NFL DFS: Week 7 High Value Targets

As with the running back list the day before yesterday, targets mean nothing if you're not converting them into catches, yards, a ultimately touchdowns.  Sometimes a receiver can be getting targeted a lot and simply not catching them (Jordan Matthews this year for instance).  Other times a receiver is producing a great deal under the radar, and needs to be high-lighted for it.  Here's a list of 5 high value targets so far this season.  Guys that turn targets into points.  THOSE are the guys you need.  Now, to be clear, these are not necessarily the 5 best, in 1-5 order.  They are all top ten however, and lesser than household name type receivers.  Here we go!

Willie Snead WR New Orleans Saints

Willie Snead is a guy whose name you've probably heard on ESPN or NFL Network over the past few weeks.  He's quickly become the favorite target of future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees, and has turned those opportunities into yards more often than not, so he headlines this list.  He's currently averaging just over 6 targets a game and reeling in 68.4% of them for an average of almost 17 yards per catch (11.47 per target).  That's the highest per target average of the guys who caught enough balls to qualify for my list (30) this season and it's for a reason: YAC.  This guy piles up the yards after catch, averaging 6.23 per catch.  He makes a great, productive, and cheap option in Draft Kings leagues.

Rishard Matthews WR Miami Dolphins
Matthews is the lesser known receiver targeted behind Jarvis Landry in Miami, and while his fame and role on the depth chart may be behind Landry, his production has certainly been much better than that of his more well known teammate.  He's averaging just over 6 targets per game, and catching 71.8% of them, for the second best percentage among wide receivers on this list.  When he catches these passes, he turns them into yards, averaging 15.8 yards per reception (11.34 per target) and with 3 touchdown catches on the season.  The Dolphins play the Texans this weekend, and I expect Matthews to exploit the secondary, fill your roster out with him this weekend.

John Brown WR Arizona Cardinals
John Brown is the most targeted player that appears on this list, with 45 targets over 6 games for 7.5 a game.  He's also got the highest catch percentage of any player on this list, pulling in 73.3 percent of those targets for 15.1 yards per catch (or 11.04 per target).  Brown is the closest player to exceeding all goals I set for players to make this list: 75% catch rate, 15 yards per reception, 10 per target.  His 73.3% catch rate leaves him just short of perfection, but he's still appearing at third on this list, so it's not all bad news for him or his owners.  Pick him up this weekend against a poor Detroit secondary inside a dome with a red hot Carson Palmer throwing to him and you could reap the rewards.

Allen Hurns WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Hurns is the sidekick to lead Jaguar receiver Allen Robinson, or one half of the Jags' two Allens.  While he's technically the second option, he's turned it into being the lead producer in that unit.  In 6 games he's been targeted 43 times, and hauled in 29 of those at 15.9 yards per catch.  That includes 4 touchdowns and half a dozen plays of over 20 yards!  His 15.9 per reception and 67.4% catch rate h as him averaging 10.69 per target, a pretty productive receiver.  If he continues being targeted 7 times per game, and catching about 5 of those, that's a minimum of 10.5 fantasy points per game in full ppr leagues.  Add in the likelihood of a touchdown (66% chance) and you're talking a floor of 16.5 points-not bad for a second option.  The Jags are also facing the Bills this week, whose lead CB Stephon Gilmore has held the opposing teams' lead receiver under 100 yards including the likes of Julian Edelman and AJ Green this season.  Sounds like a recipe for that second option to produce like a first option again.

Tight Ends Travis Kelce and Gary Barnidge

I had to throw some non wide-outs on this list, so here's the top pair of tight ends, producing when targeted on the field.  Kelce has been targeted 39 times for the Chiefs, picking up 416 yards through the air with 2 touchdowns.  He's pulled in 74.3% of his targets for best on this list, and averaging 14.3 yards per reception-for 10.6 per target.  Barnidge, has been targeted 40 times and caught 27 of them for 413 yards (really close numbers, right?) and 5 touchdowns over the course of 6 games.  If he continues being targeted about 7 times per game and catching about 5 of them, as well as a touchdown each game as his current rate stands, his floor stands at about 16 points per game, pretty solid for any receiver, let alone a tight end.

