games, and I expect his usage to plateau about 25 carries per game, with a target thrown in every once in a while.  If he continues to produce at the rate he has been, he could easily find the top of this list before too long, as 25 opportunities per game at his current rate would push his overall score up this scale from the 111.14 it currently stands at to nearly 144!  Buy this guy every week you can, especially while his price remains below the level of other elite backs on this list like Bell or Freeman.

Adrian Peterson
Old reliable, Adrian Peterson has been doing it for the longest of any of the backs on this list and he just won't quit.  While he hasn't yet had any of those jaw-dropping "All Day" type games this season, he has consistently been producing when given the opportunity, and he's getting plenty of opportunities.  Now, at 4.6 yards per opportunity, he barely cleared my bar of 4.5 to qualify for the list, but his 22.6 opportunities per game built around 20 carries a game was enough to put him over 100 yards of production per game and make him 5th on this list.

Notable "Snubs"
Matt Forte
Forte is the most recognizable and surprising name not on this list, given his staggering workload of 26.3 opportunities per game.  Unfortunately, I fear the Bears may be riding him a bit too much here, driving his production per opportunity down to 4.42 yards per; just under the 4.5 per bar set for inclusion on this list.  I think if you're not producing per opportunity, forcing the opportunities is a warning sign that you're riding a guy too hard, and he's getting too much punishment.  It's a recipe for failure, and potentially injury.
Justin Forsett
Forsett is another name I thought would be on this list when I started thinking about writing this article.  Then I sat down and looked at my databases, and was surprised to discover he wasn't.  While he's heavily involved in the passing game at 5.3 targets per game, he has two teammates that cut into his carries, leaving him just over 17 attempts per game.  Multiply by a rather weak production of about 4.3 yards per opportunity, and he doesn't quite crack 100 a game, leaving him off my top 5 effective touch leaders list.
Doug Martin
Martin didn't quite make this list, as his production this season is just starting to pile up.  If he continues at the rate he's been running the past two games this weekend when he returns to action, I expect him to bring his current 99.8 rating well up over 100 in the very near future, vaulting him into the top 5 by the next time I bring you this list perhaps.