Week 7 Trap Play-Temper Your Expectations This Week

I've been thinking, I'm going to make this "Trap Play" a weekly feature.  I'll write it mid-week, warning readers a popular play, or typically strong play to steer clear of that week, and why.  We'll also go over my prior week warning, and how that worked out.  First off, to review the past two weeks' advice:

Two weeks ago, I told owners to steer clear of Julio Jones for the week.  He was just going to cost a lot, and was probably going to be owned in a high percentage of leagues that week.  In the Draft Kings leagues I was in, he was on between 15-20% of teams.  That week (against the Redskins) he caught just 5 passes on 10 targets for 67 yards and no touchdowns for 11.7 points in Draft Kings leagues.

Last week, I told people to stay away from Andy Dalton and AJ Green, that they were in a "trap" matchup vs. the Bills, whose defense was underrated.  Dalton went to Buffalo and threw 22 of 33 for 243 yards, but 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, which saved his day from total disaster, giving him 21.52 points in Draft Kings leagues.  That probably still disappointed the 20-25% of owners in Draft Kings leagues that owned him.  AJ Green caught just 4 passes on 7 targets for 36 yards and no touchdowns for 7.6 total points in Draft Kings leagues.

This week, I'm telling people to watch out for the Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald stack.  It's a juicy looking match up that I expect analysts and experts to pump up all week, so they'll be a high percentage owned pair, probably 20+% in Draft Kings leagues.  However, I think it could be a trap game, and here's why:

The Cardinals have been on a tear this year through the air, reigniting Larry Fitzgerald's career, and exciting fantasy owners everywhere.  But, there have been two games in which their offense has deeply disappointed fantasy owners: two blowout wins, one over Detroit and one over Chicago.  Only once has the passing offense in Arizona put the pedal to the metal, and destroyed the defense from start to finish; against the 49ers, an in division rival.  Baltimore is not that.  Baltimore is a team the Cardinals should beat pretty easily, and when Palmer has the chance to beat a team easily, he does so.

In Detroit, the running game carried the Cardinals to the win, and Palmer was happy to sit back and let them do so, throwing the ball just 14 times for 161 yards-although with 3 touchdowns for a low 20's fantasy point total.  Not quite what you expected in the dome at Detroit vs. a porous lions pass defense.

In Chicago, the defense and special teams won the game for the Cardinals, and again, Palmer was happy to let them do so, throwing it just 24 times for 185 yards.  Granted, he threw for 4 touchdowns-again, saving his day for fantasy owners-but his fantasy total was a bit underwhelming, considering what you might have expected going into the game.

Now, in those two blowout wins, Larry Fitzgerald has caught 4 of his 6 touchdowns, so I'd definitely advise using him as a compliment in lineups you've got $7,000 in Draft Kings to spare, and I'm not saying they'll have a bad day, I just wouldn't be shocked if they had an underwhelming day-particularly Carson Palmer-and I don't expect the teams winning GPP's to be playing a Palmer-Fitzgerald stack.

They may be a solid play for cash games though, you can probably pencil both in for 20 points each.  Just don't expect the kind of blowout game you'd get if they were in a closer contest, and Carson was throwing it 40-50 times like he did against the Rams and Steelers, putting up 300+ yard games both times.