Danny Woodhead RB San Diego Chargers
I couldn't not put Woodhead on this list because his YAC is just off the charts, and he's the most productive target at the running back position by a mile (well, 2.5 yards per target, but still that's a lot here).  Woodhead has been targeted 34 times this season, and caught for 332 yards.  What really pumps his position on this list up though, is his YAC, as I previously mentioned.  It's ridiculous, at 11.3 yards per catch!  That's a first down AFTER the reception every time he catches the ball.  It also translates to 8.64 of his total 9.76 yards per target after the catch, meaning a whopping 88.5% of his yards come after the catch.  In PPR leagues, this makes Woodhead a fairly valuable add, especially if you're looking to plug some value buys in DFS leagues.

A few big names who aren't mentioned here but qualify based upon my constraints: Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green.  Thanks for the read, and good luck!

Week 7 Value Stacks

With Rodgers and the Packers on a bye week and the Patriots playing a very tough in division rival known for their defense, owners can be scrambling a bit to find a good stack to build around.  Here are three value stacks you can pick up this week for less money than you're used to spending on guys like Rodgers and Brady.  Good luck!

Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins $13,900 total cost

This is not the farthest reach, given the wild success of Hopkins this season, and his current status as the top fantasy receiver in the NFL right now.  However, a lot of people are missing out on the other half of the stack, as Hoyer is a part time starter this season and just not a big name.  Owners that haven't been picking him up however, have missed out the past two weeks on 48-67 for 605 yards, 5 TD's, and just one interception.  Hoyer can bring some returns, and has thrown for about half a dozen 300 yard games in his career.  I see no reason Sunday against a middle of the pack Dolphins pass defense shouldn't be another one.

Blake Bortles and Allen Hurns $10,700 total cost
While a lot of owners are hearing a lot about Blake Bortles these days, after his two consecutive 300+ yard passing games, but many of those owners might be making the mistake of stacking him with lead receiver Allen Robinson this weekend, instead of Allen Hurns, the receiver from the Jaguars that they should be stacking him with.    Not that Robinson isn't any good, but this week the Jaguars face the Bills, and Stephon Gilmore has been shutting down number one receivers this season in a string of sub 100 yard games surrendered including the likes of Julian Edelman and AJ Green just last week.  I'd expect Hurns to turn this into a big game for him, as Robinson ends up used more like a distraction and Bortles compensates with targets to the other side of the field.

Landry Jones and Martavis Bryant $9,800 total cost

The Steelers are preparing right now as if Landry Jones is starting this weekend, and so am I.  And as such, I'm LOVING him at a $5100 cost and likely less than 5% ownership rate.  Pair him with the big play making ability of Martavis Bryant, and you're looking at a lottery ticket type of buy that just could lead you and your team to the promised land this weekend.  At under a $10,000 combined cost, buy a defense for around $3,000 and you're left with about $37,000 to fill 6 spots with.  Easy to plug and play stars around these two with that kind of money, especially if you go with a cheap tight end and find yourself splitting $33,000 between 5 spots instead.

Good luck everyone!

NFL DFS Strategy Sessions: Double-Stacking

So some of my readers are beginner DFS players, so I'd like to start a series for you, to give you some guidelines by which to build your rosters, and even just to look at players overall, to rate them as far as Draft Kings is concerned primarily, but I expect my guides and ranks to be helpful to fantasy owners in all leagues.  In this edition, we'll tackle double-stacking.

Double-stacking is a fairly simple concept that builds off stacking.  Basically, I want to stack two plays together.  Remembering back to my basic stacking piece, there are three combos you can stack: QB and WR, QB and TE, and RB and DEF.  With double stacking-as the name would imply-you're pairing two of these combos together.  So obviously you have to choose a RB/DEF stack, and then you're choosing a QB and his favorite WR or TE.

Now you'll build the rest of your lineup around these two combinations.  It leaves you a RB, three WR, and a TE or FLEX spot to fill.  How you fill those spots often depends on the stacks you picked.

Often, I'll go with a cheap QB play, especially in GPP lineups.  Give me Brian Hoyer, or Blake Bortles with one of their top receiving options and I'll plug high dollar (and high value) stars around them.  Add a running back and defense combo you expect to play well together and you're setting yourself up for victory.  This week for instance, I'm advising people to play Brian Hoyer/DeAndre Hopkins in a stack for a combined cost of 13,700.  Add in Todd Gurley at $5,000 and the Rams defense at $2,400 for a total of 21,100 between the four.  That leaves you almost $30,000 to fill 5 spots, an easy task at about $6,000 per slot.  That's how you double-stack.

NFL DFS Week 7 "Effective Touch" Leaders

As we all know, daily fantasy is all about opportunity.  Who's getting the most touches and targets, who's throwing the most or projected to throw the most, etc.  But one thing we fail to take into account sometimes, is effectiveness when you're getting those touches and targets.  Today, I'm bringing you some analysis on some of the effective touch leaders on my list.  These are running backs who get carries and targeted often-get the most opportunities-and make the most of that opportunity.  These guys pick up the most yards per opportunity, and get the most opportunities as well.  The players included on this list won't surprise as many as the players excluded from this list.  Exclusion from this list even if you're getting a lot of opportunity, indicates you're not performing up to a set standard (5 yards per opportunity) and can indicate overuse, or inflated value.

Devonta Freeman

The fact that Devonta Freeman is leading this list shouldn't surprise anyone.  He's widely known to be one of-if not THE-most productive backs in the league at this point, from a yards, touchdowns, or touches standpoint.  He gets carries and targets, a high percentage of his team's red zone runs, and his price on Draft Kings from week to week hasn't quite peaked to match his production yet at $7900, making him a value pick up until this week.  The question is whether or not he'll keep that production up through the season, and given his health I don't see why not, the Shanahan system tends to produce running backs that pile up yardage.  If the return of Tevin Coleman doesn't cut into his 24.5 opportunities per game too much, Freeman should continue putting up the 5.45 yards per touch he's been getting thus far.

Chris Ivory
Ivory is second on my list due primarily to the number of carries he gets, as he's not a player that hauls in too many catches (6 receptions on 8 targets through 5 games).  He does however, get the bulk of red zone touches on his team (64% in the red zone) and that percentage only climbs the closer you get to the end zone itself, going up to 84 and then 89 percent inside the ten and five yard lines, respectively.  This has lead to 4 touchdowns this season, all of them from runs starting in the red zone.  He's third in rushing attempts per game behind Matt Forte and Le'Veon Bell (both conspicuously absent from this list thus far) at nearly 21 per game, and when you factor in his ridiculous 5.74 yards per opportunity rate, you can see why he's second on this list, gaining on average nearly 131 yards per game off his 23 opportunities.

Le'Veon Bell

Bell has been noticeably absent from this list so far, primarily due to his over-usage this season-a direct result of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.  This usage has resulted in Bell carrying the ball 21.5 times per game, and getting targeted 5 times a game in the passing game as well, leaving him leading the league in opportunities by almost 2 per game: 26.5 to Freeman's 24.53.  The fact that defenses have been able to focus almost entirely on Bell however, has limited his production per opportunity to just 4.69 yards per, which ultimately pushed him down this list to third amongst those eligible for my list, at 124.25 yards of production per game.  I think the coming return of "Big Ben" will be good for Bell's production per opportunity, and while it may eat into the overall opportunities, his total isn't likely to suffer.

Todd Gurley
The rookie didn't take long to make his impact on the league, putting up back to back games in weeks 4 and 5 in the 150 rushing yard range, and sky-rocketing his value up this particular list in the process.  His 19.3 opportunities per game isn't staggering, but his 5.76 yards per opportunity puts him right up there with the best.  His carries have gone from 6 to 19 to 30 in his first three games, and I expect his usage to plateau about 25 carries per game, with a target thrown in every once in a while.  If he continues to produce at the rate he has been, he could easily find the top of this list before too long, as 25 opportunities per game at his current rate would push his overall score up this scale from the 111.14 it currently stands at to nearly 144!  Buy this guy every week you can, especially while his price remains below the level of other elite backs on this list like Bell or Freeman.

Adrian Peterson
Old reliable, Adrian Peterson has been doing it for the longest of any of the backs on this list and he just won't quit.  While he hasn't yet had any of those jaw-dropping "All Day" type games this season, he has consistently been producing when given the opportunity, and he's getting plenty of opportunities.  Now, at 4.6 yards per opportunity, he barely cleared my bar of 4.5 to qualify for the list, but his 22.6 opportunities per game built around 20 carries a game was enough to put him over 100 yards of production per game and make him 5th on this list.

Notable "Snubs"
Matt Forte
Forte is the most recognizable and surprising name not on this list, given his staggering workload of 26.3 opportunities per game.  Unfortunately, I fear the Bears may be riding him a bit too much here, driving his production per opportunity down to 4.42 yards per; just under the 4.5 per bar set for inclusion on this list.  I think if you're not producing per opportunity, forcing the opportunities is a warning sign that you're riding a guy too hard, and he's getting too much punishment.  It's a recipe for failure, and potentially injury.
Justin Forsett
Forsett is another name I thought would be on this list when I started thinking about writing this article.  Then I sat down and looked at my databases, and was surprised to discover he wasn't.  While he's heavily involved in the passing game at 5.3 targets per game, he has two teammates that cut into his carries, leaving him just over 17 attempts per game.  Multiply by a rather weak production of about 4.3 yards per opportunity, and he doesn't quite crack 100 a game, leaving him off my top 5 effective touch leaders list.
Doug Martin
Martin didn't quite make this list, as his production this season is just starting to pile up.  If he continues at the rate he's been running the past two games this weekend when he returns to action, I expect him to bring his current 99.8 rating well up over 100 in the very near future, vaulting him into the top 5 by the next time I bring you this list perhaps.

Week 7 Trap Play-Temper Your Expectations This Week

I've been thinking, I'm going to make this "Trap Play" a weekly feature.  I'll write it mid-week, warning readers a popular play, or typically strong play to steer clear of that week, and why.  We'll also go over my prior week warning, and how that worked out.  First off, to review the past two weeks' advice:

Two weeks ago, I told owners to steer clear of Julio Jones for the week.  He was just going to cost a lot, and was probably going to be owned in a high percentage of leagues that week.  In the Draft Kings leagues I was in, he was on between 15-20% of teams.  That week (against the Redskins) he caught just 5 passes on 10 targets for 67 yards and no touchdowns for 11.7 points in Draft Kings leagues.

Last week, I told people to stay away from Andy Dalton and AJ Green, that they were in a "trap" matchup vs. the Bills, whose defense was underrated.  Dalton went to Buffalo and threw 22 of 33 for 243 yards, but 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, which saved his day from total disaster, giving him 21.52 points in Draft Kings leagues.  That probably still disappointed the 20-25% of owners in Draft Kings leagues that owned him.  AJ Green caught just 4 passes on 7 targets for 36 yards and no touchdowns for 7.6 total points in Draft Kings leagues.

This week, I'm telling people to watch out for the Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald stack.  It's a juicy looking match up that I expect analysts and experts to pump up all week, so they'll be a high percentage owned pair, probably 20+% in Draft Kings leagues.  However, I think it could be a trap game, and here's why:

The Cardinals have been on a tear this year through the air, reigniting Larry Fitzgerald's career, and exciting fantasy owners everywhere.  But, there have been two games in which their offense has deeply disappointed fantasy owners: two blowout wins, one over Detroit and one over Chicago.  Only once has the passing offense in Arizona put the pedal to the metal, and destroyed the defense from start to finish; against the 49ers, an in division rival.  Baltimore is not that.  Baltimore is a team the Cardinals should beat pretty easily, and when Palmer has the chance to beat a team easily, he does so.

In Detroit, the running game carried the Cardinals to the win, and Palmer was happy to sit back and let them do so, throwing the ball just 14 times for 161 yards-although with 3 touchdowns for a low 20's fantasy point total.  Not quite what you expected in the dome at Detroit vs. a porous lions pass defense.

In Chicago, the defense and special teams won the game for the Cardinals, and again, Palmer was happy to let them do so, throwing it just 24 times for 185 yards.  Granted, he threw for 4 touchdowns-again, saving his day for fantasy owners-but his fantasy total was a bit underwhelming, considering what you might have expected going into the game.

Now, in those two blowout wins, Larry Fitzgerald has caught 4 of his 6 touchdowns, so I'd definitely advise using him as a compliment in lineups you've got $7,000 in Draft Kings to spare, and I'm not saying they'll have a bad day, I just wouldn't be shocked if they had an underwhelming day-particularly Carson Palmer-and I don't expect the teams winning GPP's to be playing a Palmer-Fitzgerald stack.

They may be a solid play for cash games though, you can probably pencil both in for 20 points each.  Just don't expect the kind of blowout game you'd get if they were in a closer contest, and Carson was throwing it 40-50 times like he did against the Rams and Steelers, putting up 300+ yard games both times.

Late Injury Notes...

We're on the eve of week 6, and some interesting tid bits have been coming out regarding injuries.  Here's a few players with injury issues I'd steer clear from in DFS this week.  If you follow me regularly, you know I shy away from players with ANY questions at all.  You just don't want to have concerns about a guy when you're playing him for one week.  It's a different animal than drafting a guy for a season, and sitting him for a few weeks while you play his backup.  Here are the guys I'm most concerned about right now:

QB Andrew Luck
Luck could have been a great play in this game.  The Patriots' defense isn't particularly good, especially their secondary which has notably lost a lot since their last match up vs. the Colts, with Revis and Browner both playing elsewhere this year, and with the expected aggression of the Patriots it would have forced a lot of throws from the Colts.  Unfortunately, Luck's been limited in practice this week, and despite having taken two games off, he may very well sit in a game the Colts are expected to be blown out in.  I'd stay away from him, and maybe think about playing the Patriots' defense.

RB Justin Forsett
The Ravens added RB Terrence McGee from their practice squad, a seemingly bad sign for Forsett this weekend in what-again-would have been a great match up vs. one of the weaker run defenses in the league in the 49ers.  This paves the way for his backup Javorious "Buck" Allen, who should get a lot of carries for a low DFS price.  He'll be a great filler in lineups.

WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Odell hasn't practiced all week, and has officially been listed as "questionable" for Monday night's game vs. the Giants.  Given the investment you need to make to get him this week (8900 in Draft Kings) and again my "no questions at all" philosophy, as well as the fact that he's playing Monday night and would be VERY hard to replace at that price at the last minute in a cost efficient manner, I'd steer FAR away from Odell this week.  In fact, I'm hoping his usage rate is high so others are potentially screwed by him while I play his teammate Reuben Randle (probable) and even Dwayne Allen or perhaps even tight end Larry Donnell.  Those three's targets should be high (I'm thinking 8-10 each) and with low prices in the 3000-4500 range on Draft Kings, they'll be great value picks/fillers for your team.

I'll update again tomorrow morning with the latest information on these players and others that may impact your lineups.

Week 6 NFL DFS Value Plays

Week 6 has already begun in lineups using Thursday night players, but with most games starting tomorrow here's a list of some value players you can put in your new lineups, or plug in for players you've already chosen but might be hearing bad injury news about now:

WR Marquess Wilson
I like Wilson this week, after being targeted 8 times last week by Cutler, and returning 6 catches for a game high 85 yards and 1 touchdown last game I expect Wilson to build upon that production, particularly if Jeffrey continues to remain sidelined.  At $4000 in Draft Kings, you're only really needing 12 or so points to justify picking Wilson up-that's 5 catches for 70 yards.  I think he can eclipse that point total no problem, and return somewhere around 20 points for owners this week on around ten targets.  Pick him up and play him.

WR Jamison Crowder
Over the past three weeks, Crowder has been targeted 6, 12, and 8 times, returning 6, 7, and 8 catches.  In those three games he's averaging 7.85 receiving yards per target, and 8+ targets per game.  If he pulls in those averages-7 catches for 63 yards-that's 13.3 points, easily justifying his 3600 cost.  Throw the potential of adding a touchdown in there, or having a breakout catch or two and he could easily put up 20 points for you at a cost of just $3,600 in Draft Kings.

WR Kamar Aiken
Daily fantasy is all about opportunity, or usage, and these days Aiken is getting that opportunity with a lot of targets.  He was targeted 11 times over the first three games, but in the last those targets have picked up pace with 16 total, for 9 catches, 155 yards, and a touchdown.  That's 15 points per game over the last two games, or more than enough to justify his price tag of $4300 on Draft Kings.

RB Charcandrick West
You can't turn on a tv to a sports network that covers football these days without hearing his name.  The heir apparent to Jamaal Charles' workload, and with a price of just $4,000 in Draft Kings, West might be the most played value play in recent history, which is the only thing that might make me look elsewhere.  Well, that and us all not knowing anything about him except Andy Reid swearing up and down that he's the guy.  We'll see.  Until then if you're looking for another value back...

RB Ronnie Hillman
Hillman and the Broncos will be facing the Browns this Sunday, who have been very weak against the run, giving up almost 140 yards on the ground to Latavius Murray in Week 3, even surrendering nearly 100 yards to Dexter McCluster in week 2.  Hillman's looking to earn the starting role, look for him to cash in on Peyton's weak arm and Kubiak's run-happy offense in Cleveland tomorrow.

RB Shane Vereen
The health of most of the Giants' WR corps is in question, and as a result we saw Vereen develop into Eli's top pass catching option on one drive last week.  I think that trend continues this week with or without the receivers in, and he sees quite a few targets.  At a cost of 4200, he doesn't have to haul in too many catches to justify his purchase.  I'm looking for as much as a 20 point game out of Vereen in which he hauls in at least 6 catches for 60 yards and possibly a touchdown.

Week 6 NFL DFS: Trap Buys

I had a paid day off from my day job this week, and had planned on doing a week 6 advice piece early, getting it out of the way.  I was going to write about Tom Brady facing the Colts, and Andy Dalton facing the Bills, but something just wasn't sitting right with me.  I know Brady's on his payback tour, and playing against the team that started it all in the Colts, and Dalton is the fantasy points leader, but still I just wasn't liking it, so I didn't write, I stewed.  Today, I realized why: Andy Dalton is a trap pick this week.

He's the fantasy points leader, like I said before, and priced at a paltry 5800 in Draft Kings leagues.  He's paired with a strong wider receiver in AJ Green, and Draft Kings has his opposing defense listed as 25TH!  But it's a trap!  Don't fall for it, I'll tell you why:

Buffalo's defense isn't as bad as it seems.  They had the bad luck of drawing New England in the second week of Tom Brady's revenge tour, and he hung over 450 yards on them that afternoon.  Because of that game, they're giving up almost 275 yards per game through the air, good for a low ranking on the defensive charts.  But take that Patriots game out, and they're only giving up 230 yards per game through the air, which would be good for just outside the top ten.  Factor in that they've held number one receivers like Julian Edelman, Odell Beckham Jr, and Jarvis Landry to under 100 yards, with top cornerback Stephon Gilmore grabbing an interception in each of his last two games, and I'm wary of Andy and AJ of the Bengals.  I worry they might be riding a little bit of excitement from their current undefeated record, and run into a tougher defense than they expect.  Their offensive line looked a bit banged up last game, with Andre Smith struggling at points, and we all know Rex loves dialing up those blitzes.  This game is quite simply, a trap.

Now as for Tom Brady, I haven't rethought him at all.  Let me be clear:  START HIM.  Brady is facing the Colts, who brought the Deflategate investigation down upon him, and set the wheels of the longest, and most ridiculous investigation in league history into motion.  Ever since the schedule came out and Brady realized even if the suspension stood he'd face the Colts early in the season, he must have been planning for this game.  I'm looking for him to potentially break records in this game, and really light up the scoreboard.  I'd take him, and all three of his top targets (Edelman, Gronkowski, and Lewis) if possible.  I might even think about Amendola if I need a value pick at the 3,000 price level to fill in a roster spot in a lineup laden with big name stars.

Stay tuned, I'll have more DFS advice later in the week.

Last Minute Pulls for NFL DFS Week 5 (Sunday 1pm edition)

Just a few last minute pulls for people:

Eddie Royal is listed as inactive for this week.  I had previously thought of him as a value pick, given his connection with Cutler and Cutler's return.  However, with him sidelined, I'm looking at Jamison Crowder, Kamar Aiken, or Leonard Hankerson to replace him, depending on how much wiggle room my salary left me.

Julio Jones-That's right.  Look, I know he's a superstar WR, and he's been playing out of this world lately, but I think the confluence of a number of things limit him this week.  I'm so late with this particular bit of advice because of the late news coming out that he felt some tightness in his hamstring in Friday's practice.  This is the primary driver to start me down the path to this decision.  However, then I started thinking about Roddy White's complaints during the week, and the potential of trading him that would be improved if he had a productive week.  Also, Hankerson's breakout game last week, combined with a return trip to his former team could mean more targets for White and Hankerson, which naturally means less targets for Julio.  I just don't think Julio is worth the 9200 on Draft Kings this week.  Hurry up and swap him out with Odell!

NFL DFS: Week 4 Building Blocks

Last week was a wild week, and if you played Devonta Freeman like I suggested you were only half surprised at the bloated fantasy scoring at the hands of running backs last weekend.  This week I'll give you a couple backs that could explode, as well as a few building blocks to build around, particularly given the absence of Tom Brady and company in their early bye week.

Building Blocks

Peyton and his receivers

Peyton and his offense have been trying to get on the same
page all season. Will this be the week they finally get it right?

I'm going back to an old reliable in fantasy this week, in Peyton Manning and his premier recievers: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  With the adoption of the pistol formation last week, Peyton looked to be back to his former self, much more comfortable with the offense.  If this compromise between Peyton and coach Kubiak continues, I look for them to build on their successful week 3 outing with an even more impressive week 4 outing against a middle of the road pass defense in the Vikings.  Their last game saw Peyton throw for 324, and Thomas and Sanders combine for 15 catches on 22 targets (more than 50% of Peyton's throws were targeted towards these two) for 179 yards and a touchdown.  Look for more of that this week.

The Bills
I'm a Patriots fan by birth (born in Mass) so naturally it hurts me a bit to write this, and to play a lineup built around the Bills, but nonetheless I have to suggest it.  Taylor has proven himself to be a legitimate thrower as well as a mobile QB.  While the Giants have eaten up some of these guys in the past, I think this time is different.  I'm playing a combination of Taylor and Percy Harvin in several lineups this week.  With Watkins hurt, Harvin should receive an even larger percentage of Taylor's targets (he's already seeing 23% of Taylor's throws come his way).  Taylor's completing 75% of his passes this season, and the Giants are the league's worst pass defense right now.  Look for Taylor and Harvin to exploit that.

Backs that can help
Lance Dunbar-Cowboys
This guy is being talked about a bit by analysts and radio hosts, but not nearly enough for a ppr league owner (or Draft Kings owner in other words).  Right now, he's a ridiculous 13th in the league for receptions, having caught 21 of the 23 passes thrown his way.  Sure he's getting almost no rushing touches, particularly with the dominance on the ground of his teammate Joseph Randle, but rushing is not the most highly valued aspect of a player's game in Draft Kings, the ppr aspect giving Dunbar more value than his teammate in my opinion.  His last game for instance-10 catches for 100 yards with 1 rush for 5 yards-was good for 23 points.  In order for a rushing type back to score those points he'd have to add two touchdowns in.  And Dunbar didn't have any.  He's a big play type of player, and he'll break that barrier on the goal line at some point.  I definitely want to be owning him when he does.

Carlos Hyde-49ers
The 49ers got absolutely embarrassed last week, and this week they'll want to do something to look better.  Kaepernick is just terrible, but Hyde is pretty great, and the Packers are giving up a staggering 5.0 yards per rushing attempt this season, suggesting to me the opportunity for the 49ers to pound the ball a bit, keeping Rodgers off the field, and their own QB from turning the ball over in the process.  Hyde could very well score big this weekend.

Stay away from:
I'm an Andy Dalton owner in my "main" fantasy league, and I'm sitting him this week there, and staying away from him in DFS as well.  The Chiefs are coming off something of a nationally televised beating, and I expect them to come out swinging.  They're also coming out with a fresh Sean Smith, who will be the biggest and best cornerback AJ Green has faced this season.  I'm not saying I have no confidence in Green (I have him on that same team also) but I think there are safer, better DFS plays this week, and coming off a dominant week in fantasy Dalton and Green are going to be a bit overvalued and overpriced.

Good luck this week everyone!